Salary Cap Deep Dive: Detroit Red Wings

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR is looking at every NHL team and giving a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up is the Red Wings.

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Hit: $85,238,023 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Simon Edvinsson (two years, $894.1K)
F Marco Kasper (three years, $886.7K)

Potential Bonuses
Edvinsson: $850K
Kasper: $1MM
Total: $1.85MM

Kasper’s first full NHL season has been solid thus far with the Red Wings not throwing a lot at him, allowing him to ease his way in.  That doesn’t necessarily bode well for him from a bonus perspective but development-wise, it’s not a bad strategy.  At this point, it would seem like a bridge contract would make sense for his next contract but a breakout effort next year could change those plans.

Edvinsson has certainly been an impactful blueliner in his first full NHL campaign.  The offensive numbers don’t jump off the chart but defensively, he’s quickly becoming a core piece.  Speculatively, he’s someone Detroit might want to bypass a bridge deal with in 2026 and if his production stays around the level it is now, he won’t be able to command top dollar.  He could seemingly use Kaiden Guhle’s contract as a barometer ($5.5MM AAV for six years) although in a higher cap environment, the comparable could push past the $6MM mark on a deal of that length.  Bonus-wise, he’s well on his way to reaching two of his four ‘A’ bonuses (ATOI and plus/minus) while he’s within striking distance hitting the other two with blocks and assists.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Jonatan Berggren ($825K, RFA)
D Albert Johansson ($775K, RFA)
F Christian Fischer ($1.125MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Patrick Kane ($4MM, UFA)
G Alex Lyon ($900K, UFA)
F Tyler Motte ($800K, UFA)
D Jeff Petry ($2.344MM, UFA)*

*-Montreal is retaining $2.344MM on Petry’s deal while Pittsburgh is retaining an additional $1.563MM.

Potential Bonuses
Kane: $2.5MM

Kane’s second season with the Red Wings hasn’t gone quite as well as his first.  After hovering near the point-per-game mark in 2023-24, he isn’t producing close to that level this year while dealing with some injuries.  Nonetheless, the bonus-laden structure shields Detroit a bit.  Speaking of those bonuses, he has already reached $1.5MM of those and if he stays healthy the rest of the way, he’ll get at least another $250K.  The other $750K ($500K for making the playoffs and $250K for making the playoffs and getting 60 points) are less likely although if Detroit was to move Kane to a contender at the trade deadline, he could still reach that.  With how this year has gone, a similar one-year deal could still be doable, perhaps with a bit less guaranteed money in there.

Fischer is having a rough year and while he has a track record of being a good fourth liner, a small dip into the six figures still seems likely for him.  Berggren has arbitration eligibility and with a 28-point rookie season under his belt and being on pace for a similar number this year, doubling his current price tag could be doable.  If Detroit doesn’t want to take the risk of an award from a hearing, he could be a non-tender candidate as well.  Motte has been just above the minimum salary the last couple of years and although he’s a serviceable penalty killer, it’s possible he might wind up dropping to the minimum salary of $775K for next season.

For many years, Petry was a solid top-four defender who could handle top-pairing minutes when needed.  That’s not the case anymore.  He’s more of a fourth or fifth option at this point and at 37, there’s a risk of the decline being fairly steep.  Accordingly, he’s likely looking at going year-to-year now.  Something around the price that Detroit is responsible for on his current contract might be reasonable with some incentives pushing the potential total past the $3MM mark as well.  Johansson is in his first NHL season and has had a limited role thus far.  He’s arbitration-eligible as well which should allow him to get more than his $813K qualifying offer.  Something a little closer to the $1MM mark could be doable.

Lyon has become quite a bargain for Detroit.  Originally viewed as a third-string option, he took over as the starter last year and has improved on those numbers this season albeit in more of a backup role.  With the way the market has gone for higher-end backups lately, a short-term deal around the $3MM mark is where his market could fall.  Husso, on the other hand, was supposed to be the starter when acquired but has played his way down to third-string status.  It’s hard to see him getting an offer to be a backup goalie this summer but because he has done well in the minors and has a bit of a track record in the AHL, he could land a deal similar to what Lyon’s getting now, a one-way pact worth more than the minimum to be an experienced third option.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Ben Chiarot ($4.75MM, UFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($2MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl (3.4MM, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Joe Veleno ($2.275MM, RFA)

Tarasenko had to settle for a one-year deal in 2023 and, despite having a solid season, he didn’t seem to have a strong market last summer, yielding this two-year pact at a small pay cut instead.  This season hasn’t gone well for the 33-year-old and it’s possible that Detroit looks to try to move him to get out of the second year of the contract.  If this production carries over into next season, he could be dropping closer to the $3MM range on his next deal.  Veleno has never been able to carry over his offensive success in junior to the pros although he has become a capable checker.  His deal is a little front-loaded, meaning the qualifying offer only checks in at $1.75MM which is notable as if his usage continues as more of a fourth liner, that’s more of the price range he should be in.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible and a likely non-tender candidate if a deal can’t be reached by the start of the 2026 free agent period.

