Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is Columbus.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $63,201,666 (under the $88MM Upper Limit, also under the $65MM Lower Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Adam Fantilli (two years, $950K)
D David Jiricek (two years, $918K)
F Dmitri Voronkov (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Fantilli: $3.2MM
Jiricek: $1MM
Total: $4.2MM

Fantilli had a solid first half of the season relative to the Blue Jackets’ struggles but his campaign ended early due to a calf laceration.  Still, if he can take a step forward this season, he’s someone that the team may look to buck the trend and work out a long-term agreement with.  It wouldn’t be surprising if the seven-year, $50MM deal that Seattle gave Matthew Beniers would be used as a possible comparable.  Fantilli has $1MM of ‘A’ bonuses in his deal (four at $250K apiece) and if he stays healthy, he should hit at least a couple of those which could help push the Blue Jackets closer to the cap floor.  Voronkov took a while to get going but turned in a quality freshman year himself.  However, there has been speculation that his desire might be to return to Russia.  If that’s not the case, he’s someone who might be in line for a $3MM bridge deal, more if he has a more productive showing this season.

Jiricek split last season between Columbus and AHL Cleveland but passed the 40-game mark to accrue a season of service time.  However, the limited role he had makes a long-term deal unlikely at this point unless he takes on a top role within the next year or so.  His bonuses are also four ‘As’ but without much of an offensive game, he may be limited to aiming for ones geared toward plus/minus, blocked shots, and ATOI.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Justin Danforth ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Trey Fix-Wolansky ($775K, RFA)
D Jordan Harris ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($775K, UFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Ivan Provorov ($4.75MM, UFA)*
G Daniil Tarasov ($1.05MM, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($900K, UFA)

*-Los Angeles is retaining an additional $2MM on Provorov’s contract.

Kuraly has nicely filled a bottom-six center spot in the first three seasons with his hometown team.  However, even with a slightly bigger role than he had with Boston, his offensive production has been somewhat limited.  Accordingly, while he might be able to land another multi-year deal around this price point, it’s hard to see him commanding much more than that.  Olivier has become an enforcer who can play more than just spot minutes which should help his cause heading to the open market.  While a lot of teams don’t carry that type of player now, enough still do that at least a small raise could be achievable.

Danforth has turned into somewhat of a Swiss army knife for the Blue Jackets.  Somewhat of a late bloomer, he opted to take an early extension last time but he might be better off testing the market this time around.  If he can have another season of double-digit goals and 25-plus points, his versatility could make him very intriguing on the open market, allowing him to potentially double this price tag.  As for van Riemsdyk, he was a late signing due to Columbus being limited up front.  That he didn’t have much interest in a guaranteed deal beforehand was a bit surprising but it might forecast a similar fate next summer.  Fix-Wolansky is far from guaranteed a roster spot but is at the point where there isn’t much left to prove in the minors.  He could just be a high-end AHL player but even so, some of those have received one-way deals in recent years.

Provorov had a decent first season in Columbus but still came up short of the offensive production he had in his best days with Philadelphia.  That will likely limit his earnings upside on his next deal as the expectation is that he’d be more productive by this point.  However, the fact he’ll hit the open market at 28 should offset that somewhat; that’s a few years younger than a lot of impact blueliners for their first trip through unrestricted free agency.  A breakout year under new head coach Dean Evason could change things but as it stands now, Provorov might be someone who winds up accepting a contract very close to the one he has now, both in salary and term (he’s ending a six-year agreement this season).

Harris was acquired from Montreal in the Patrik Laine trade and is likely to have a similar role with Columbus as he did with the Canadiens, that of a fourth or fifth defender with limited special teams time.  With salary arbitration rights, he should be able to push past the $2MM mark but with limited production, his earnings upside will be capped.  Johnson accepted a one-year deal at the league minimum this summer, a price point he’s likely to stay at if he signs for 2025-26.

Tarasov bounced back relatively well after a rough 2022-23 campaign but still hasn’t progressed past the level of a possible backup goalie.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play a bit more this season which could push his asking price to the $2MM range on another short-term agreement.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Yegor Chinakhov ($2.1MM, RFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Cole Sillinger ($2.25MM, RFA)

Jenner hasn’t been able to get to the 30-goal mark in recent years but has quietly produced at that pace for three straight years but has simply dealt with injuries.  He’s a legitimate two-way top-six center on a deal that was a team-friendly pact from the moment he signed it.  Assuming he continues to log around 20 minutes a night, a multi-year deal worth more than $6MM per season could be where his market lands in 2026.

