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Players Who Could Start The Season On LTIR

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While only a handful of teams project to need cap relief via long-term injured reserve to open the season, multiple candidates across the league might technically qualify for a placement. Doing so would bar the player from returning until Oct. 31 at the earliest – 24 days from the season start date of Oct. 7.

Avalanche: Logan O’Connor

O’Connor underwent hip surgery in early June. Given the five-to-six-month projected recovery window, he won’t be available until early November at best, putting him past the 10-game/24-day threshold required for LTIR. Colorado, which has $2.10MM in current cap space, will likely place O’Connor on standard IR if they don’t make any other cap-affecting moves between now and October. If they need the relief, though, they could create up to O’Connor’s $2.5MM cap hit in cushion for the first few weeks of the season if they need it.

Blues: Torey Krug

St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong announced in May that Krug’s career is done because of pre-arthritic conditions in his left ankle that surgical intervention only slowly corrected. Since the Blues only have around $625K in cap space, Krug and his $6.5MM cap hit will be going on LTIR as soon as they need the flexibility for a call-up.

Canadiens: Carey Price

What’s certain is that Price won’t play this season or ever again. He’s entering the final season of his contract at a $10.5MM cap hit after confirming nearly two years ago that his knee injury would prohibit him from suiting up again. What’s uncertain is whether or not he’ll begin the season on LTIR. Montreal isn’t in a great position to optimize its LTIR relief, either by matching his cap hit in excess or getting down to $0 in space before placing him on the list. That’s made his contract a trade chip for teams who might need the relief more.

Devils: Johnathan Kovacevic

Kovacevic underwent knee surgery in early May and won’t be ready for training camp and likely opening night as well. Whether that stretches past Oct. 31 and makes him eligible for an LTIR placement if New Jersey needs cap relief early on remains to be seen.

Flyers: Ryan Ellis, Rasmus Ristolainen

Ellis’ career is over after sustaining a wide-ranging muscular injury in his pelvis just four games into his Flyers tenure in 2021. Ristolainen underwent a procedure on his right triceps tendon on March 26 with a six-month recovery time, putting him right on the edge of potential LTIR eligibility. Philly will have a better idea of the latter’s LTIR deployment potential after he undergoes his training camp physical. With $370K in cap space, they’re in a good position for near-max LTIR capture and will almost certainly at least place Ellis there to begin the year to give them call-up flexibility.

Golden Knights: Alex Pietrangelo

Pietrangelo is already on offseason LTIR, meaning the Knights actually still have to add an additional $1.2MM to their roster before opening night to optimize his capture and unlock his full $8.8MM cap hit’s worth of relief for this season. The team confirmed he requires multiple undisclosed but significant surgeries that will likely mark the end of his playing career, but it’s unclear if he’s actually had them done yet.

Jets: Adam Lowry

Lowry underwent hip surgery in late May and won’t be available until after Thanksgiving at the earliest. Winnipeg likely won’t be formalizing an LTIR placement with nearly $4MM in cap space, though.

Mammoth: Juuso Välimäki

Välimäki underwent ACL surgery in early March. He likely won’t end up on LTIR given Utah’s current cap flexibility ($6.68MM), but he’ll be out until at least early November so he’ll be there as an early-season option in case they need relief for whatever reason.

Oilers: Zach Hyman

Hyman’s inclusion here is on the speculative side. The winger could very well be ready for the start of the season. However, there hasn’t been much clarity on how much recovery he still needs after undergoing surgery to repair a severe wrist injury that kept him out of the Stanley Cup Final. A report in early June indicated there was uncertainty about his status for training camp, with no meaningful updates since then.

Panthers: Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski earlier this month that he’s still deciding whether he wants to undergo surgery to address the adductor issue that hampered him down the stretch and in the playoffs after sustaining it at the 4 Nations Face-Off. All signs point to him opting for it and spending the next two to three months on the shelf as a result, though. Placing him on LTIR is the only way the Panthers, who currently have a cap exceedance of $3.725MM, can be compliant to start the season without shedding a significant contract, something they aren’t keen to do.

