PHR Mailbag: Lightning, Panthers, Chychrun, Hughes, Kings, Jets, Spengler Cup

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the cap crunch the Panthers will be facing as they look to re-sign two key unrestricted free agents this summer, options for the Jets to solve their roster needs, and much more.  With so many questions this time around, we’ll break them into three separate pieces instead of the usual two.

FeeltheThunder: As a Tampa fan, I’m wondering the type of combo Tampa will go for in the trade deadline. Tampa is a much-improved team from last year (night and day, really). I feel Tampa may go for one or two forwards to add more additional depth to their middle/bottom six group like they did a few years ago with Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul (that’s worked out quite well). They have a pretty good defensive group overall and have some depth so I don’t know if adding a defensive piece is necessary. What do you think of the combo they’ll go with and who may the targets be?

I feel one name for starters (if available) Jake Evans from Montreal has a number of qualities Tampa tends to aim for in a player and Tampa/Montreal have traded in the past.

In follow-up comments, you also mentioned Luke Kunin (who I’ve tossed out before as a possible fit for them) and Will Cuylle (who might be one of the more untouchable Rangers at the moment).  I still like Kunin as a fit for them.  If memory serves, I had Mikael Granlund on that list previously, assuming they can make the money work with the Sharks out of retention slots.  I think he’s still a good fit for them too.

Evans is a good one as well although the asking price on him is going to be fairly high with the start he’s off to this season.  At a $1.7MM cap charge, he’ll be affordable for a lot of contenders which will drive up the acquisition cost.  If Buffalo sells, Jordan Greenway could be viewed as trying to refill the Tanner Jeannot slot, probably at a much lesser price point than what was paid to Nashville to get Jeannot.  Another center that could interest them is Sean Kuraly, someone who can kill penalties and play with an edge.  If Utah sells, Nick Bjugstad could also fit the bill.

If they go for two forwards, it’ll be a center/winger combo (and if they wound up with someone like Kunin who plays all three positions), even better for them.  Aside from Granlund, all are cheap enough that Tampa Bay could afford them outright without necessarily needing retention at the trade deadline if they’re able to stay healthy between now and then.

Having said that, it wouldn’t shock me if one of their additions is on the back end, looking for a third-pairing upgrade.  Someone who can kill penalties, play with an edge, and give them a bit more depth in case injuries arise.  In essence, something like the David Savard move a few years ago (just not at the cost of a first-round pick).  Depending on what happens with Savard in Montreal and what they look to do up front, he could be a potentially plausible fit again.

Sunshine swede: Do you think Panthers can extend both Ekblad and Bennett? Guess Bennett will earn a raise, while Ekblad might have a cut. What do you think about their next deals?

Keeping one is definitely doable but both could be a challenge.  Per PuckPedia, they have $72.5MM in commitments on the books for next season already to 15 players.  If the salary cap lands around the $92MM range (some could see it going higher but for now, that’s the 5% allowable increase), that gives them a little less than $20MM to work with, a bit less than that if they want to leave themselves some in-season wiggle room.

Coming into the season, Sam Bennett was probably looking at a long-term deal in the $6.5MM range.  Given the dearth of impact centers set to become an unrestricted free agent and the fact he’s on pace for career highs offensively across the board, it stands to reason that he could push past $7MM on his next deal.  Frankly, something along the lines of Aaron Ekblad’s current price tag ($7.5MM) wouldn’t shock me given his playoff success.

As for Ekblad, he’s also set to benefit from a fairly weak UFA market; it’s basically between him and Neal Pionk for the top veteran right-shot option available.  While he’s not the big point producer he was earlier in his career, he still plays a big defensive role, logs heavy minutes, and is on pace for around 40 points again.  I could see a small cut in his pay but I could also see a long-term deal at that price tag again depending on how many teams are serious about bidding for him.

If the two of them cost, say, $14MM combined, now you’re down to only around $5MM to re-sign Mackie Samoskevich and sign a couple of depth forwards and depth defenders.  That’d make it tough to do anything to materially improve the roster.  Of course, losing one of those two would certainly hurt things as well.  I think the likeliest outcome is that they only keep one but if they really want to make their roster more top-heavy, there’s a way to keep both of them around and then restructure a bit once their $14.5MM goalie tandem sees their contract expire in 2026.

2012orioles: Is a Jakob Chychrun extension with the Capitals going to happen?

Last month, Chychrun indicated to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox that he could see himself re-signing with Washington.  And frankly, it’s easy to see why.  The Caps have been one of the biggest pleasant surprises of the season with their roster makeover during the summer paying dividends with Chychrun playing a big role in that.  He’s on pace for a career year offensively with 11 goals and 14 assists in just 33 games.  His shooting percentage (15.1%) is a lot higher than his career average so there might be a bit of regression coming on the goal front but even so, he should blow past his personal benchmark of 41 points as long as he stays healthy.  In a contract year, that’s great news for him.

That next contract is going to be quite pricey, however.  He was probably in the $7MM range heading into the season and with the year he’s having offensively and the talk of a salary cap increase of more than 5%, it wouldn’t be shocking to see his next AAV start with an eight.  That might seem high but he’ll be 27 when he hits the open market; whoever signs him will be getting several of his prime years.

Can the Capitals be the team that gives him that contract?  I think they can be.  Per PuckPedia, they have $63.7MM on the books for 2025-26 with 14 players signed.  Granted, they need to sign a goalie tandem that will cost a lot more than the sub-$2MM they’re paying this year but there’s room for another big-ticket deal on the books.  Having said that, a Chychrun extension would push them past $30MM (probably closer to $32MM) on their back end so they may want to trim a bit.  But they can afford it and he’s a very good fit.  I think they can get it done.

