The Penguins have faced numerous challenges over the past few years – some regrettable trades and dwindling attendance. They’re on the verge of missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season, following a remarkable streak of 16 straight postseason appearances from 2007 to 2022. This year will mark only the fourth time in captain Sidney Crosby’s illustrious 20-year career that he missed the playoffs. While many media pundits speculate about his desire to join a contender, Crosby has consistently expressed his commitment to finishing his career with the Penguins and being part of their future success. The organization seems eager to accommodate him, which raises an important question: Would the Penguins trade one of Crosby’s favorite wingers for a second time in the last 18 months?
Trading Rickard Rakell has been a consideration for the Penguins; reports indicate they sought a substantial return at the NHL Trade Deadline but ultimately decided to keep the 31-year-old winger for the remainder of the season. However, not trading him this year doesn’t preclude a potential deal during the summer. Rakell has three years left on his contract with a reasonable $5MM cap hit, and his value may never be higher than it is now. The Penguins could capitalize on this opportunity and accelerate their retooling efforts, but at what cost? Crosby would lose a preferred winger again, and the Penguins lack players in their system who could effectively replace Rakell.
General manager Kyle Dubas has indicated that the franchise does not want to bottom out. They fear the emergence of a losing culture affecting their players, a concern supported by the 2010 Edmonton Oilers’ repeated struggle to escape the bottom of the NHL standings despite multiple top-five picks.
For their part, the Penguins have said they are comfortable keeping Rakell. While that won’t please the fans hoping for a tank next season, it could ultimately help the Penguins’ youth movement, who will get to study the game under the tutelage of Crosby and Rakell.
If the Pens opt to go a different direction, Rakell could be traded for a haul and possibly even lead to an impact prospect, which is missing from the Penguins’ retool and is on Dubas’ radar (as per Josh Yohe of The Athletic). The Penguins GM has done well building the prospect pipeline, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have anyone in their system who screams franchise cornerstone. The other factor when considering a Rakell move is that he wasn’t good last season, tallying just 15 goals and 22 assists in 70 games. Should he fall back to that production level, his $5MM AAV looks less appealing, which would hurt his trade value and the Penguins’ potential return.
The other Crosby winger that the Penguins could consider moving is Bryan Rust. The 32-year-old has hovered around the point-per-game mark since 2019 and has three more years on his deal at a very economical $5.13MM per season. The Pontiac, Michigan native is a two-time Stanley Cup champion with the Penguins and remains one of the last holdovers from the 2016 and 2017 teams that won back-to-back championships. Rust remains a heart and soul player for Pittsburgh, and like Rakell, his value might never be higher. Rust would likely be a more challenging trade for Pens fans to swallow, given that he was drafted and developed by the team and is viewed by many as a man who should be wearing a letter in Pittsburgh.
On the flip side, Rust would also bring a strong return to Pittsburgh and could help move the Penguins’ retool along. It’s not unreasonable to think they would get a first-round pick and a prospect or two for Rust, which makes holding onto him even more complicated, even though the Penguins are keeping their superstar captain happy in doing so.
The Penguins owe a lot to Crosby; some might say he saved the franchise in 2005. Some might also say Crosby is loyal to a fault, and given the evidence, it’s easy to see why. The 37-year-old has never taken market value on a contract, playing under an $8.7MM cap hit since the 2008-09 season, and has almost always kept himself out of team business except for the Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang contract negotiations in the summer of 2022. Crosby also watched his preferred winger, Jake Guentzel, get traded away last March without a complaint. He’s perhaps the most loyal athlete in professional sports history.
But, as mentioned earlier, the talk leading into the NHL Trade Deadline was once again about trading one of Crosby’s preferred wingers, Rakell. Rust has also been mentioned in trade rumors, and given that his entire no-move clause ends this summer, he could be a name that is moved. But what kind of a message would it send to the superstar center who has given his all to the Penguins?