Wild: Jonas Brodin

Minnesota has $9.41MM in cap space, but that number will shrink once they re-sign restricted free agent Marco Rossi (or add salary while trading his signing rights). Neither scenario will likely push them into a situation where they need to use LTIR relief, but they might have Brodin and his $6MM cap hit as an option for some short-term flexibility if required. He underwent an upper-body procedure in early June and is questionable for the beginning of the season, so it’s not yet clear if he’ll miss enough time to qualify.

Extension Talks Slow Between Jets, Kyle Connor

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Reporting out of Winnipeg early in the offseason indicated the Jets would make an extension for top winger Kyle Connor their No. 1 priority as he hurtles toward unrestricted free agency in 2026. Talks could have started at any point before he became eligible to sign a new deal on July 1.

Yet six weeks into his eligibility period to sign an extension, there hasn’t been much reporting on the status of talks. That could change quickly as parties reconvene for training camp next month, but as of now, there hasn’t been anything beyond preliminary negotiations, independent insider Frank Seravalli told Bleacher Report earlier in the week.

The lack of negotiation stems from a lack of urgency from Connor’s camp as they “evaluate their options,” Seravalli said. It’s a sensible approach from the 28-year-old as he enters both the most pivotal in-season and offseason of his career for his earning potential.

In 613 games for the club, the 6’1″ lefty has 284 goals and 582 points. That puts him third and fourth in Jets/Thrashers franchise history, respectively, and 12th in the league in goals since he debuted in the 2016-17 season. That’s more than names like Brad Marchand, Artemi Panarin, and Steven Stamkos – all of whom have legitimate Hall-of-Fame cases – over the same period.

He’s been especially impactful coming out of the pandemic as he enters his prime. He scored 41 goals last season with a career-high 97 points to lead Winnipeg in scoring, averaging 20:24 of ice time per game and earning MVP votes for the first time. He’s now scored at or over that 41-goal pace in three of the last four seasons, notching 34 tallies in 65 games in 2023-24 for a 43-goal pace.

Needless to say, he’s a must-retain for a Jets team that relies heavily on its first line for offense, particularly after losing Nikolaj Ehlers to the Hurricanes in free agency this summer. Their depth scoring, headlined by a still-developing Cole Perfetti and a giant question mark in Jonathan Toews as he returns to the NHL, already leaves something to be desired entering the season as they look to remain atop the Central Division.

Keeping him in Winnipeg is especially important for a club that understandably struggles to position itself as a prime destination for external UFAs. While there’s still a potentially stacked 2026 class for the Jets to try to grab replacements from, landing any of the few names that actually reach the market isn’t a proven strategy general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff can rely on to replace Connor’s lost offense.

Connor’s extension projection from AFP Analytics at the beginning of the offseason checked in at eight years at $12MM per season, accounting for the projected salary cap jump to $104MM for 2026-27. If testing the market has a legitimate appeal to him, though, that offer might need to increase to the $13MM or $14MM range to dissuade him from considering other offers.

Jaydon Dureau Signs AHL Deal In Jets Organization

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The Jets’ AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose, announced yesterday that they’ve signed forward Jaydon Dureau to a one-year contract. He could be in training camp with the Jets next month on a PTO before heading to Manitoba’s camp later in September.

Dureau, 24, never broke through as a full-time AHLer after being drafted by the Lightning in the fifth round in 2020. He was nonetheless a productive player for their ECHL affiliate, the Orlando Solar Bears, where he had his best showing yet in 2024-25 with a 14-15–29 scoring line in 32 games. The 6’0″, 176-lb winger averaged 0.71 points per game with a +14 rating in 103 appearances for the Bears over the last three seasons, having signed his entry-level contract with Tampa Bay in 2022 shortly before his rights were due to expire.

