PHR Mailbag: Playoffs, Levi, Rangers, Flames, Kantserov

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at what has been a busy season for the Rangers on the trade front and what’s potentially to come, assessing Calgary’s notable trade from earlier in the year, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in one of our next two columns.

Cla23: If the playoffs started today which teams are Paper Tigers?

Assuming we’re not talking about the Wild Card teams, let’s look at the ones whose spots are more secure.  In the East, I don’t trust the Metropolitan Division outside of Washington (and even then, with it being their first real playoff run in a while, an upset wouldn’t shock me).  Carolina’s underlying numbers are always strong but they typically struggle to score in the postseason and are a weaker team on that front compared to the past.  I think they’ll get by New Jersey whose injuries are probably going to be too much to overcome but as a perceived contender in past years, the Hurricanes won’t get over the hump.  I could see any of the top three teams in the Atlantic coming out of that division so I can’t nitpick on them too much.

Out West, I still have some doubts about Winnipeg.  Connor Hellebuyck is a great goalie but teams have figured him out in the playoffs the last couple of times.  They still don’t have a true second center which is probably going to hurt as well.  On paper, I think they’re a weaker team than Dallas and Colorado and the Jets will have to go through one of them.  A long run for Winnipeg would be great for that market and core group but I’d be surprised if it happened.  In the Pacific, I’m leery about Edmonton’s chances of making it out of the division let alone the conference again.  I think they’ll get past Los Angeles assuming that matchup holds but their goaltending remains a big question mark, as does the secondary scoring.  Can their top group carry them again?  Sure.  Will they?  I’m not so sure about that.

The Duke: Is Devon Levi an AHL lifer?

Things certainly haven’t gone great for Levi this season.  Originally expected to see a lot of time with Buffalo and maybe a bit of time with AHL Rochester to get a few more games in, it instead has been the exact opposite.  Levi has a 4.12 GAA with a .872 SV% in nine appearances with the Sabres this season which played a big role in them going and reclaiming James Reimer from Anaheim early in the year.  That brings his overall NHL numbers to a 3.29 GAA and a .894 SV% in 39 games.  It’s certainly fair to say that things haven’t gone as planned for him so far.

But there is some reason for optimism with Levi still.  His numbers with AHL Rochester last year were stellar.  His numbers this season are reasonably close (a little lower of a GAA and SV%) and are still well above league average.  Yes, he’s playing behind a more veteran-laden team down there that’s good defensively but that tells me he can still bring something to the table.  People have been saying this for year but one day, Buffalo is going to be good again.  A lot will come from their core young blueliners getting better which just takes time and reps.  In a year or two when they’re better, it wouldn’t shock me if Levi performs a lot better for the Sabres.

Levi is still 23 and when you consider his first pro season was only a handful of games, it’s really only his second full professional campaign.  Goalies generally have a longer and more gradual development curve; Levi only has 59 AHL games under his belt so far when lots of good prospects get double that.  There’s still up to two years of waiver exemption left (though that will end once he gets into 21 more NHL games) so there’s still a fair bit of time for him to improve.

If it was me in charge, I’d be looking for another one-year stopgap option between the pipes to back up Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.  Levi needs plenty of playing time and giving him that behind a defense that’s still going through some growing pains might do more damage development-wise.  A year or two from now, both he and Buffalo’s back end will be more ready and I expect he’ll fare better at that time.  Levi might not be their long-term starter of the future but I still think he’s going to be at least a capable NHL netminder down the road.

Schwa: Curious to hear your thoughts on Chris Drury’s attempts to ‘retool’ the NYR roster. I think he certainly blew up the locker room chemistry, but obviously cleared some bad contracts that he inherited.

– Do you see Kreider and maybe Mika (if he waives trade protection) moving out this summer? Seems to further prioritize cap at risk of further damage to the room? What kind of trade value do you see here – or is this an attach an asset to rid the contract?

– Also, thoughts on the D extensions, I feel Borgen has been better than expected, while Urho and Soucy seem to maybe block some AHL prospects/Zac Jones. Is K’Andre going to see an extension as well? Perhaps price dependent?

The ruthlessness that Drury showed unloading those bad contracts (Barclay Goodrow and Jacob Trouba) was something we rarely see.  It accomplished the objective of getting them off the books without any lingering effects which was good but it’s also ruffled some feathers, so to speak.  It wouldn’t shock me if that has played a role in some of their struggles, especially in the first half of the season but that’s obviously impossible to quantify.

The return for Trouba was pretty light but with freeing up the cap space being the key objective, it looks better in that lens.  The Kaapo Kakko trade was pretty underwhelming but getting someone that’s going to turn into a long-term piece makes that look a little better.  I didn’t mind the J.T. Miller trade from a value perspective although being a buyer with where they were in the standings is a bit odd.  But when the opportunity presents itself to get an impact player, you can’t turn it down thinking it’s just not the right time.  The return for Ryan Lindgren felt a tad light but if Juuso Parssinen turns into a decent piece, that can still be turned around.  I liked the Reilly Smith return a lot while the Carson Soucy trade was a bit of a head-scratcher.  All in all, it’s kind of a mixed bag.  Lots of change, a definite turn in the types of players they added, and in the end, they’re still largely mediocre.

