Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Nashville.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $84,904,199 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Evangelista (one year, $797.5K)

Evangelista’s first full NHL campaign was a good one as he notched 39 points after putting up 15 points in 24 games in 2022-23.  That isn’t a statistical profile that suggests a long-term agreement will be forthcoming but if he can have a similar offensive showing this season, Evangelista could approach the $3MM mark on a bridge agreement.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Dante Fabbro ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.15MM, UFA)

Nyquist came to Nashville in the middle of a down season which hurt his market last summer.  However, his first full season with the Preds was his best as he set new career bests in assists (52) and points (75).  A repeat showing could give him a shot at a fair-sized raise, albeit on a short-term deal as he’ll be 36 when the 2025-26 season kicks off.

Fabbro has shown flashes of being a key secondary piece on Nashville’s back end in the past but has settled into more of a depth role in recent years.  That said, he’s still just 26 and as a right-shot player, he should still command a fair bit of interest next summer in free agency.  Even if he stays in the role he’s had lately, he should push past the $3MM mark on his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Mark Jankowski ($800K, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($900K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM, UFA)
D Spencer Stastney ($825K, RFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($1.5MM, UFA)

Sissons’ seven-year contract drew some ire at the time for someone whose role was somewhat limited at the time but it has held up relatively well in most of those seasons.  He has provided enough secondary scoring to give them some value on that front while being a key defensive player.  He should land another multi-year deal above $3MM if that holds up the next two years.  Smith has emerged as a viable fourth-line physical winger over the last two seasons.  Those players tend to do well on the open market still so if he can push past the double-digit goal mark, he could double his price tag in 2026.  McCarron and Jankowski have been depth players throughout their careers and are likely to see their future contracts check in relatively close to the league minimum.

Schenn had a resurgent season in 2022-23, moving him from someone making around the minimum salary to someone making nearly four times that much.  He had a limited role with the Preds last season; it’s fair to suggest they were expecting him to cover more than 15 minutes a night.  Continuing with that level of ice time could land him back near the minimum in 2026.

Lauzon was counted on to play a bigger role last season, ranking fourth among Nashville blueliners in ATOI while leading the NHL in hits by 60 over the next closest player.  Two more years like that would give him a strong market heading to free agency where doubling his current price tag could be doable.  Stastney split last season between Nashville and AHL Milwaukee and might be in a similar role this season.  He’ll need to crack the lineup full-time before having a shot at passing the $1MM mark.

Wedgewood had a good run as the backup in Dallas which allowed him to get a 50% raise on this deal with Nashville.  Barring injury, he won’t be counted on to play as many games as a top-level backup and if that winds up being the case, that will prevent him from getting closer to the top backup money ($3MM or more) that many netminders have received in recent years.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Alexandre Carrier ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Thomas Novak ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($4.5MM, UFA)

The decision to sign O’Reilly as their top center last summer was a bit of a curious one considering that he hadn’t been in that role for several years and the fact he was coming off his lowest point-per-game rate since he was a teenager.  However, he showed that he still had a high level of offense in his game while continuing to be an above-average player at the faceoff dot and a strong defender.  Even if there’s a bit of a dip in his production given some of the extra firepower brought in this summer, this is still a good price tag if O’Reilly ultimately settles in as more of a second liner.  There may be some concern for the final year of the deal when he’s 36 but right now, this has worked out quite well for the Preds.

Novak was a feel-good story in 2022-23, putting up 43 points in 51 games after being recalled from the minors.  He showed last year that the performance wasn’t just a mirage, surpassing the 40-point mark again, earning himself this new deal in the process.  As long as Novak continues to stay around the 40-point range, Nashville will get at least a reasonable return on this contract.

