PHR Mailbag: Devils, Restricted Free Agency, Jones, Tuch, Young Defensemen, Canadiens

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some thoughts on how an increased salary cap could affect restricted free agency, Seth Jones’ situation in Chicago, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag while we still have one more to come.

JF Devs Fan: Would Anaheim accept Kovacevic for Zegras and let Z be the 3C for the Devils? Who else is a 3C the Devils can target at the trade deadline? Hopefully someone with speed, some defensive acumen, and enough offense.

Unless the Ducks just want to open up cap space and get out of Trevor Zegras’ contract, there’s no reason for them to accept the trade.  Johnathan Kovacevic is a pending unrestricted free agent and would be far from a guarantee to re-sign so that would be a pretty low return for a player who they’ve had a high asking price on in the past.  New Jersey, meanwhile, can’t afford to take on the $5.75MM price tag on their books for this season and Anaheim would have no interest in paying down the money.  If the Ducks were to move Zegras, I suspect they’d want a similarly-established top-six piece.

New Jersey has been linked to Montreal’s Jake Evans for a while and the fit is logical.  He is the league leader in playing time shorthanded among forwards so the defensive acumen is there.  He’s not the fastest but he’s not a bad skater.  And offensively, he’s on pace for around 35 points which is reasonable for a third liner.  He also has a $1.7MM price tag this season which is something they should be able to fit in without too much issue.  If Boston sells, Trent Frederic could be of some interest.  He’s only a year removed from an 18-goal season and third-line minutes and would add some sandpaper.

It wouldn’t shock me if they were among the teams interested in Seattle’s Yanni Gourde.  A lower-body injury will probably keep him out until the deadline but he’s due back soon after and he would certainly give the third line a boost.  The Kraken would need to retain half of his $5.167MM to make a deal palatable, however.  I’m sure they’d kick the tires on Brock Nelson but it’d surprise me if he was moved inside the division.  Another cheaper option would be Chicago’s Ryan Donato who is having a career year offensively and has spent some time at center.  The defensive acumen isn’t necessarily there but he’d be an intriguing pickup as well.  GM Tom Fitzgerald should have some options if they try to make a move down the middle.

Emoney123: Is restricted free agency going to be more active/change since the cap is increasing and should Briere consider offer-sheeting someone like Wyatt Johnston?

I should start this by saying I think restricted free agency is already more active than we realize.  We only find out if a player signs an offer sheet but I think there are some that are discussed every year that just don’t put pen to paper.  In that sense, I don’t think it will be necessarily much more active although the success St. Louis had with their additions of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway might make players in that price range more palatable.  The Blues didn’t have to part with a first-round pick for either player which is notable.  I doubt we’ll see much more activity, however, or least activity that gets made public because of a signed offer sheet.

In theory, Philadelphia targeting a young center like Johnston makes perfect sense.  In practicality, however, it makes little sense.  In order to get him, they’d have to overpay to the point where it makes no sense for Dallas to match.  What’s that number going to be?

Let’s look at last year’s thresholds for an example.  (Keep in mind these numbers will go up this summer, too.)  Anything below $6.87MM is easily matched because they’re not going to give up Johnston without getting a first-round pick in return.  I think they match in the tier above that which caps at $9.16MM.  So now, to have a plausible shot at getting him, do the Flyers have to offer $10MM or more a season for Dallas to really have to think about it?  It’d probably have to be closer to the higher end of that tier, so now we might even be closer to $11MM.  And on top of that, the deal can’t be any longer than five years which is the maximum divisor.  They could offer seven years at that price point but with the divisor being five, the draft pick compensation would be pushed into the four first-round pick tier.  They’re not paying four first-round picks for Johnston.

So, to recap, the Flyers would have to offer a contract that would walk Johnston to UFA eligibility at 28, paying well above market value and coughing up two first-round picks, a second, and a third for the privilege to do so if Dallas didn’t match.  There’s a reason proven impactful players rarely sign offer sheets and this is it.  There just isn’t a price point that scares the receiving team away while still being affordable enough for the signing team.  I don’t know about you but a move like this doesn’t feel like a great move for a still-rebuilding team to make.