DevilShark: What do you see as Hughes III ceiling in Norris voting this year? Could he crack the top 10?

Let’s recap his first half of the season.  Luke Hughes has three goals and 15 assists in 33 games so far.  Decent offensive numbers, sure, but hardly worthy of award consideration.  It’s even a step back from his per-game production from last season.  On top of that, his playing time is down by nearly two minutes a night from last year.  He sits fifth among New Jersey defenders in ATOI as a result.

Is this realistically the profile of a player who should be in consideration for the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman?  Logically, doesn’t Hughes need to be New Jersey’s top blueliner to be even considered for the award?  While it’s worth noting that the Devils run three very balanced pairings, I don’t see a case to be made for him to land on a ballot let alone finish in the top ten in voting.

It wouldn’t shock me for Hughes to one day land in there.  Once he takes on a bigger role and if he can become the type of highly productive blueliner many project him to be, he’ll get into that range.  But that’s not going to happen this season.

rpoabr: What’s the trade that puts the LA Kings into true Cup contention? Doughty coming back soon (hopefully) should already be a boost.

Drew Doughty’s eventual return will be the biggest boost they get.  Adding a legitimate number one blueliner to the roster puts the rest of the back end in a more optimal spot on the depth chart and gives them a bit more depth in general.  If they stay healthy the rest of the way, they probably don’t need to make a move to add defensive depth so we can scratch that off the list of trade options.

But here’s the problem.  When Doughty returns (probably later this month), that’s the end of their cap space.  The Kings are operating in LTIR which means they haven’t been banking cap space.  Right now, they have lots to spend with an LTIR pool of more than $10MM.  When he comes back, they have to start trimming players to get back into cap compliance.  That puts them in a spot where they’re going to have to match money or get double retention on a player.  That means there isn’t a trade available to them this season that’s going to vault them into true Cup contention.

What could help put them into at least semi-contender status would be adding a top-six winger to help get them out of the middle of the pack offensively.  Making the money work would require double retention but players like Jason Zucker and Kyle Palmieri come to mind, players that will boost their middle six and should be acquirable for a package starting with a second-round pick.  But even with that, when you’re in a division with Vegas and Edmonton, they’re going to be hard-pressed to get to true Stanley Cup contention no matter what move(s) they make.

Cla23: What realistic trade can the Winnipeg Jets make to acquire a top-four defenseman or second-line center? I mean players with NMC, NTC, will probably not waive to come to the first-place overall Jets.

Winnipeg not being a ‘destination’ team certainly complicates things a bit for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff who will have to get creative to try to fill those holes.  At first glance, the easiest short-term solution for a second center is to flip a draft pick or two to San Jose for Mikael Granlund.  Granlund is producing well but with the Sharks unable to retain, I wonder if a 2026 second-round pick and a 2025 third-rounder is enough.  He doesn’t have any trade protection either and if there’s a good fit, I could see him being amenable to a deal to stick around.

On a longer-term basis, I wonder if they might be a team that could pry Dylan Cozens out of Buffalo.  The Sabres would want a similar young talent in return so the offer would need Cole Perfetti as one of the pieces.  I also think they’d need to add their first-round pick this year.  There might be another third element but more of the inconsequential variety.  That’s a high price but Cozens has five more years of team control at a price tag ($7.1MM) that Winnipeg can afford and would give them a capable second option behind Mark Scheifele.  If they want a young option to grow with their core (and doesn’t have trade protection), it’s going to be expensive.  And Buffalo gets someone who fits their core group age-wise, some cap relief if they intend to make a big splash in free agency, and another quality draft pick to use or trade for more of a win-now option.

Adding defensive help is going to be tough, especially a longer-term upgrade.  Teams moving a more cost-controlled option would want a younger piece with some upside in return and I don’t think players like Ville Heinola and Dylan Samberg (who was off to a nice start before getting injured) are the caliber of young blueliners they’d be seeking.  So, the rental market it is then.  I’d put Marcus Pettersson as a viable target for them with the return I suggested for Granlund potentially being enough (though I see Pittsburgh trying to hold out for a first-rounder).  And again, if the fit is good, maybe he stays and fills that need longer term.

Gmm8811: Need MORE Spengler Cup coverage!!! What have been the most significant signings of Spengler participants that weren’t on anyone’s radar? Who has benefitted the most from a good tournament showing?

Truthfully, I can’t think of any off the top of my head that would be considered significant signings from Spengler Cup participants over the years.  Anaheim gave Kodie Curran a two-year, $2MM one-way contract in 2020 a year after he played in the tournament.  A seven-figure salary for someone from there with minimal pro experience in North America would qualify as significant in comparison to some of the two-way deals given out.   Looking through the top scorers in recent years, none of them landed an NHL deal.

The who has benefitted question is a tough one to answer since I’m not sure what the perspective is.  If it’s benefitting from the tournament in the hopes of landing an NHL deal, there probably aren’t any.  Jonathan Hazen stood out to me in a positive way for the second straight year but he has another season and an option on his contract in Switzerland and is already 34 so he’s not landing an NHL chance.  If you’re asking from the standpoint of a good showing helping secure a contract overseas for next season, several I’m sure helped their chances but when you’re looking in the grand scheme of things, it’s a three-game or four-game event.  That’s probably too small a sample size to make any sort of conclusions from.

Photo courtesy of Imagn Images.