Summer Synopsis: Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars didn’t have much to worry about this summer. They went to the Western Conference Finals last season, and while they were trumped by the Oilers in six games, all signs point towards Dallas only improving more as young stars like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, and Thomas Harley get another summer of training under their belt. That’s permitted a quiet off-season, though the Stars were still clearly intentional with every step they took – leading to notable additions through the draft, free agency, and re-signings. That should set Dallas up for yet another year of full-season success – and potentially a last hoorah, with 11 pending free agents next summer, including long-time star Jamie Benn and starting goaltender Jake Oettinger.

Draft

1-29: F Emil Hemming, TPS (Finland)
5-158: D Niilopekka Muhonen, KalPa (Finland)
7-222: F William Samuelsson, Södertälje SK (Sweden)

Dallas’ quiet summer kicked off with a quiet draft. They made just three selections, including a return to the first round after no day-one action last year. They made the most of their top pick, reeling in impressive power forward Emil Hemming. Hemming graduated to TPS’ Liiga roster this season, playing in their first 40 games and scoring the first 11 points of his professional career. He looked confident while doing so, doing well to match pro-level physicality and pace and still finding space to unleash a booming shot. A quiet World Juniors – two points in seven games – kept Hemming low on many scouting lists, but he made up for it with four goals and six points in five games at the World U-18 Challenge. He showed that his heft, positioning, and shooting were clearly above many peers, but he needs to improve his ability to create plays for himself before he’s ready for a starring role.

Still, it’s hard to doubt Hemming’s upside if the smart-drafting Stars were willing to bet on him. The same can be said for Muhonen and Samuelsson, who both sat outside the public view thanks to low-scoring U20 seasons. That meant just 11 points in 27 games for Muhonen, though his daunting 6’4″, 194-lb frame gave him physicality and reach that was hard to beat. He’s smart on loose pucks and knows how to spark a breakout, though Muhonen will need to continue getting faster if he wants to match pro pace. Samuelsson was a bit more productive as his team’s top center, netting 44 points in 50 games while showing proficiency in every role. He’s well-built and not scared of physical play but is subject to getting a bit sucked into play. That holdup, and a lack of any breathtaking traits, pushed Samuelsson into the draft’s final few picks – but his hockey IQ and two-way ability will keep him a name to watch in Dallas’ system.

UFA Signings

F Cameron Hughes (one year, $775K)*
F Kole Lind (one year, $775K)*
F Matt Duchene (one year, $3MM)
F Sam Steel (one year, $1.2MM)
F Colin Blackwell (one year, $775K)
D Brendan Smith (one year, $1MM)
D Ilya Lyubushkin (three years, $9.75MM)
D Kyle Capobianco (two year, $1.6MM)*
D Nils Lundkvist (one year, $1.2MM)
D Alexander Petrovic (two years, $775K)*
D Matt Dumba (two years, $7.5MM)
G Casey DeSmith (three years, $3MM)
G Magnus Hellberg (one year, $775K)*

* denotes two-way contract

Dallas was plenty busy during free agency, though their string of moves didn’t culminate in too much of an NHL impact. The re-signing of Matt Duchene headlines their moves, giving Dallas another year of their second-line center at a major discount. Duchene scored 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games last season but will now spend his age-34 season on the cheapest salary since his entry-level contract ended in 2012. That’s likely a show of Duchene’s confidence in the Stars’ lineup next season and an acknowledgment of how much he wants to play there. Duchene’s career has seen a resurgence since he returned from a 2021 injury – kicked off by a dazzling 46 goals and 86 points in 78 games with the Nashville Predators in 2021-22. He hasn’t reached that scoring since but has tallied two 20-goal seasons and continued to hold a strong second-line role. His discounted salary should lock him into that role again next year, though he’ll face more and more competition from starring youngsters like Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque.

Dallas’ other moves mostly served to overturn their blue line, bringing in players like Ilya Lyubushkin, Brendan Smith, and Matt Dumba to help replace Jani Hakanpaa and Christopher Tanev. The trio will join Nils Lundkvist, Alexander Petrovic, and Esa Lindell to help fill the numerous holes on Dallas’ blue line. The right side is entirely open, offering great opportunity for Dumba, Lundkvist, and Lyubushkin – though none of the three seem poised to match Heiskanen’s energy on the top pair. How Dallas’ newly-constructed blue-line clicks will underline what their Achilles’ heel is this season or how active they need to be on the trade market.

The remaining free agent signings will shuffle into their respective lineup roles – with DeSmith preparing for 20 to 30 games behind star starter Jake Oettinger, Sam Steel and Colin Blackwell holding up the fourth-line, and the list of two-way deals all seemingly set for the minors. Training camp can turn premature planning onto its head, though Dallas’ lineup seems fairly easy to project.

RFA Re-Signings

F Mathias Emilio Pettersen (one year, $775K)*
F Matej Blumel (one year, $775K)*
F Oskar Back (one year, $775K)*

The Stars’ management had to find a vacation somewhere, and their time off showed in their RFA signings, which stayed limited to the minor leagues. Matej Blumel stands as the most notable of the three after posting an impressive 31 goals and 62 points in 72 AHL games this season. He was the final piece of Texas’ red-hot top line, alongside AHL MVP Mavrik Bourque and NHL call-up Logan Stankoven. It was a promising follow-up to Blumel’s AHL rookie year last season when he managed 44 points in 58 games and earned the first six games of his NHL career. He isn’t often listed as one of Dallas’ top prospects, but he could be a dark horse for making the jump to the Dallas lineup if the team runs into injuries or struggles.

