PHR Mailbag: Stamkos, Flyers, Konecny, Stars, Blackhawks, Utah, Rangers

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include possible contract comparables for Flyers winger Travis Konecny, Chicago’s active offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

GBear: The assumption is that Stamkos will play on the wing in Nashville because he’s played in that position recently with Tampa, but is there any good reason why he couldn’t switch back to center, which is where the need is on the 2nd line?

It all comes down to trying to deploy Stamkos best.  He has split his time between the wing and center in recent years and as he ages, it stands to reason that they’re going to want him on the wing where there are fewer responsibilities while being a triggerman is better as a winger than a center.  Bringing in a high-priced player and then not putting him in the best situation to succeed is a little counterproductive.

Having said that, I don’t see why Nashville couldn’t use him down the middle next season; I think he can handle that (it’s the later years I’m more skeptical about).  He’s pretty effective on the draw and if it pushes Thomas Novak onto the third line to be more of a secondary scorer (the role that’s best for him), that would be ideal.

But it’s a short-term solution.  Stamkos should be a winger before too long while Novak and Cody Glass (a potential trade candidate in the coming weeks given their cap situation) aren’t great fits in that second center role.  I don’t think Juuso Parssinen will get to that level and their best center prospects aren’t on the verge of being NHL-ready either.  GM Barry Trotz filled a lot of holes this summer but a better fit at the 2C position is something that should be on next year’s shopping list.

wiyasm: Will the Flyers bring in a true top center to pair with Michkov? Are they putting their trust in either Couts or Frost? Or are they going to make a trade to find someone?

I like Morgan Frost as a secondary option but I’d be surprised if he becomes a bona fide number one option.  While they used a lottery pick on Jett Luchanko taking him 13th overall, I’m not sure he’s a top liner down the road either.  And while they’re paying Sean Couturier like a top-liner, he’s not that type of player anymore.  One day, they’re going to have to do something about that.

But one day is not today.  The Flyers are still very much in the building phase of their rebuild; they’re not expecting to go and push for a playoff spot next season.  If they were, we’d see them using their LTIR pool, which should surpass the $10MM mark.  Accordingly, there’s no immediate need to go find a top center to play with Matvei Michkov.

For next season, I think they’re going to have him playing with Couturier and Frost at times.  Couturier would be able to take some of the defensive pressure off of him while still allowing them to evaluate Michkov against top opposition.  Assuming that goes good and bad (the transition to a key role is rarely seamless), there should be times when Michkov is dropped to play with Frost to allow him to face some lesser checking and try to get more balance on the top two lines.  What they have now is good enough for that type of evaluation.

Eventually, I think Philadelphia will make some sort of move to bring in an impactful center.  A trade is going to be hard as those types of players rarely become available.  But if one becomes available in free agency, they have enough flexibility to make a very competitive offer.  I think that’s their Plan A with Plan B signing a second-line center and hoping that player has chemistry with Michkov.

Emoney123: As Travis Konecny enters the final year of his contract, what are the comparable contracts if the Flyers try to re-sign him or what might be a reasonable return if a trade is a better option for the rebuild?

How important is Developmental Camp and scrimmages?

Early indications are that Konecny’s camp is hoping for a double-digit AAV, with the expectation that there should be another fair-sized jump in the salary cap for 2025-26 when his new deal kicks in.  I think the Flyers would prefer that it falls within the $8MM range.  As is often the case with these things, I suspect an eventual agreement would fall around the middle, probably starting with a nine.

For recent comparables, the best ones I could find were centers.  I went looking for players who were UFAs at the expiration of their current contracts (which took Timo Meier, an oft-cited comparable, off the table) but still in their late 20s.  For simplicity, let’s assume a $4MM jump in the cap for 2025-26, bringing it to $92MM so we can come up with potential amounts based on cap hit percentage (CH%).