In the AHL, the Saskatchewan native only managed 36 appearances with the Syracuse Crunch during his tenure in Tampa’s organization. He was only good for three goals and four assists for seven points in that time, just 0.19 points per game.

Understandably, the Lightning opted not to qualify Dureau in June and he became an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Presumably without any NHL two-way deals or notable European offers there for him, he’ll take an AHL pact with the Moose as he tries to carve out a full-time role on the second rung on the ladder of North American professional hockey. If he can’t break camp with the Moose, he’ll be slated for a fourth season spent primarily in the ECHL – this time with Winnipeg’s affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals.

The Jets already have 13 forwards under contract who are projected to begin the season in Manitoba, per PuckPedia. That means Dureau will face an uphill battle for playing time there, especially with the Moose already having four other players on AHL deals prior to his signing.

Summer Synopsis: Winnipeg Jets

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Now more than a month into the new league year, the bulk of the heavy lifting has been done from a roster perspective.  Most unrestricted free agents have found new homes, the arbitration period has come and gone, and the trade market has cooled.  Accordingly, it’s a good time to take a look at what each team has accomplished this offseason.  We begin with a look at Winnipeg.

Expectations weren’t particularly high for the Jets heading into last season on the heels of a coaching change and the roster from an ugly first-round exit largely remaining intact.  But Winnipeg was a big surprise, winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the team with the most points during the regular season while making it to the second round in the playoffs.  There have been more changes roster-wise this time around but the core largely remains intact, meaning expectations will be higher than they were at this point a year ago despite being in a tough Central Division.

Draft

1-28 – D Sascha Boumedienne, Boston University (Hockey East)
3-92 – F Owen Martin, Spokane (WHL)
5-156 – F Viktor Klingsell, Skelleftea (Sweden U20)
6-188 – D Edison Engle, Dubuque (USHL)
7-220 – F Jacob Cloutier, Saginaw (OHL)

Boumedienne entered last season as one of the more intriguing blueliners in that he was already getting exposed to college hockey, playing at Boston University.  While he held down a regular role, it wasn’t a particularly prominent one which caused him to slide down some rankings.  While his output was rather low, he was behind some key offensive defenders so the hope is that over time, Boumedienne will be able to grow that part of his game, helping pave the way for him to become a second-pairing blueliner down the road.  While the Jets have strong defensive depth today, their prospect cupboard at that position is a little thinner so he should fill that gap nicely.

Martin, a Manitoba native, dealt with a fractured foot that cost him a couple of months last season but he was still a productive player with Spokane with 34 points in 39 regular season games, giving his draft stock a boost in the process.  More of a two-way player, Martin is probably four seasons away from being NHL-ready.

The other three players have similar timelines as well.  Klingsell was productive in Skelleftea’s junior system but still has to work his way up to the pro ranks over there, a process that will take some time.  Engle is expected to move to the OHL next season as a one-and-done player, beginning his college tenure in 2026-27, meaning Winnipeg could hold his rights for up to five seasons.  As for Cloutier, he played his first full OHL campaign last season and fared pretty well with 47 points in 67 games.  They’ll only have two years to sign him as things stand as the changes to draft rights only change in the next CBA.

Trade Acquisitions

While the Jets had a fair amount of roster turnover this offseason, none of it has come from the trade front so far.

UFA Signings

D Kale Clague (one year, $775K)*
F Walker Duehr (one year, $775K)*
F Phillip Di Giuseppe (one year, $775K)*
F Samuel Fagemo (one year, $775K)*
D Haydn Fleury (two years, $1.8MM)^
F Cole Koepke (one year, $1MM)
F Gustav Nyquist (one year, $3.2MM)
F Tanner Pearson (one year, $1MM)
G Isaac Poulter (one year, $775K)*
F Mason Shaw (one year, $775K)*^
F Jonathan Toews (one year, $2MM plus $5MM in performance incentives)

*-denotes two-way contract
^-denotes re-signing

Toews was the headliner from this group, agreeing to terms a week and a half before free agency started.  He didn’t play at all last season as he recovered from Chronic Inflammatory Response Syndrome so there are some questions about his ability to last the season and if he can fill the second-line center vacancy that has been somewhat of a revolving door in recent years.  The bonuses are tied to games played (and some playoff success) which isn’t a shock and hedges their bets in case he’s unable to make it through an 82-game campaign unscathed.  Toews had 31 points in 53 games in 2022-23, his last NHL season.  If he can produce around that point-per-game rate, he’ll be able to play a key role for them.