Emilio Pettersen is another notable re-signing after posting eight points in 12 games with the Texas Stars following a mid-season trade from the Calgary Wranglers. He continued that momentum into the postseason, netting five points in seven games and bringing his season totals up to 43 points in 73 games. That’s a promising step in Pettersen’s young career, and he’ll now be positioned to challenge Oskar Back as the Texas’ second-line center. Back managed 36 points in 59 games last season, continuing the modest AHL scoring he’s seen for the last three years. He and Pettersen face a golden opportunity to earn major minor-league ice time this season but don’t seem likely to jump off the page much more than that.

Departures

F Ty Dellandrea (traded to San Jose)
F Radek Faksa (traded to St. Louis)
F Max Ellis (unqualified, unrestricted free agent)
F Craig Smith (Chicago, one-year, $1MM)
F Fredrik Karlstrom (Islanders, one-year, $775K)*
F Scott Reedy (unrestricted free agent)
D Chris Tanev (traded to Toronto)
D Derrick Pouliot (Tampa Bay, one-year, $775K)*
D Gavin Bayreuther (signed with Lausanne, NL)
D Jani Hakanpaa (Toronto, two-years, $3MM)
G Cole Brady (unsigned, unrestricted free agent)
G Scott Wedgewood (two-years, $3MM)

Dallas traded a second-round pick and defense prospect Artem Grushnikov to the Calgary Flames for 38 games of Tanev but had to say goodbye when it became clear that the stud defensive-defenseman wouldn’t re-sign with the team. Where he’d go next became a bit of a saga, ending with Tanev’s rights being traded to Toronto for a future sixth-round pick. That kind of turnaround is never ideal, especially when the rental doesn’t end in a Stanley Cup win. But Dallas quickly reigned in control of their off-season, only parting with a handful of fringe-lineup pieces – and being the ones to make the call on trading Faksa and Dellandrea, allowing both to find better opportunities elsewhere. Their departures have opened a few menial holes in Dallas’ lineup, which could prove a good opportunity for some of Dallas’ many top prospects, though likely won’t result in much of a change to the 2024 roster. The same can be said about the string of depth defenders departing Dallas – Hakanpaa, Pouliot, and Bayreuther – who were easily replaced by new signees and top prospects. How Dallas chooses to deploy those prospects will be among the most important questions facing their next campaign, but the list of departures helps give Dallas plenty of options.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Dallas Stars have an impressive $6.244MM in open cap space entering late-August, but that number will soon be zapped up by the inevitable extension to RFA Thomas Harley. Harley is Dallas’ final RFA headed into the new season and should command nearly all of the Stars’ remaining budget. That could push Dallas into a tight cap squeeze when the season rolls around – but with full control over Harley’s negotiations, it’s unlikely that the Stars back themselves into too much of a corner.

Key Questions

Where Will the Prospects Fit In? It’s no secret that next year’s Stars lineup will prominently feature top prospects. Each of Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, and Thomas Harley should earn confident roles on Dallas’ top lines – but there’s plenty of talent pushing for top ice time behind them. Mavrik Bourque is the reigning AHL MVP after posting 26 goals and a league-leading 77 points in just 71 games. He formed an incredible tandem with Stankoven through the first half of the year and could be poised to reprise the role next season. Lian Bichsel also seems poised to push for NHL ice after serving as a top option on Rogle BK’s deep run into the SHL playoffs. Bichsel already has seven points and 16 games of AHL experience under his belt and could fast-track his climb into Dallas’ lineup with a hot return to North America. Even recent draftee Emil Hemming seems capable of making a late-season push. Hemming is expected to join the OHL’s Barrie Colts next season but isn’t limited by the NHL/CHL Agreement and could find his way into the pro heights after Barrie’s season. The trio of Bourque, Bichsel, and Hemming are just three of the numerous Stars prospects that look poised for a breakout next season, but they’ll have to break through a thick ceiling to work into a Dallas roster largely dedicated to veterans.

When Will Harley Sign? It may be a bit premature to count Harley on the Stars roster. After all, he’s still without a contract for next season – standing as Dallas’ last remaining RFA before the new year can really begin. There’s no question that Harley deserves a new deal. He broke out in a big way last season, netting 47 points through 79 games in what was the first full NHL season of his career. He was a proud member of the Dallas top-four, averaging over 21 minutes of ice tie through the regular season and nearly 24 minutes in the playoffs. It’s clear Dallas trusts him, but to what extent will his next deal indicate this? Will Harley lock himself to Dallas with a deal akin to Mattias Samuelsson and Kaiden Guhle, or will he ink a short-term bridge deal and look for a raise after a few more strong seasons? Those questions might not influence Dallas’ 2024-25 campaign too much – but they’ll have major implications as the Stars look to turn a dazzling prospect pool into a legacy.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.