Unclemike1526: I’ve been watching the Seth Jones trade speculation with some interest. There is absolutely no doubt that Jones is overpaid. However, if the Hawks have to pay half his salary to move him that makes no sense to me either. Look he’s not horrible, a team cancer or negative value. IMO there is absolutely nothing to be gained by paying him to play somewhere else.

So, I guess my question is, what would be the minimum in your opinion that the Hawks could get away with to move him and make it worth their while? I’m thinking if they only had to pay $2 million a year to see him off and save $7 million a year would be worth it. Any more than that and with the Cap going up I’d keep him until they can get the years down enough to make that work would be the way I would go. What’s your opinion? Thanks.

You make an important point that I think sometimes gets lost in the speculation about trading Jones, especially now with the news that he is welcome to being moved (but hasn’t asked for a trade).  It is still pretty rare for teams to retain money for more than a couple of years and he has five years left after this one.  That’s a lot of money to pay a player not to play for you.  On the other hand, it’s a necessary decision to make if they’re going to move him as there isn’t going to be much of a market for him at $9.5MM, especially from the standpoint of trading him for value.

The first question I asked myself when I saw this question is what is today’s market value for Jones if he was a free agent?  With the cap set to rise (which partially offsets the age concern), he’s probably still in the $8.5MM range.  If that’s a rough estimate of what a team would sign him for, getting it down to that price tag is necessary to deal him basically for free or for a nominal return.

With that in mind, is paying the deal down to $7.5MM that much of a needle-mover?  I suppose it depends on what the end goal is here, simply clearing money or trying to get something resembling acceptable value for a pretty good player who Chicago paid a lot for not long ago.  (Or, with it being a different GM in charge and not Stan Bowman, will the sunk cost fallacy not come into play?)

If the end goal is simply clearing the contract, retaining $2MM should get it done.  But if they want to get any sort of impactful asset in return, that might have to go to $3MM per season.  That said, spending $15+ million on a player not to play for you to get a good asset in return isn’t a great idea either.  I think the better play is that they hold him for now but if it’s a case where he really wants out, then they might have to bite the bullet.

FeelTheThunder: There seems to be a lot of rumblings about Buffalo Sabres’ Alex Tuch and the Tampa Bay Lightning being linked. Granted, you always have to take things with a grain of salt per se but if there is smoke, there is fire. It’s widely reported that GM BriseBois is quite active searching for a middle six forward so the question becomes what does this potential deal look like?

Obviously, Tampa’s 2026 1st round pick would be a part of it. I assume a middle-round pick (3rd or 4th) would be added in the mix and maybe a player like Darren Raddysh as Buffalo is going to need depth on the defensive right side next season.

Now, if they ask for someone like Ethan Gauthier then we’ll be talking about a bigger trade here if Tampa is even open to moving him (I’m 50/50 on that possibility). I won’t bring up the potential Hobey Baker nominee Isaac Howard nor Conor Geekie as I feel both are off-limits. But in terms of other NHL-ready prospects Gage Goncalves could be someone to watch in the matter.

I wouldn’t necessarily say where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  There’s a lot of smoke at this time of year and most of it usually doesn’t amount to anything.  Most of the players a buying team will be connected to ultimately won’t be acquired.

If the goal is a middle-six forward (as I think it is) for Tampa Bay, that’s not Tuch.  He’s a first-liner and almost more importantly, he’s on a team-friendly contract at $4.75MM through next season.  Accordingly, there’s going to be some sticker shock on the price that’s going to be paid to get him if Buffalo actually moves him.  I agree that a first-round pick is a starting point but I don’t think the other two pieces are going to move the needle much.  I think they’d have a use for Raddysh but he’d be viewed as a secondary addition and those usually don’t go for top-liners.

You mentioned how Gauthier’s inclusion would make it a bigger deal.  I’m not so sure.  Frankly, I don’t know if the Sabres would jump at him plus the first-round pick; I think someone would beat that because if Tuch was actually made available, about half the league would make a serious offer.  Honestly, I doubt the Lightning have the trade chips to beat that many teams out so it’s hard to come up with a specific package.  I agree that Howard is someone they probably don’t intend to move but never say never.  If there’s a player with team control available that they think is a difference-maker, I don’t think any of their youngsters are truly off the table.  As for Goncalves, he cleared waivers barely a month ago so that should tell you that his trade value is minimal at best.