Nyquist is coming off a down year, notching just 28 points after putting up a career-high 75 in 2023-24.  Still, he’s a middle-six winger who can help deepen the attack while also potentially slotting in on the penalty kill.  For one year, it’s a reasonable move, especially if they think his offense will bounce back this season.

Pearson needed a training camp PTO to eventually land a deal with Vegas and became a valuable fourth liner while Koepke was a regular for the first time last year in Boston, adding some physicality to their fourth line.  Both players are likely to play similar roles on a new-look fourth line for Winnipeg next season.  The remainder of their signings are of the depth variety though a handful of their two-way forwards could plausibly see time with Winnipeg at some point in 2025-26.

RFA Re-Signings

F Morgan Barron (two years, $3.7MM)
D Tyrel Bauer (one year, $775K)*
F Parker Ford (two years, $1.6MM)*
D Isaak Phillips (two years, $1.6MM)*
D Dylan Samberg (three years, $17.25MM)
F Gabriel Vilardi (six years, $45MM)

*-denotes two-way contract

Vilardi was the big ticket for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to deal with this summer.  The centerpiece of the return for Pierre-Luc Dubois last summer, Vilardi had his best season by a significant margin, tallying 27 goals and 34 assists in 71 games during the regular season, setting personal bests across the board including in games played.  Two years away from UFA eligibility, the question was would both sides commit to a long-term deal and clearly, they were comfortable doing so.  This deal ensures that a key cog of Winnipeg’s forward group is sticking around for the long haul; it’s particularly notable after another key cog departed on the open market last month.

There was quite a gap to bridge in the arbitration filings between Samberg and the team but they settled on this contract, a deal that buys Winnipeg an extra two years of club control.  He’s coming off a breakout year, one that saw him move from being a depth defender to a key part of their top four and their top shutdown option.  It’s not always easy to find the proper market value for that type of player but the Jets are banking on Samberg staying at this level moving forward.

Barron is likely to be the lone holdover from the fourth line, a role he has filled for the last couple of seasons after being deployed on the third line a bit more often in 2022-23.  A natural center, he has primarily played on the wing since becoming a regular with Winnipeg but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him shift over since last year’s fourth line center isn’t with them for the upcoming season.

Departures

F Mason Appleton (Detroit, two years, $5.8MM)
D Dylan Coghlan (Vegas, one year, $775K)
G Chris Driedger (Chelyabinsk, KHL)
F Nikolaj Ehlers (Carolina, six years, $51MM)
F Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (Brynas, SHL)
F Rasmus Kupari (Lugano, NL)
F Simon Lundmark (Tampa Bay, two years, $1.55MM)*
F Brandon Tanev (Utah, three years, $7.5MM)
F Dominic Toninato (Chicago, two years, $1.7MM)*

*-denotes two-way contract

Ehlers is the obvious headliner from the group.  He had suggested in the past that he felt that he should be getting more ice time given his success when healthy so it wasn’t a shock that he tested the open market although he may have a similar role with Carolina than he had in Winnipeg.  When healthy, Ehlers has been a consistent 20-plus goal-scorer and while the Jets added some forward depth, none of their acquisitions are likely to reach that mark, creating a void that’s going to need to be filled by committee.