Bo Horvat (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.69
Platform year: 70 points
CH%: 10.18%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.3656MM

Mathew Barzal (NYI), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.88
Platform year: 51 points (in 58 games due to injury)
CH%: 10.96%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $10.0832MM

Dylan Larkin (DET), $8.5MM x eight years
Career PPG: 0.78
Platform year: 79 points
CH%: 10.42%
2025-26 AAV based on CH%: $9.5864MM

Konecny, meanwhile, has a career PPG of 0.71 and is coming off a platform year of 61 points but in 60 games.  That tends to push me more towards Larkin’s comparable so an AAV around $9.5MM seems like a reasonable price tag.

I think their best chance to trade him has already gone out the window.  With most teams having built their rosters for next season, there probably isn’t a good landing spot for him now.  So then you’re probably looking at an in-season move and as we all know, top-end rentals with salary retention tend to yield a first-round pick, a quality prospect, and sometimes another lesser piece.  If Konecny has another point per game season heading into the trade deadline sometime in March, they might be able to do a bit better than that depending what’s on the market.

As for development camps and scrimmages, as a fan, I don’t put much stock into them.  It’s more for teams to establish or update baselines for physical testing and get a feel for how their summer training is progressing with a chance to make some tweaks if needed.  Personally, rookie camp showings are more important as that runs into training camp; a good showing there could give them a leg up heading into the preseason.  Meanwhile, a June or July summer camp isn’t necessarily indicative of what’s to come for rookie camp.

bottlesup: If the Stars by our choice or not start casting off veterans, do we still have enough young talent to stay competitive for the Cup?

Before getting to the multi-year element of this question, Dallas did a pretty good job of not casting off veterans this summer.  Yes, they lost Chris Tanev but that was widely expected given their cap situation.  Their back end remains a bit shaky but on the whole, I think they’re one of the true Cup contenders heading into the upcoming season.

I’m not sure there’s going to be a big casting off of veterans next summer.  They have over $23MM in expiring UFA contracts in 2025, giving them ample savings to keep the core players they want (Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston, for example, are RFAs needing new deals) and some of the existing veterans while having enough left to replace some others while giving players like Mavrik Bourque a full-time look if he isn’t in that role next season already.  They’ll be alright for that summer.

In 2026, they don’t have quite as much coming off the books ($11.5MM in UFA contracts for three players) but that plus another expected cap increase should be enough for a new deal for RFA Jason Robertson while again allowing them to retain or replace some of the veterans at least.  And then the following summer, Tyler Seguin is off the books, opening up nearly $10MM alone in extra flexibility.

Long story short, I don’t think there’s a big veteran exodus coming in Dallas because of how their expiring contracts are largely staggered.  That, coupled with a decent prospect pool, should be enough to keep them as a legitimate threat for a while yet.

Unclemike1526: I thought Kyle Davidson did a great job in Free Agency even if most of the so-called ”Hockey Experts” don’t seem to agree with me. That is up until the T.J. Brodie signing. One I didn’t understand the signing because he wasn’t very good last year and two, I didn’t get the two years. Was there that big a market for him that they had to add a second year to get him? I mean the money isn’t a problem because the Hawks have tons of it but it just seemed a curious signing to me. And what did you think of the Hawks Draft and FA overall? Thoughts? Thanks as always.

The success or lack thereof in Chicago’s offseason is contingent on whether you agree with the direction they took that will see several of their younger players sent to the minors.  If you’re of the mindset that you want your top youngsters getting big minutes in the NHL, you’re not going to like what they’ve done.  But if you like the idea of having fewer youngsters up but playing with a better group while the rest are playing big minutes in what should be a winning environment in AHL Rockford, you’re going to like what they did.  I’m in the latter camp.

While it might seem like they went a bit overboard, they have several expiring contracts up front while Alec Martinez is on a one-year pact.  They can easily move some of their younger players into the NHL for 2025-26 where they’ll be a bit more ready for the challenge.  So I was a fan of the strategy they took although another cap-clearinghouse move wouldn’t have hurt had one been available.

