To say the start of the 2024-25 campaign has been disappointing for the Nashville Predators is somewhat of an understatement. Nashville finished last year as the top wild-card team in the Western Conference with 99 points and handed out nearly $140MM in contracts this past offseason keeping around some old faces and bringing in some new ones.
The aggressive offseason led to skyrocketing expectations for the Predators organization, which have gone unrealized through the first month of the regular season. The team has a 5-9-2 record through 16 games, putting them dead last in the league.
This leads to the question, why exactly are the Predators not only underperforming but wholly noncompetitive?
Nashville’s special teams have been quite good to start the regular season. The team sits 11th in powerplay percentage thanks to a 22.22% conversion rate and has the league’s second-ranked penalty kill with a 90.91% success rate. Both percentages are better than Nashville’s playoff-clinching roster from a year ago with a 20-team jump in the latter category.
If the special teams are not the issue and have even improved year-on-year, reductive reasoning would indicate that the Predators’ 5-on-5 play is the culprit for the poor start. Unfortunately, although Nashville’s 5-on-5 play from last year has depressed, it doesn’t explain the discrepancy in success.
According to Hockey Reference, the Predators have managed a 51.3% CorsiFor% to start the year, which puts them around the league average. It’s a slight downturn from the team’s 51.8% output from last season, but it’s still better than six playoff-bound teams from a year ago. Outside of controlling the puck and looking primarily at offensive generation, Nashville is 15th in the league with a 31.2 xGF which is two expected goals better than the 10-2-3 Minnesota Wild.
Still, after looking further under the hood, two major areas of Nashville’s game need some work. There have been 222 high-danger chances (shots from approximately in the slot, or rebounds) generated in the Predators’ 16 matchups this year with the team earning 116 of those chances. However, they are only converting on those chances at a 7.2% rate putting them 29th in the league. On the flip side, Nashville’s opponents are converting 11.9% of the time, also 29th in the league.
The other discrepancy is the Predators’ -20 axDiff (actual goal differential minus expected goal differential) which is the worst in the league. This indicates that Nashville is generating an adequate number of good scoring chances but isn’t converting at the expected rate.
A diagnosis of the issue isn’t good enough for a team still looking to make the playoffs this season. The Predators will want a prescription to resolve the problems on the ice and there are a few different pathways they can go.
First, to put it bluntly, a playoff-caliber team can’t compete with a combination of Colton Sissons and Juuso Parssinen centering the team’s second line. The two have combined for seven points this season with a -13 rating and an E +/- of -4.6. When taking a look at high-danger conversion or prevention, there are a couple of names that could help out Nashville.
Kyle Palmieri, a veteran forward for the New York Islanders, immediately jumps off the page as an offense-generating candidate. Palmieri has accrued a 14.0 xGF this season which would be good for second on the Predators behind Roman Josi. According to Natural Stat Trick, Palmieri sits 20th in the league in high-danger scoring conversions. This would allow Nashville to move Stamkos to center the team’s second-line opening a spot on the right wing for Palmieri.
Given that Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair are currently on the injured reserve it’s unlikely the Islanders would agree to this trade now. Still, with a desperate need for cap space New York may be willing to entertain offers on any expiring contract. Unfortunately, Palmieri doesn’t project as a long-term answer for Nashville given that he’s 33 years old, but he would at least allow them to kick the can down the road for now.
If the Predators seek out a player who limits opposing teams from converting on high-danger chances look no further than the Detroit Red Wings. Andrew Copp has averaged an ’on-ice high danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes’ of 1.34 during 5-on-5 play which would put him second on Nashville just above Ryan O’Reilly. He’s also formidable enough in the faceoff dot to give the Predators the confidence to leave Stamkos on the right wing.
The downside of acquiring Copp is the contractual complications. Copp is earning $5.625MM for the next three years and has a 10-team no-trade list in his contract. This isn’t to say that Nashville is one of the 10 teams on Copp’s no-trade last but it’s still a hurdle to clear. The Predators could gauge Detroit’s interest in retaining some of the remaining salary of Copp’s deal and even include Sissons in the return package who’s making $2.86MM this year and next.