Appleton wasn’t able to replicate his breakout 36-point effort from 2023-24 despite being a middle-six regular for most of the year.  While the two aren’t necessarily the same player stylistically, Nyquist is likely to take his spot on the roster.  Tanev was a trade deadline acquisition with an eye on adding some grit to the fourth line.  He was decent in that role down the stretch but moved on in free agency with Koepke effectively being his replacement.

Kupari opted to sign overseas in early June, a move that came as some surprise.  But clearly, he was looking to play somewhere where he could have more of an offensive opportunity and he’ll get that in Switzerland.  He received a two-year deal, one that walks him right to UFA eligibility although Winnipeg issued a qualifying offer to retain his rights in the short term.  Jonsson-Fjallby and Toninato didn’t see much NHL action last season but have been among the regular recalls in recent years.  Players like Duehr and Di Giuseppe figure to take those spots on the depth chart.

Salary Cap Outlook

By structuring Toews’ contract with $5MM of bonuses and not adding any big-ticket contracts in free agency, Winnipeg is in pretty good shape to start the season with a little over $3.8MM in cap space, per PuckPedia.  A good chunk of that money could ultimately be used to pay for some of the bonuses that Toews reaches but if the Jets are in contention heading toward the trade deadline, they could instead spend their cap room on win-now help, pushing some of the bonuses onto their 2026-27 cap in the process.  Cheveldayoff has left himself some decent wiggle room heading into the season.

Key Questions

Will Connor Be Extended? Two years ago, Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele signed long-term extensions entering the final year of their deals, keeping Winnipeg in a spot to be competitive at a minimum for the long haul.  Last year, Ehlers clearly didn’t do the same.  What will happen to this year’s core player on an expiring deal, Kyle Connor?  He has notched at least 30 goals in four straight years and is coming off a season that saw him score 41 goals and 56 assists for a career-best 97 points.  A legitimate top-line scorer, Connor appears to be well on his way toward landing a contract with at least a double-digit AAV.  The Jets have the cap space to give him that type of deal but will they be able to get it done?

Will Winnipeg Move Some Defensive Surplus? With Fleury re-signing just before free agency, Winnipeg fits itself with nine defensemen on one-way contracts.  Considering it’s unlikely they’ll carry just 12 forwards and nine defenders, something has to give.  Ville Heinola, their former top prospect, hasn’t played much between injuries and being a waiver-blocked healthy scratch last season but they might get a bit of interest in his services.  Logan Stanley once had a trade request in play and after five seasons with the Jets, he still hasn’t progressed past being a low-minute third-pairing piece when he’s in the lineup.  But, at six-foot-seven, someone would take a flyer on him.  If Fleury is eyed as the ideal seventh option, both Heinola and Stanley are on the outside looking in.  Will they find a trade for one or try to sneak one through waivers?

Can Perfetti Take The Next Step? Winnipeg has taken the slow and steady route with Cole Perfetti.  The 10th overall pick in 2020 has seen his playing time managed carefully to the point where he only nudged past the 15-minute mark for the first time last season, a year that saw him reach 50 points.  With Ehlers gone and their newcomers being more secondary options, it feels like Perfetti should have a chance to secure a bit more playing time.  If he has success in that role, he’d go a long way toward helping replace the offense Ehlers brought to the table while positioning himself nicely for a trip through restricted free agency next summer when he’ll have salary arbitration rights for the first time.

Photos courtesy of Jamie Sabau (Toews) and Terrence Lee (Vilardi and Connor)-Imagn Images. 

Chibrikov and Lambert Poised To Breakout

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  • While the Winnipeg Jets added veteran leadership to their forward group this offseason by signing the likes of Jonathan Toews and Gustav Nyquist, NHL.com’s Darrin Bauming wonders if a few rising forward prospects could crack the lineup to start the season. Bauming lists both 22-year-old Nikita Chibrikov and 21-year-old Brad Lambert as being “on the cusp” of regular NHL time. Chibrikov appeared in four games for the Jets last season, recording three points. The 5’10”, 175-pound winger added 18 points in 30 games for the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Lambert posted 35 points in 61 games last season for Manitoba, and 55 points in 55 points in 64 games for the squad the year before. The native of Finland has yet to appear in an NHL game but should break through at some point this upcoming season.

