Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Islanders.
New York Islanders
Current Cap Hit: $88,000,000 (at the $88MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Maxim Tsyplakov (one year, $950K)
Potential Bonuses:
Tsyplakov: $1MM
The Isles beat out a long list of suitors to secure Tsyplakov’s services after a breakout year in the KHL that saw him score 31 goals. He projects to play in the bottom six, however, meaning he shouldn’t have a goal total anywhere near there. If Tsyplakov stays in that role, he likely won’t reach any of his ‘A’ bonuses either. Worth noting is that he will be arbitration-eligible next summer even though he’s exiting his entry-level deal.
Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level
D Samuel Bolduc ($800K, RFA)
D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Hudson Fasching ($775K, UFA)
F Simon Holmstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Oliver Wahlstrom ($1MM, RFA)
Nelson has been somewhat of a late bloomer. His last three seasons have been the best of his career, reaching at least 34 goals and 59 points in each of them. If he can extend that streak to four, he could land a small increase, an outcome that didn’t seem likely early on in this deal. Palmieri didn’t fare well over his first two seasons in New York but did return to form last season, matching his career-high in goals with 30. He’ll need to stay around that level to have a chance to stay around this price tag as three seasons between 21 and 33 points before 2023-24 will hurt him in negotiations.
Wahlstrom struggled considerably last season, leading to speculation about his future with the team (which hasn’t really changed heading into this year). Assuming he doesn’t take a big leap forward this season, he’s likely to stay around this price point and could be a non-tender candidate given his arbitration rights. Holmstrom’s first full NHL season was a good one with 15 goals, including five on the penalty kill but took a bit less than his qualifying offer to secure a one-way salary. A similar showing could get him closer to double that next summer. Fasching has had a limited role over the past couple of seasons and is likely to stay in that spot in 2024-25 which means he should stay around the league minimum mark next summer.
When Dobson signed his current deal, it was a situation where the Islanders had more of the leverage. That’s not the case anymore. He showed that his breakout 2021-22 performance wasn’t a fluke and built on it last season, recording 70 points and logging more than 24 minutes a night. Essentially, he performed like a true number one defender. With arbitration rights this time around, Dobson gets the leverage in that if early talks don’t go well, he could file for arbitration where he’d make a very strong case for a substantial raise. Assuming neither side wants it to get to that point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dobson’s camp pushing for $10MM or more on a long-term deal at this stage.
Romanov has emerged as a legitimate second-pairing option in his first two seasons with the Isles while producing a bit more offensively than he did with Montreal. Like Dobson, he’s also now arbitration-eligible and if he puts up a similar performance this season, Romanov could land closer to $4.5MM on his next contract.
Reilly re-signed after playing a regular role following his early-season waiver claim. What will hurt him in future talks is how much he has bounced around which will give some teams pause in free agency when it comes to offering him a contract. Accordingly, there’s a good chance he sticks around this price tag on more short-term deals over the next little while. Bolduc has been in the seventh defender role over the past two seasons and is likely to stay in that spot this season. Arbitration rights could give him a small raise but with the raises coming to Dobson and Romanov, they might need to keep this salary slot at the minimum.
Signed Through 2025-26
F Anders Lee ($7MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM, UFA)
Lee managed to reach the 20-goal mark for the seventh time in the last eight years last season but with just 37 points, that was his lowest full-season total since 2015-16. Now 34, the captain is showing signs of slowing down which means the last couple of years of this deal could be an issue from a value perspective. If that happens, his next deal will be closer to half of this amount. The same can be said for Pageau who is a luxury they can no longer afford on the third line which is where he’s best utilized. But with that type of playing time, he won’t put up the production to justify the price tag. It wouldn’t be surprising to see New York try to move him at some point but that won’t be easy.
Signed Through 2026-27
F Casey Cizikas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Kyle MacLean ($775K, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($2.75MM, UFA)
Cizikas is halfway through a six-year deal, a term rarely given to a player his age who plays exclusively in the bottom six. With an uptick in production the last two seasons, they’ve done alright with it so far but he’ll be 36 when this contract ends so things could change quickly. His next contract, if there is one, should come in below that. MacLean was a career minor leaguer until partway through last season. This deal was a nice one for both sides in that it gives him some financial stability while New York gets a player at the minimum for a few seasons which they’ll need given the pricey contracts they have (and will soon be adding to).
Varlamov is still an above-average second goaltender and getting that at this price point is good. What could be problematic down the road is that he’s already 36 with three years left on his contract. But goalies can still be serviceable into their late 30s so there’s a chance that this deal will work out well for New York.
Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer
F Mathew Barzal ($9.15MM through 2030-31)
F Anthony Duclair ($3.5MM through 2027-28)
F Pierre Engvall ($3MM through 2029-30)
F Bo Horvat ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
D Scott Mayfield ($3.5MM through 2029-30)
D Adam Pelech ($5.75MM through 2028-29)
D Ryan Pulock ($6.15MM through 2029-30)
G Ilya Sorokin ($8.25MM through 2031-32)
Barzal got back to the point-per-game mark last season for the first time since his rookie year while also setting a new career best in goals. This is more the minimum level of production that will be needed to justify the contract but at 27, that is still doable. GM Lou Lamoriello’s comment when Horvat’s deal (“It’s too long, and it’s too much money”) is memorable but by no means is it a steep overpayment either. He’s not a true top center but has been deployed as one and has three straight 30-plus-goal seasons. If he was hitting the open market last summer, he likely would have come in pretty close to this amount and term.
Duclair was New York’s biggest splash in free agency this summer. He’s coming off a mixed year that saw him struggle in San Jose but thrive down the stretch with Tampa Bay. He has reached at least 20 goals in three of the last five seasons, however, and if he can stay at that level, the Islanders should get a good return on this agreement. Engvall’s contract was an eye-popper last summer, not so much for the $3MM price tag but for the fact he received a seven-year deal, a term few players in his role typically get. He’s someone who can be moved around the lineup and play in a few different roles while chipping in with some depth scoring. This isn’t necessarily the best usage of a long-term deal but it’s not a big overpayment either.
Until recently, Pulock had been New York’s top defender in what was more of a by-committee approach at the top but with Dobson’s emergence last season, that should change moving forward. This price tag is certainly reasonable for someone who should fill the number two role although he won’t produce as much offensively as a lot of players in this range do.
Pelech has logged more than 20 minutes a night in five straight years, playing a big role in New York’s defensive committee as well although his offensive production is even more limited than Pulock’s. That makes the price tag a little harder to justify, especially for a second-pairing player but his strong defensive game eases that concern a bit. It’s an above-market deal but a manageable one. Mayfield also received a surprisingly long-term agreement for the role he plays, one that’s more of a fifth option when everyone is healthy. But injuries often moved him into the top four and that price for someone in that role is manageable. It could be an issue towards the end of the agreement but they’re not going to be at that point for a while.
Sorokin enters the season with a bit of a question mark which is something few expected this time a year ago. After three strong years to start his NHL career, he battled inconsistency last season, even losing the starting job to Varlamov late in the year and in the playoffs. That’s not ideal for someone who is now the fifth highest-paid goalie in the league (fourth if you don’t count Carey Price who will be on LTIR again this season). That said, his track record is good enough that they can realistically count on Sorokin at least returning to close to his previous form which he will need to do to live up to this contract.
Buyouts
None
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Still To Sign
None
Best Value: (non-entry-level) Dobson
Worst Value: Lee
Looking Ahead
While the Islanders project to be right at the Upper Limit to start the season, there is some work to do. They’ll need to create space to get Tsyplakov onto the roster and they will want to leave some wiggle room for injuries and any in-season movement. With that in mind, Lamoriello is going to need to find a way to trim a couple million off the books and even with that, they’ll be close to being a cap-in, cap-out team in 2024-25.
They have nearly $66MM in commitments on the books for 2025-26 already with Dobson and Romanov in line for pricey new deals that will probably cut half of their remaining cap space right there without even approaching new agreements for Nelson or Palmieri (or their replacements). At this point, it’s hard to see the Islanders being able to keep their current core group around much longer let alone add to it for a couple more years at least.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I have to laugh at Grandpa Lou’s comments about Horvats’ contract being too long and too much money. Hey Lou take a look in the mirror and that will tell you who’s responsible. I understand that player salaries have gone up, and that’s fine. But why does he feel he has to consistently overpay for mediocre talent. Bill Torrey would have never given out contracts the way Grandpa Lou does. Why do we have so many players being paid into the next decade. Trade Lee. Trade Pageau. Trade Pulock. Eat some salary just to move them out. You’re not winning a Stanley Cup with them. And let me be the first one to tell you you’re not winning anything with Barzal and Horvat either. There’s an old saying that “Nothing changes if nothing changes “. The New York Islanders aren’t winning anything the longer Grandpa Lou stays in charge, because he doesn’t believe in change. He even keeps that stupid rule that doesn’t allow facial hair. Hey Lou it’s 2024 in case you don’t know what year it is. Lou Must Go!!
Can someone please explain to me how the New York Islanders are a better team now than when Grandpa Lou took over? Is there something that I’m missing? Grandpa Lou needs to be sent to the rocking chair hospital. In other words FIRE HIM!!!!