Entering a contract year, there still doesn’t appear to be a ton of urgency between the Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner to get an extension done. Darren Dreger of TSN said on TSN Toronto 1050’s “First Up” today that the relationship between Marner and the Leafs is “in a good place,” but no extension news is imminent with training camp beginning next week:
I don’t want to misconstrue that with the belief that an extension is looming, that it’s going to happen quickly. Obviously, it’s going to be a top-of-mind, big story from the beginning of training camp and probably until the day that an extension with committed and announced, but I don’t have the sense that that’s going to happen any time soon. And I think both sides are okay with that. Marner knows that this is yet another big year for that young leadership group, and he’s a big part of that. So, he’s focused on a good start for himself, for his team. I don’t get the sense that there’s contract pressure on Marner. He’s happy for it to be quiet. There’s good dialogue between Darren Ferris and Brad Treliving; they’ve got a good relationship, but they’re not in heavy negotiations. Again, both sides are okay with that. There doesn’t appear to be a rush, at this stage.
Trade rumors began dogging Marner this offseason almost immediately after Bruins winger David Pastrňák ended Toronto’s season in overtime of Game 7 of the First Round. The Predators were mentioned early on as a team that would be interested if Marner decided to waive his no-movement clause, a bit of news that foreshadowed their aggressiveness on the free-agent market.
But there hasn’t been much substantive reporting on Marner’s situation for weeks, even dating back to the beginning of free agency. Thus far, there’s still been no indication that he’s considering waiving his NMC to facilitate a trade, and at least initial extension talks have begun.
Marner, 27, is entering the final season of the bonus-laden six-year, $65.41MM deal he inked as an RFA late in the summer of 2019. Since inking the contract, Marner has averaged over 20 minutes per game in every season, finishing top-10 in Selke Trophy voting twice, and averaged 1.24 points per game – eighth in the NHL during that time. A top-five winger in the league, he’s a playmaking superstar on a team full of high-powered talent.
But whether Toronto, now with Treliving entering his second season as GM and Craig Berube entering his first as head coach, will be willing to give Marner enough of a raise on his current $10.9MM cap hit to make a long-term agreement remains to be seen. The team already has over $61.7MM in cap hit commitments for 2025-26 with nine open roster spots, and an eight-year extension for Marner at this stage would likely finish in the low $11MM range, Evolving Hockey projects.
Unfortunately for the Leafs, Leon Draisaitl’s recent eight-year, $14MM AAV extension likely bumped that number up. Marner’s 415 points over the past five years pale in comparison to Drasaitl’s 538, especially considering a similar amount of games played, but Marner is a far superior defensive talent with penalty-killing upside. He very likely won’t match that price tag, even if he does hit the open market next summer, but it could be enough to push his next deal into the $12MM range per season.
Big fan of Mitch. It would be fun to see what he can do on a different squad.
Some of the best edgework in the business.
I’d still like to see him traded instead of re-signed for something like $12M. I also understand not wanting to waive the no trade. Ultimately, Matthews holds a lot of cards here. If he wants Marner here, Marner’s going to get everything he wants in negotiations.