Snapshots: Barkey, Samberg, Schaefer

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The Philadelphia Flyers have leaned fully into the rebuild since Daniel Briere was hired as general manager in 2023. They’ve moved out multiple veterans in exchange for draft capital – and built out one of the league’s strongest prospect pools as a result. It’s a group full of blue chips, including star OHL scorer Denver Barkey, who told Jordan Hall of NBC Sports Philadelphia that he’s ready for the challenge of his first pro season, and another attempt to make the NHL roster.

Barkey scored an impressive 102 points in 60 total games this season, good for second among London Knights’ forwards behind Easton Cowan (108). It was an impressive season, capped off by a Memorial Cup win, but Barkey told Hall that he knows pushing into pros will be a tough feat for a 5-foot-9 winger. He received plenty of praise from the Flyers development team, including team consultant Patrick Sharp, despite that.

Another hot hand will raise interesting questions about the Flyers’ deployment next season. Barkey will join players like Alex Bump, Jett Luchanko, and Oliver Bonk in pushing to make the roster. Philadelphia ranked as the third-youngest lineup in the league last season, but could be swayed to lean even further into the youth movement with a couple of strong training camp performances.

Other notes from around the league:

  • More has been revealed about Dylan Samberg’s three-year extension with the Winnipeg Jets. Most notably, the deal will carry a modified no trade clause in its final two years, per PuckPedia. That’s a nice bit of security for Samberg, from a team known for hanging onto their hard-working defenders. Samberg has spent the last four years in Winnipeg. But that’s a junior tenure compared to Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo, who have been in Winnipeg for six years, and Josh Morrissey, a Jet for all 10 years of his career. Samberg earned a strong role as a shutdown defender last season, and finished the year with a team-leading plus-34. He’ll look to continue digging his feet into the defensive end with a few more years in Winnipeg.
  • New York Islanders first-overall pick Matthew Schaefer played his first competitive game of the calendar year today – stepping up as Team Canada’s top left-defender in their bout against Team Finland at the World Junior Summer Showcase. Canada lost the matchup by a score of 6-3, with Schaefer recording no scoring. He also played in a split-team scrimmage between Canada Red and White yesterday, with no scoring. Despite that, his show of smooth and confident hockey are a welcome sign of recovery after he sustained a broken collarbone in December’s World Junior Championships. Schaefer scored 22 points in 17 OHL games prior to his injury, and hasn’t yet declared his intentions for next season.

Jets, Dylan Samberg Avoid Arbitration

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8:56 a.m.: The Jets have confirmed Samberg’s new deal. The contract pays him $4.25MM in 2025-26 and $6.5MM each in 2026-27 and 2027-28, according to Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Free Press.

7:06 a.m.: The Jets have agreed to a three-year deal with defenseman Dylan Samberg, avoiding his arbitration hearing that was set for later today, Murat Ates of The Athletic was first to report. The only restricted free agent so far to even get to the point of swapping arbitration figures with his club lands a $5.75MM AAV for a total value of $17.25MM.

Samberg wasn’t under team control past this offseason, so he was only eligible for a one-year deal had the two sides needed their hearing to come to terms. He lands an extra two years of security and will become an unrestricted free agent in 2028 – quite close to his likely career peak at age 29 – and lands a salary quite close to his reported $6MM filing in the process. With Samberg now under contract, the Jets have avoided arbitration hearings with their entire class: Samberg, Morgan Barron, and Gabriel Vilardi.

Samberg, 26, has put up monster defensive results from the jump since becoming a full-time NHLer in 2022-23, but only last season did he prove he could carry that over into top-four minutes. In 60 appearances, he logged a career-high 6-14–20 scoring line with a +34 rating, leading the Jets and ranking seventh in the league. He received his toughest defensive deployment to date (58.6 dZS% at even strength) but flourished as Winnipeg’s No. 2 lefty behind Josh Morrissey, helping anchor their second pairing with Neal Pionk while posting a 51.1 CF% and 55.0 xGF%.