As for Brodie, the second year doesn’t shock me.  As part of our planning for the Top 50 UFA list we do each year, we include a contract projection.  Mine was two years at $3.5MM per season so two at $3.75MM is close enough.  (Having said that, I didn’t have Chicago on my shortlist of landing spots.)  Did he struggle in Toronto?  Yes.  But he was playing nearly 22 minutes a night.  That context gets missed a lot.  So he’s not a top-pairing player anymore.  That’s not a big deal.  Chicago isn’t paying him to be a top-pairing player, they’re paying him to be an 18-20-minute piece, one who can play on both sides of the ice.  I think there was enough demand for that type of player that someone was giving him the second year.

Draft-wise, I was fine with Artyom Levshunov with the second pick.  Ivan Demidov would have been my pick but I understand the value of a high-end right-shot defenseman; those are hard to come by.  Given their young center depth, I was a bit surprised with the Sacha Boisvert pick when Cole Eiserman was still on the board but value-wise, he was ranked in that range so it’s not a bad pick.  I didn’t have Marek Vanacker as a late first-round pick but once you get to that point, there’s not much of a difference between a late first and an early second so I won’t quibble much there.  Out of their other picks, John Mustard and A.J. Spellacy were good value for where they were taken.  If I had to quibble, I’d have liked to have seen a second defender come before their final pick but otherwise, I think they did fine.

PyramidHeadcrab: With what’s-his-name fumbling the Phoenix Coyotes ball, do you think the Utah Hockey Club becomes the Utah Coyotes? Or will they be their own thing?

What’s a goofy name you’d love to see them adopt?

So, what’s the latest with the Coyotes?  PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan relayed earlier this week (Twitter link) that the now-defunct franchise had to buy back any unsold items from the team store at Mullett Arena with the items eventually being donated to Goodwill.  That’s just a random aside as the franchise continues to wrap up business operations.

As to your first question, I don’t think Utah will want to purchase the rights to the Coyotes branding.  With how poorly things went in recent years, why would a new franchise looking to establish its own identity want to use a moniker with so many negative connotations?  I expect they’ll want to do their own thing.

While many people are intrigued about the team name, that’s something that hasn’t interested me too much.  I’d rather it not be some sort of outlandish or goofy name if I’m being honest.  My only other request?  The name is a plural, getting away from the trend of teams (not just in the NHL but more generally) opting for a non-pluralized moniker.  That bothers me way more than it really should for some reason.

Keithg813: What do you think of the Rangers’ offseason moves?

Well, there’s not much to go over here.  I get the logic behind signing Kaapo Kakko early for his qualifying offer to take some of the uncertainty out of the process but if I’m a prospective acquiring team, I’d have rather had the chance to at least discuss a longer-term agreement.  I’m not going to say it’s a bad contract – it’s not – but if you’re of the belief that they were looking to move him, I think it might have hurt their chances rather than helped.

Generally speaking, when a team exercises a workaround to someone’s trade protection as they did with the eventual waiving of Barclay Goodrow, I don’t like it.  These are the types of things that can hurt a franchise reputationally.  Having said that, this is the Rangers here, I think they can get away with it not hurting as much as it might another team.  Getting out of that contract without any incentivizing required was good for flexibility purposes.

Trading for Reilly Smith made sense from the standpoint that they didn’t want to commit a long-term deal to someone in free agency knowing that Alexis Lafreniere, Igor Shesterkin, and K’Andre Miller all need pricey extensions next summer.  The price isn’t great (I didn’t like them losing a second-rounder) but with how quickly names were coming off the board, it’s a defensible pivot for sure that helps now and keeps their flexibility for next summer when they’re really going to need it.

Beyond that, I like the bridge deal that they gave Braden Schneider so now they have enough flexibility to work out a long-term agreement with Ryan Lindgren in the coming days and still be cap-compliant heading into the season where they should be able to bank some in-season space as long as the injuries aren’t too problematic.

In a previous mailbag, my suggestion for the Rangers was not to make a bunch of big changes to the core but rather keep on their current path, keep some cap space open for in-season movements, and make additions closer to the trade deadline as they’ve done in recent years.  This is a capable veteran group that should be right in the thick of it next season.  I know some fans were hoping for a busier summer but being relatively quiet as they have been isn’t a bad outcome by any stretch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.