Hurricanes Have A Decision To Make With Their Second Buyout Window

On Monday, the Hurricanes avoided salary arbitration with restricted free agent Martin Necas, inking him to a two-year, $13MM contract.  He was their only player to file so with that case now settled, a short-term second buyout window has opened up.

As a refresher, teams get their second buyout window once a team’s arbitration cases have been resolved.  It opens up 72 hours after signing and lasts for 48 hours (meaning time is nearly up for Carolina to consider this).  The only contracts that can be bought out in this window are for players with cap hits higher than $4MM and the player had to have been on the team’s roster at the last trade deadline.

At first glance, the idea of using the window might not make much sense.  After all, they have $6.44MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, an amount that is higher than most teams.

However, it’s a misleading figure as they still have restricted free agent Seth Jarvis to re-sign; the winger wasn’t eligible for arbitration.  The 22-year-old is coming off a breakout year, one that saw him record 33 goals and 34 assists in 81 regular season games before adding nine more points in 11 playoff contests.  A first-round pick in 2020, it’s fair to say that the Hurricanes envision Jarvis as being a core piece of their long-term future.

Generally, Jarvis is the type of player that they’d like to sign to a max-term eight-year agreement, buying an additional four years of team control.  However, coming off the year he had, it’s quite likely that such an agreement would cost more than what they have in cap room.  For the price tag to come in around $6MM, it would likely need to be a three-year bridge agreement.  So if GM Eric Tulsky wants to sign Jarvis for that long, he’ll need to create some cap space.

One way to do that is in this second window where one potential candidate stands out, Jesperi Kotkaniemi.  He has not lived up to his third-overall draft billing and is coming off his most disappointing season, one that saw him notch 12 goals and 15 assists in 79 games while logging only 12:59 per game.  That’s not a great return on a $4.82MM AAV, especially when that contract runs through the 2029-30 season.

Typically, a buyout on that expensive and long of a contract would make no sense.  But because Kotkaniemi is only 24, the buyout cost is one one-third, not the standard two-thirds.  Accordingly, the buyout would break down as follows:

2024-25 to 2026-27: $835K per season
2027-28 to 2029-30: $455K per season
2030-31 to 2035-36: $835K per season

That means that a Kotkaniemi buyout would save the Hurricanes $3.985MM, bringing their cap space total to $10.425MM which is ample space to give Jarvis a max-term extension while giving them enough flexibility to afford a replacement roster player for Kotkaniemi.

Are there other ways to open up that cap space?  Of course; they could look to the trade market and try to find a way to shed salary that way.  And let’s face it, the prospect of paying Kotkaniemi until 2036 not to play for them is far from appealing.  Frankly, it would be a surprise if they went this route.  But if they want to work out a long-term deal with Jarvis and need to free up the money, this is one route they can go but only for a few more hours.