Chris Kreider has two years left on his contract after this one with a $6.5MM AAV.  He’s not having a particularly good year but barring injury, he’ll pot 20 goals once again and we all know his scoring prowess from the previous few seasons.  Someone’s going to think a change of scenery can spark him.  Considering that he can play with a bit of an edge still, I think there’s a Trouba-like market for him.  Someone will take the contract on and New York could get a small something in return while getting out of the entirety of the deal.  But if they wanted to pay that down for a couple of years, I think they could get a decent prospect for Kreider’s services.  They won’t need to attach an asset to move him.

As for Mika Zibanejad, that one’s a tougher call.  He has three years at $8.5MM per season left which is a bit of a bigger ticket to take on, especially with his production dipping considerably as well.  That third year is the hard part as we saw with Trouba that teams will take on two for cheap.  But it’s not a deep center market in free agency and there will be teams who miss out.  Would one take themselves out of the mix early to take on Zibanejad for next to nothing?  I think a few might.  But Zibanejad has the hammer here with a no-move clause that takes doing what they did with Goodrow off the table.  If he limits his market to only a handful of teams that aren’t the best of fits, New York might have to retain some money, attach an asset, or take a multi-year deal in return to balance the money.  The path to move him will be trickier.

As for the defense extensions and acquisitions, that’s a mixed bag.  I like Will Borgen but I don’t like five years at $4.5MM per season for him.  With the year he’s having, I can’t see him beating that if he went to free agency.  He’s a useful player in the right role and good righties are hard to get but that extension seemed like too much, too soon.  Urho Vaakanainen for two years at $1.55MM also feels a little high for someone who is more of a reserve or depth player but it’s not terrible.  And adding Soucy gives them a pricey third-pairing option that cuts into money they will need to re-sign K’Andre Miller this summer.  I do expect him to get a one-year deal around his $4.646MM qualifying offer as his trade market will be weakened after a rough year.  He’s two years away from UFA eligibility so a bounce-back showing in 2025-26 could net him the long-term agreement it looked like he’d be landing not that long ago.

uvmfiji: Frost/Farabee trade. Woof.

So, let’s check in on the two newest Flames, shall we?  The results, well, haven’t been pretty.  Frost has two goals and four assists in 18 games while Farabee has three goals and two helpers in that same stretch.  For players who have shown themselves to have some offensive upside in the past (Farabee is only a year removed from tallying 50 points while Frost had over 40 points the last two years before this), it’s fair to say that Calgary was hoping they’d be able to contribute more than they have so far.

The fit with how Ryan Huska has the Flames playing is a bit of a question mark.  Calgary is a team that plays low-event hockey with lots of attention to detail on defense and positioning.  With a roster that isn’t the most talented on paper, that makes sense too.  But those two players weren’t exactly known for that with the Flyers so now they’re trying to learn a new system and play a little differently than they were before.  Accordingly, some early struggles may be disappointing but they’re also understandable.

I’d still do that trade from Calgary’s standpoint without hesitation today.  Yes, there’s risk in three more years at $5MM for Farabee but they have plenty of cap space with the Upper Limit rising quickly and if he can get back to his 2023-24 form, they’ll make out quite well.  Frost has another RFA year left and probably gets a short-term deal that buys a season or two of eligibility at a price tag that isn’t going to be a drag on anything the Flames want to do in the short term.  To get that for a pricey rental whose standalone value was quite limited (Andrei Kuzmenko), a player who cleared waivers at the beginning of the year (Jakob Pelletier), and a second-round pick, that’s still solid work from an asset accumulation perspective.  Meanwhile, we’ll see what the Flyers have planned for that extra cap space this summer.

Unclemike1526: What are the realistic odds that the Blackhawks can get Kantserov to come over from Russia next year? Asking for whoever the Hawks hire for a coach next year.

The realistic odds here would be slim to nil.  Roman Kantserov is signed through next season with Metallurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL.  Unlike most international federations, there isn’t a transfer agreement between the NHL and Russia so it’s not as if Chicago can sign Kantserov to an entry-level deal that supersedes the KHL one and pay a prescribed fee.

Now, if Metallurg was to release Kantserov early, then he could go and sign with the Blackhawks.  But he’s their second-leading scorer despite missing 21 games due to injury; he has 13 goals and 25 assists through 47 outings.  Knowing that, what would be their motivation to release him early?

Players can buy their way out of a contract but NHL teams aren’t able to contribute to that while Kantserov is obviously capped at what he can earn on an entry-level pact with Chicago so it’s not like the Blackhawks could up his offer high enough to cover the buyout that way.  So this doesn’t seem like a viable option either.  Maybe they work out something that says if he doesn’t make the NHL roster, he has to go back to the KHL (a European Assignment Clause); that’s about the only semi-realistic option there is.  But again, what incentive does Metallurg have to agree to that?

Realistically speaking, the earliest the Blackhawks will probably see Kantserov is the 2026-27 season.  KHL contracts now expire at the end of May and with all due respect to Chicago’s fans, I don’t think there’s much of a chance they’ll be playing into June in 2026.  More patience will be needed before he can come to North America.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images.