The hypothetical trade wouldn’t project as a ’season-punting’ move by the Red Wings either. They’ve already shown a willingness to trade legitimate NHL talent (i.e. Olli Maatta) to create room for some of their up-and-coming players. Detroit, a team that has struggled to produce offense this season, could strike two birds with one stone in this move by clearing a spot for Vladimir Tarasenko or Marco Kasper on the team’s second line while opening up additional cap space.
One defensive pairing sticking out like a sore thumb in Nashville is the combination of Jeremy Lauzon and Alexandre Carrier. The two have played the most minutes together compared to any other combination on Nashville’s blue line (188.2) and have combined for a team-worst 40.2% xGoals % according to MoneyPuck.
Marcus Pettersson of the Pittsburgh Penguins immediately comes to mind as a viable trade candidate to replace one of Lauzon or Carrier on the team’s second defensive pairing. Petterson currently leads the Penguins in blocked shots (27) and carries a contextually impressive E +/- of -0.8 while playing next to one of the league’s worst blue-liners on the defensive side of the puck. He’s in the last year of his contract and should find himself on the trade block further down the season if Pittsburgh continues at their current pace.
This list of solutions for Nashville isn’t exhaustive as there are plenty of directions they could ultimately take. The organization could wait things out and hope the gap between expected and actual goals narrows over the next few weeks. Still, given the nature of their aggressive approach to this past offseason, the Predators may want to make a move sooner rather than later before the bottom completely falls out on their 2024-25 aspirations.
pawtucket
Hot take
Besides Trotz signing old guys to long deals
Brunette isn’t a good coach. His Florida stats are inflated from a good team.
Why not try Forsberg and O Reilly on different lines to see if they can carry one?
Stammer can play center. He can be #2
Why does Evangelista get 11:00min a night but hits the scoresheet almost each time?
PyramidHeadcrab
It’s entirely possible that Brunette is a perfectly good coach, but just isn’t clicking with this particular group. Leadership dynamics are weird, you can’t always take someone who’s successful in one place and have the same success with a new team of people.
JTD
After hearing what Trotz referred to as a “rebuild plan” if results don’t improve, I don’t think this team will be looking for solutions via trade. He said young players could be given bigger roles. Trotz is already seeing the moves he made not pay off. I don’t think he wants to take any more risks bringing in veterans this year unless the team becomes successful.
usaKesler
Andrew Brunette is NOT a NHL coach! Get Quenneville in there and see what happens.
sweetg
They have same issues they always have . they keep trading or signing second line centers at best to be a number one.. Duchene ,Johansen now Stamkos
Gbear
Funny thing is, they hardly played Duchene at center and now aren’t playing Stamkos there either.
FeeltheThunder
Barry Trotz went after star power this offseason particularly with Steven Stamkos (34) & Jonathan Marchessault (33). The problem for Trotz is he got star struck on aging players & didn’t look at the microstats of these players & their production.
For example, Stamkos has been declining since 2022 based on his microstats & was in the negative in 5-on-5 last year for the first time in his career. There is numerous reasons why Tampa only reportedly offered Stamkos $3m AAV while Nashville jump the gun & greatly overpaid at $8m AAV.
My point is when you look at Nashville’s roster & their top talents, it primarily consists of talents in their mid-30s. They’re an old team with several players on the decline (some more than others). Honestly, Trotz doesn’t need any more players in their 30s like Kyle Palmieri as this team is closer to a rebuild now than it was last year. If they don’t make the playoffs (which seems likely they won’t) Trotz is going to have to disband & start over after spending big only to have one of the biggest busts in the league.
Gbear
The Preds got off to a lousy start last season with a different roster than the one that got off to a lousy start this year. What is the one constant? Andrew Brunette.
If it takes a coach the pre-season and 15 games into the regular season to figure out how to utilize his roster, he’s not doing his job. Bruno has an all-star goaltender, a Norris trophy caliber Dman and three 40 goal scorers to go along with O’Reilly and Nyquist.
Yes, they need a top 6 center in lieu of not playing Stamkos at C, but a good coach should be able to be above .500 with that roster.