Sillinger rebounded well after a particularly rough sophomore year but he still isn’t established enough to the point where a long-term deal made no sense for either side.  This bridge deal from earlier this summer buys both sides more time to evaluate.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible next time out and at this point, it’s hard to project where he’ll land as his offensive game still has a lot of room to grow.  Chinakhov took some steps forward last season when healthy, giving the Blue Jackets some secondary scoring.  Still, he’s not yet a consistently reliable top-six forward which is where he’ll need to get to in order to get a raise of significance two years from now.

Gudbranson’s contract was widely panned at the time as a third-pairing player getting more money and term than many expected.  However, he has played top-four minutes with the Blue Jackets, giving them at least some bang for their buck, especially after a career year offensively.  That said, he’ll be 34 when he hits the open market and has a physical style that tends not to age well.  It’d be surprising if he eclipses $4MM on his next deal as a result.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Kent Johnson ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Kirill Marchenko ($3.85MM, RFA)
G Elvis Merzlikins ($5.4MM, UFA)

Marchenko only has two NHL seasons under his belt but surpassed the 20-goal mark in each of them, giving him a bit of leverage in contract talks which didn’t seem to go to his liking early on.  This is on the pricier end for a typical bridge agreement but both sides will get to see if he has another gear to get to before he gets one more crack at restricted free agency with arbitration rights and a $3.975MM qualifying offer.  If he can keep scoring 20-plus goals, he’ll be in line for a sizable raise next time out.  Johnson really only has one full NHL season under his belt; he burned a year with limited action after college and missed half of last year due to injury and some time in the minors.  That made a three-year deal a bit surprising, especially at a rate that looks like a team-friendly one.  It won’t take much for Johnson to out-perform this contract as he looks to establish himself as a top-six piece.  If that happens, he’ll more than double this next time out.

Merzlikins did have better numbers last season but that was a pretty low bar to meet considering how much he struggled in 2022-23.  Even so, his level of performance was well below league average for a backup goalie let alone a starter.  He has suggested in the past that he’d welcome a trade but earlier this summer, GM Don Waddell noted how hard that would be, saying “Let’s be honest, nobody is going to trade for that contract. Nobody”.  That about says everything you need to know about the value perspective or lack thereof.  At this point, a change of scenery could help him rebuild some value but at this point, his next contract seems likely to be a one-year, low-cost ‘prove it’ type of agreement.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Sean Monahan ($5.5MM through 2028-29)
D Damon Severson ($6.25MM through 2030-31)
D Zach Werenski ($9.583MM through 2027-28)

Monahan was their only addition of note in free agency this summer, giving them some extra depth down the middle while intending to reunite him with Johnny Gaudreau before the latter was tragically killed earlier this offseason.  When healthy, Monahan can still be a legitimate top-six center and getting a middleman at this price point to run a second line is market value.  But with a long injury history, it’s a move that certainly carries some risk as well.

Werenski’s contract is certainly on the high side but he performed like a legitimate number one defenseman last season, a strong bounce-back after an injury-riddled 2023-24 campaign.  If he can stay healthy and play at a similar level moving forward, they’ll do well enough with this contract, even if it’s far from a bargain.  Severson’s first year with Columbus didn’t quite go as planned.  He played a bit higher up the depth chart than he did in his final season with the Devils but it didn’t result in the bounce-back they were hoping for.  Perhaps a new system will get him going but if he continues to play around the level of a number three defender, this deal will be an above-market one.

Buyouts

D Adam Boqvist (cap credit of $67K in 2023-24, $533K in 2024-25)
F Alexander Wennberg ($892K through 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Johnson
Worst Value: Merzlikins

Looking Ahead

It’s rare at this point of an offseason that there’s a team that needs to add salary but that’s the spot the Blue Jackets find themselves in although Waddell has spoken to the league and the NHLPA about a possible one-year waiver.  Fantilli and Jiricek hitting some of their bonuses could help elevate them past that threshold but at this point, Columbus has the flexibility to do pretty much anything when it comes to adding to their roster.

The 2026-27 season could see some big jumps cap-wise based on their current roster as Fantilli, Sillinger and Jenner could need pricey deals while that will be the time for them to look into potentially expensive extensions for Johnson and Marchenko as well if they progress as intended.  But until they add some high-priced veterans in the coming years, the cap shouldn’t be an issue any time soon for the Blue Jackets.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.