I know there’s a lot of speculation out there about Tuch but the bulk of the reporting all says the same thing – teams are calling about him but the Sabres are giving no indication that they have any interest in moving him.  Knowing that, if a team wants him, the price is going to be extremely high.  And in Tampa Bay’s case, adding a top-line scorer isn’t necessarily the most realistic priority for them.

letsgonats: Is there a playoff team that would NOT want Alex Tuch?

I kind of touched on this above but I’d imagine all 16 playoff teams would at least try to make a compelling offer with some knowing their chances of landing him would be quite slim.  I also think several non-playoff teams would at least kick the tires on his services in the hopes that they might be able to convince him to sign a contract extension, something that can be done as early as July 1st.  With Tuch growing up relatively close to Buffalo, I think the Sabres will also be planning on taking a run at signing him to a long-term extension as well.  If he was actually made available, he might be the most sought-after player in these next couple of weeks.

Schwa: I’ve seen both K’Andre Miller’s and Bowen Byram’s names listed, could we see a move between NYR and BUF centered around these two? With Buffalo potentially having other pieces that the Rangers would want at the deadline? Tuch (if he’s actually available), or Greenway maybe.

I don’t think those two are close enough in value to the core components of a trade.  Byram was once viewed as a top-pairing blueliner, if not a true number one.  He hasn’t gotten to that level yet but this season has arguably been his best even without a ton of power play time.  Beyond that, he’s playing top-pairing minutes and playing well.

Miller, on the other hand, doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, aside from a breakout year in 2022-23 that he hasn’t come close to duplicating since then.  It also doesn’t help that his performance this season has taken a step back.  He’s two years away from UFA eligibility like Byram but unlike Byram, he hasn’t shown enough to land a long-term contract yet.  Instead, he’s owed a pricey $4.646MM qualifying offer and is a near-lock for another short-term agreement.  It wouldn’t make sense for Buffalo to swap a core piece for someone with some question marks; that’s not a good foundation for a trade.

I’ve touched on Tuch plenty already so let’s talk about Jordan Greenway.  He’s the type of player I could see the Rangers wanting, giving them some playable size and grit in the bottom six but are they in a spot to be giving up assets for a rental piece?  Unless they think they can get an extension done, I don’t think going for a short-term add is the right play.  I could see them showing some interest in rugged winger Beck Malenstyn but I’m not sure Buffalo wants to move him just yet.

Jaysen: I am not quite ready to give up on Kirby Dach quite yet, but I am dangling Alex Newhook.

Who calls me, what are they offering?

It also looks more and more likely that Jake Evans will be traded. Sad to see him go but I do think that Owen Beck is ready to replace him starting next year. So, over/under on which team will end up trading for Evans, and what the actual return might be?

I don’t think there’s a great market for Newhook, to be honest.  With the way he has underachieved this season, is there a playoff-bound team that would have interest in him?  Meanwhile, if you’re a rebuilding team, you’re probably selling at this point, not buying.  Teams like Calgary and Columbus have the potential to be soft buyers who would view Newhook have three more years of team control left as an asset.  You could sell me on Nashville as well being in that territory and maybe Pittsburgh.  That’s not a big market as there’s no guarantee any of those teams would have interest in Newhook’s services.  With a limited market, I’m not sure they could land a first-round pick for him let alone the late-first and early-second they gave up to get him.  If the Canadiens want to move him, the offseason might make more sense when some of the sellers now might be more interested in buying.

As for Evans, whichever teams are looking for extra center depth will have interest.  It’s hard to pick a contender as six or eight clubs could realistically be in touch with GM Kent Hughes about his services.  I expect that a straight return for him would be a two-part package, a second-round pick along with another asset and it will be whatever team parts with the best second asset (another pick or prospect) that will get him.  New Jersey’s interest is well-known so I could see them making a serious run but handicapping the field in terms of odds would basically be me just widely guessing.

Photo courtesy of Imagn Images.