For a Jets team whose defensive success over the past few seasons has been driven more by goaltender Connor Hellebuyck than the team’s possession play, those are great numbers. He averaged 21:08 per game last season, and without any meaningful changes on Winnipeg’s blue line this summer, he’s in line for that kind of deployment presumably for the life of this deal.

Putting contracts signed under the pressure of a looming arbitration hearing into context isn’t always a perfect art, but the end result here isn’t too far off from what past comparables projected. AFP Analytics projected a five-year, $5.2MM AAV agreement for Samberg at the beginning of the offseason. That would make this shorter-term pact look a tad pricey, but that figure didn’t take into account the rash of rich deals that have been handed out to big stay-at-home lefties this summer. Considering Nicolas Hague’s four-year, $5.5MM AAV deal and Kevin Bahl’s six-year, $5.35MM contract, the deal is within range, even if the Jets may have paid a small premium to ensure they retain him past this season.

With that, Maple Leafs winger Nicholas Robertson has the only open arbitration case. His hearing is scheduled for Sunday.

Arbitration Breakdown: Dylan Samberg

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Entering the arbitration season, the Winnipeg Jets had the most pending cases. They’ve already settled with Morgan Barron on a two-year, $3.7MM agreement and Gabriel Vilardi on a long-term six-year, $45MM contract. They have one outstanding case remaining with defenseman Dylan Samberg, whom Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed filing details for this morning.

Filings

Team: $2.5MM
Player: $6MM
Midpoint: $4.25MM

The Numbers

Samberg is coming off the best season of his NHL career. Although he was limited to 60 games, he scored six goals and 20 points, both of which are career highs. He also averaged the highest ice time of his career (21:08), which was good for fourth on the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets.

He did finish with the highest +/- rating on the team, although it’s somewhat of an outlier. His 51.2% CorsiFor% was second on the team among defenseman behind Josh Morrissey, but his 91.7% on-ice save percentage at even strength was fourth among defensemen with 20 or more games played. This means that although Samberg was an above-average defenseman for Winnipeg this past season, some of his rating can be explained by the superb work of Connor Hellebuyck behind him.

Still, all of Samberg’s possession and defensive metrics point to him being one of the better defensive defensemen options on the Jets. The team already relies on Morrissey and Neal Pionk for point production from the blue line, giving Samberg more responsibility to shut down the opposing team’s top forward units. Winnipeg feels comfortable putting Samberg in difficult situations, as he started 58.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone last year.

2022-23 Stats: 60 GP, 6-14-20, +34 rating, 26 PIMs, 95 shots, 21:08 ATOI, 51.2 CF%
Career Stats: 216 GP, 9-42-51, +63 rating, 98 PIMs, 235 shots, 16:54 ATOI, 52.1 CF%

Potential Comparable

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contract below fits within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Samberg’s negotiation. 

The best potential comparison to Samberg this summer would be Nicolas Hague, who signed a four-year, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV) contract with the Nashville Predators after being acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights. The two are separated by 70 days in age, although Hague has played in 148 more games and has a Stanley Cup ring to his name.

Hague has reached a peak of 17 points in a season, which he has accomplished twice in his career. On average, he has logged about 30 seconds more ice time than Samberg and has started most of his shifts in the defensive zone over the past two years. In contrast, Samberg holds an advantage in possession and defensive metrics.

However, Hague has not had the opportunity to play in front of a goaltender of Hellebuyck’s caliber at any point in his career. Furthermore, despite having a similar frame, Hague is much more physical than Samberg and brings valuable championship experience to the table.

Projection

Given that there are only a few days before Samberg’s arbitration case, it’s unlikely that the two sides will agree on a long-term deal. The Saginaw, MN native is only a year removed from becoming an unrestricted free agent, and there’s been no indication one way or another if he’d like to extend in Winnipeg.