Chiarot’s contract drew some ire when it was signed a couple of years ago as a high price for someone who’s probably best served in a fourth role.  He plays enough to make the price tag somewhat reasonable although for someone who doesn’t contribute a lot offensively, it’s still on the high side and it’s one Detroit could try to get out of if they want to open up some flexibility this summer.  He’ll be 35 for his next trip on the open market and it’s hard to imagine he’d get this type of money again.  A deal with an AAV starting with a three might be more plausible.

Holl’s contract seemed like quite an overpayment given his limited usage late in his time with Toronto.  Unfortunately for them, that has largely been the case.  He cleared waivers in October but has spent most of the year with Detroit in a limited role.  He’s a possible buyout candidate or could be moved with retention.  Either way, his next deal might not be worth half of this one.  Gustafsson had a strong year with the Rangers which allowed him to get a multi-year contract for the first time since 2018.  He hasn’t produced at the same level with the Red Wings but the cost is low enough that it shouldn’t be much of a burden.  He’ll need to pick up the pace in terms of his points though as otherwise, he’s probably back in the year-to-year territory with a cost closer to half of what he’s making now.

Talbot opted for the security of a two-year deal last summer over going year-to-year which, at 37, probably wasn’t a bad strategy for someone viewed as more of a platoon option at this point.  He has been more than that for Detroit as he has been their primary netminder while putting up numbers above league average.  That said, if there’s another contract coming, it’d be for his age-39 year so the cost will likely be low even if he keeps up this level of performance.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Andrew Copp ($5.625MM, UFA)
F Alex DeBrincat ($7.875MM, UFA)

DeBrincat and the Red Wings couldn’t work out a long-term deal after he was acquired so the sides settled on a medium-term pact instead.  It’s working out reasonably well so far although the price tag is a little high for someone whose production is in the lower-end range for a top-line winger.  That said, by the time DeBrincat reaches free agency (when the salary cap is much higher), he could still be in line for a raise if he stays in the 25-30-goal, 60-plus-point range.  Copp received this contract coming off a career year, one he hasn’t been able to repeat since then.  He’s more of a bottom-six pivot getting paid as a second-liner which isn’t great value but he is a valuable secondary piece nonetheless.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F J.T. Compher ($5.1MM through 2027-28)
F Dylan Larkin ($8.7MM through 2030-31)
F Michael Rasmussen ($3.2MM through 2027-28)
F Lucas Raymond ($8.075MM through 2031-32)
D Moritz Seider ($8.55MM through 2030-31)

Larkin has never reached the point-per-game mark in his career though he came quite close in 2022-23 which is when this deal was signed.  In the current cap landscape, it feels like this is a bit of an overpayment but with the big jump coming in the salary cap over the next few years, that shouldn’t be the case for too long.  Raymond skipped the bridge contract last summer though it took until right before training camp to get it done.  The early returns have been promising as he’s on pace for another career year while he’s still only 22.  If he keeps this up, this will become a team-friendly deal pretty quickly.

Compher was GM Steve Yzerman’s other big swing to add an impactful middleman in recent years.  He wasn’t too far off his career-bests in his first year with the Red Wings which was a decent first impression although things aren’t going as well this season.  If he can get back to his 2023-24 performance, this deal should hold up okay.  Rasmussen’s contract is almost like a longer second bridge deal.  It gives both sides a bit of security but is one that should be movable if things don’t go well.  The 2017 ninth-overall pick probably isn’t going to live up to his draft billing but all he needs to do to justify this contract is hold his own on the third line.  So far, so good on that front.  But he’ll need to show more offensively if he wants to beat this deal on the open market down the road.

Seider was an impactful player right from the get-go, taking home the Calder Trophy in his rookie season while recording 42 points in the next two.  On top of that, he was an all-situations piece from the beginning.  That made a bridge deal quite unlikely.  Like Raymond, it took a long time for it to get done but eventually, the two sides settled on this, a price tag very close to the one Brock Faber signed for his extension with Minnesota.  Generally speaking, when a player skips the bridge contract and goes to the long-term one, the first year or two of the new deal might be a bit of an overpayment with the hope he’ll outplay the price tag by the end.  Seider is already playing up to the price tag of this contract and with the cap jumping considerably soon, this could become a team-friendly pact fairly quickly.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

F Justin Abdelkader ($1.056MM through 2025-26)
F Kailer Yamamoto ($533.3K in 2024-25)

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Lyon
Worst Value: Husso

Looking Ahead

Detroit will hit the trade deadline with around $2MM in cap room (equivalent to over $9MM in room on deadline day), at least on paper.  Knowing that Kane has hit $1.5MM of his bonuses already with a shot at a bit more and Edvinsson being within striking distance of his $850K as well, that money is pretty much already accounted for unless they’re willing to take the overage penalty next season.  How these next few weeks go will ultimately determine whether it’s worth adding and taking what’s likely to be a $2MM-plus penalty or if they should sell and finish the year with enough room to absorb those bonuses.

The Red Wings should have some flexibility moving forward though.  They have around $25MM in room on next year’s cap with only seven or eight spots to fill and only one pricier player (Kane) to re-sign or replace.  The following year, several of their pricier mid-tier contracts come off the books.  Better days should be on the horizon from a cap perspective as a result.

Photos courtesy of Imagn Images.