Carrier bounced back well after a rough 2022-23 season, spending a lot of time in Nashville’s top four which gave him some leverage heading to the open market.  He opted not to test it, instead accepting a 50% increase in his cap hit, not a bad outcome for someone who only became a regular NHL player in 2021-22.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Filip Forsberg ($8.5MM through 2029-30)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
F Jonathan Marchessault ($5.5MM through 2028-29)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM in 2024-25, $7.74MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
D Brady Skjei ($7MM through 2030-31)
F Steven Stamkos ($8MM through 2027-28)

Forsberg’s contract discussions came down close to the wire two years ago although they were able to get this agreement worked out just in time.  It carried some risk considering he only had one season above 64 points but after an injury-limited 2022-23 campaign, he had a career year on what was a resurgent top line.  If that’s repeatable and he can hang around 40 goals a season, this will hold up well for the foreseeable future.

Stamkos was the surprise addition in free agency with many thinking he’d ultimately stay in Tampa Bay.  The 34-year-old has averaged over a point per game in seven of the last eight seasons, coming up just short in the other.  While there is understandable concern that his production will drop over time, the Predators should be able to get a good return on this agreement for a couple of years at the very least.  Marchessault was another pickup that few predicted after how well things went for him in Vegas.  Again, it might be hard for him to live up to the contract by the end given his age but in the first few seasons, he should be able to provide solid value.

Josi has been one of the top defensemen in the NHL in recent years and has either won the Norris or been a finalist in three of the last five seasons.  Few blueliners have been as consistent as he is offensively while he continues to log over 24 minutes per game.  He’s a couple million below the top-paid veterans, making this a bit of a value deal despite the high price tag.  Skjei comes in to replace Ryan McDonagh who requested a trade back to Tampa Bay over the offseason.  As long as he can hold down the number two role and continue to be a solid secondary producer as he was in Carolina, the Preds should get a good return.  But once more, his ability to hold that role at the end of the deal is in question though that is normal when signing top free agents.

Saros was the subject of trade speculation for a while with Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings but his new deal put an end to that and kickstarted the departure of Askarov to San Jose earlier this summer.  This season, he’ll be on a contract that’s well below market value for a high-end starter while the fact his deal came in close to $1MM below Connor Hellebuyck was a tidy piece of business as well.  Starting in 2025-26, Saros will be among the top-paid netminders but he has shown himself to be worthy of being in that territory.

Buyouts

F Matt Duchene ($5.556MM in 2024-25, $6.556MM in 2025-26, $1.556MM in 2026-27 through 2028-29)
F Kyle Turris ($2MM through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Mattias Ekholm ($250K through 2025-26)
F Ryan Johansen ($4MM in 2024-25)*

*-Philadelphia has announced an intention to terminate Johansen’s contract with Johansen’s camp indicating it intends to grieve the move.  If the termination is ruled valid, this amount would come off the books.  If a settlement at a lower amount is reached, Nashville would be responsible for half of it but the cost would still be lowered.  GM Barry Trotz has indicated he does not intend to spend any potential savings until the matter is resolved.

Still To Sign

F Juuso Parssinen
F Philip Tomasino

Tomasino started with the Predators last season but was ultimately assigned to the minors in February and didn’t return.  That has him heading for what should be a short-term contract, perhaps even a one-year agreement.  But with 70 points in 148 NHL games, it’s not the typical post-ELC agreement for someone just trying to make it full-time; he has more experience than most in that situation.  A one-year pact could check in around $1.4MM while a two-year bridge could be closer to $1.75MM.  As for Parssinen, he also found himself sent down midseason and didn’t return.  That puts him in a similar situation as Tomasino but with 37 points in 89 NHL contests, he doesn’t quite have as much negotiating power.  A short-term agreement should be coming his way as well; a one-year pact should be around $1MM and a two-year contract around $1.2MM.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Saros (this season)
Worst Value: Schenn

Looking Ahead

Even with nearly $12MM in dead money on the books (possibly less pending resolution of Johansen’s situation), the Predators find themselves with a bit of flexibility heading into the upcoming season, some of which will be cut into when Parssinen and Tomasino sign.  Sitting with three first-round picks and a chance to bank some in-season space, it feels like they are in a spot to try to make a splash at some point on the trade front.

Turning to 2025-26, they already have nearly $79MM on the books but most of the team intact so they might be able to make another addition or retain whoever they get at the trade deadline.  2026-27 sees a big drop in dead cap charges from Duchene and many players on expiring contracts so that could be another point for Trotz to reshape his roster at that time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.