Ultimately, this case will likely play out as they normally do, with the arbitrator falling closer to the middle ground, which would be $4.5MM in this instance. There could be some wiggle room, depending on each side’s arguments, but it’s unlikely to differ far from that.

Photo courtesy of Terrence Lee-Imagn Images.

Details Of Jets, Dylan Samberg Arbitration Filing

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According to Sportnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the details of Dylan Samberg’s arbitration filing have become public. Since he can become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, Samberg can only be given a one-year deal by the arbitrator. According to Friedman, the Winnipeg Jets have filed at $2.5MM, while Samberg has filed at $6MM.

As Friedman noted in his report, these filings are strategic, as there’s little to no chance that an honest arbitrator would side outright with Samberg’s camp. Samberg and his representation are likely hoping for the arbitrator to meet somewhere in the middle, giving Samberg a substantial raise on his previous $ 1.4 million salary. Still, if Samberg has a legitimate expectation for $6MM, there’s little chance that he and the Jets will come to a compromise before his arbitration case on July 30th.

He’s coming off a quality year with the Jets, scoring six goals and 20 points in 60 games with a +34 rating, averaging 21:08 of ice time per game. Although his +/- was exceptional, much of that is due to the fantastic play of Connor Hellebuyck this past season. Samberg finished fourth on the team among defensemen (with more than 20 games played) in on-ice save percentage at even strength with a 91.7% rating.

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Nathan Beaulieu Announces Retirement

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Former first-round pick Nathan Beaulieu has announced his retirement from professional hockey, according to the NHLPA.

Beaulieu, 32, hangs up his skates after playing 471 NHL games for the Canadiens, Sabres, Jets, and Ducks. The longtime bottom-pairing defenseman last appeared with Anaheim in the 2022-23 season, spending the last two campaigns in Europe but playing sparingly due to injuries.

The Ontario native was the No. 17 overall pick of the 2011 draft by Montreal from the QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs after helping guide the team to a Memorial Cup championship and being named to the tournament’s All-Star team. He was a tantalizing junior prospect, never outright dominating offensively but still putting up strong point production with dominant defensive impacts while playing a highly physical brand of hockey.

While his physicality translated to the professional level, the other parts of his game only did so in short bursts. Beaulieu only ever topped 20 points in a season once, making a career-high 74 appearances for Montreal in 2016-17 while receiving significant power-play deployment for the only time in his career. He averaged 19:29 per game for the Habs that year, putting together a 4-24–28 scoring line with 102 blocks.

Aside from that, he was still a serviceable bottom-pairing piece for the Habs for a few years after emerging as a full-time NHLer in 2014-15. He ended up recording 60 points and a +19 rating in 225 games for the team that drafted him before he was traded to the Sabres in the 2017 offseason.

After the trade, Beaulieu was firmly relegated to being a No. 7 option. He never made more than 60 appearances in a season after that relative breakout of a 2016-17 campaign, averaging 15:27 per game for Buffalo, Winnipeg, and Anaheim over his final six NHL seasons.

Beaulieu’s final NHL season saw him thrown to the wolves on a severely understaffed Ducks defense in 2022-23, recording four points and a -23 rating in 52 games with ghastly possession numbers. That tanked his value the following summer and led to his move overseas to Switzerland’s EHC Kloten, where he only had two points in 13 games before a hand injury ended his season.

The veteran lefty signed on with Barys Astana of the KHL for 2024-25, but was released after eight games with financial issues forcing the club to part ways with all of its import players. He quickly landed with HC Nove Zamky of the Slovak Extraliga but did not make an appearance for them due to injury.

Beaulieu finishes his career with 12 goals, 86 assists, 98 points, and a -14 rating in 471 regular-season games while averaging 16:18 per night. He also had five points in 21 playoff games with Montreal and Winnipeg. All of us at PHR wish him the best in retirement.

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