Many hockey pundits have speculated on whether or not Crosby will finish his career in Pittsburgh. Still, Crosby has done everything he can to dispel those rumors, including signing a two-year extension last September. It is easy to question Crosby’s decision, given the direction of the Penguins during the previous three seasons and the roster’s current state. However, looking at what Dubas has done in the last 12 months, it’s not impossible to imagine the team returning to relevance before the end of Crosby’s aforementioned two-year extension that is set to start next season. With all of that being said, Pittsburgh is still in a retool that they refuse to call a rebuild, and Crosby still very much wants to win, which has made it difficult to embrace a rebuild fully and has put Dubas in a position where he can’t fully commit to a youth movement. Penguins’ ownership and management appear committed to the retooling strategy, and Crosby is also on board based on how he spoke to Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts podcast.
Regardless of who Dubas moves out, this offseason will be a franchise-defining one. They could push in and make aggressive moves over the next 12 months to try and get Crosby and the Penguins back into the playoff picture in what could be teammate Evgeni Malkin’s last season in the NHL.
The team could also continue gradually adding to their pipeline and draft picks. Either way, the Penguins are at a strange fork in the road as they try to navigate the past, the present, and the future of an organization that has had megastars and championships on the regular since the beginning of the 1990s.
Dubas must decide whether to retool around Sidney Crosby, which likely means keeping Rakell and Rust for one last run or leaning into a deeper rebuild that could see one or both of them sent away via trade. Whatever the case, it’s safe to assume spring and summer will bring a lot of trade winds for the Penguins, as they also have star defenseman Erik Karlsson, who will likely be traded.
Photo by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Should trade everyone. There not gonna be contenders next year they’ve got way to much to do. Need 3 top 4D, 3 top 6 forwards and a 1A goalie while also somehow already being close to a cap team
As of now they are projected to have 24 mil in cap space this off season
So they could get a Marner and 2, 5 million players still leaves them in a bad spot
I’m not saying they are not in a bad spot but they are no where near the cap. Also don’t be surprised if Karlsson is moved this summer. Create another hole but open up more cap as well.
Tons of cap and some draft capital. Two things the Pens have not had in a long time
Dubas is on his way to Russia to try and reignite his Bromance with Chelyabinsk Traktor forward Semyon Der-Arguchintsev.
What’s the goal here? To squeak in next year, get ousted early, maybe repeat it the year after and then start the rebuild without any valuable assets to trade? No team should put themselves in a position like the Blackhawks are in, where they suck for like 7-8 years, but it appears that’s where this is heading.
Hard to even blame Dubas when it feels like this short-term push is an ownership directive.
The Hawks are going to win a Cup (Cups?) again one day.
It’s teams like the Flames and Blues that try to take short cuts that won’t get all the way that should not be emulated.
I like Bedard and the Hawks prospects coming up, but as a fan I’d hate that it took almost a decade to show signs of a positive future. That was my only point with the Pens – they can speed up their next window of contention considerably by starting the teardown now (or even a year from now I guess).
I mean if you want faster rebuild then pens should try tank for mekena 26 to have faster rebuild
It took 4 consecutive years of having top 5 picks and then 3 more to develop them to win a Cup with the current core.
Aside from VGK (a unique case because of expansion, the tax situation and lifestyle as a draw for UFA’s) all of the recent Cup winners are built on top 5 or top 10 picks (and VGK had other teams’ in Eichel and Pietrangelo, too).
Recent evidence says you can’t take shortcuts.
Of the 2 I’d suggest moving rust but Rakell would bring a larger return
Let the market decide. If the package is very good, you gotta take it. If not, there is a value in having high end wingers for Sid.
Moving Geno to Sid’s wing is still an option if one gets moved.
Sid being so good in his “old age” while the rest of the team (esp. the goalies) have been bad has thrown off the timeline.
The move now is to do a Kings/Caps style rebuild (without moving good draft picks) and develop young players, either your own or guys like Tomasino and Timmins, etc., to give Sid the supporting cast he’s earned while he chases 2,000 points.
BUT then, when Sid finally goes, trade them all in their primes for a giant pile of picks and begin the Blackhawks style full teardown/tank job.
The Penguins won’t be relevant for awhile.
They will also become the laughing stock of the NHL, starting next year.