The Lightning have taken our No. 1-ranked UFA off the board. After acquiring his signing rights from the Hurricanes yesterday, they’ve locked in left winger Jake Guentzel on a seven-year, $63MM deal ($9MM cap hit), per a team announcement.
Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic has the full breakdown of the deal:
2024-25: $1MM base salary, $12.26MM signing bonus, no-move clause
2025-26: $1MM base salary, $8.95MM signing bonus, NMC
2026-27: $3.96MM base salary, $4MM signing bonus, NMC
2027-28: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, NMC
2028-29: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
2029-30: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
2030-31: $1MM base salary, $6.96MM signing bonus, 10-team trade list
While many had questioned Guentzel’s value after spending nearly all of his eight-year NHL career stapled to Sidney Crosby’s wing in Pittsburgh, a trade deadline deal to Carolina proved beyond a reasonable doubt that he’s a top-flight first-line talent in his own right. The 29-year-old has averaged more than a point per game over the last six seasons, totaling 189 goals, 221 assists and 410 points in 398 games since his breakout 40-goal campaign with the Penguins in 2018-19.
Carolina acquired Guentzel at the trade deadline, hoping to get him signed to an extension as he hurtled toward free agency, but it wasn’t in the cards. Guentzel’s initial ask was a reported eight-year, $64MM deal ($8MM AAV), something the Hurricanes weren’t willing to meet until too late in the process, LeBrun said last week. He was excellent down the stretch while alternating between Carolina’s top two forward lines, ending the year with eight goals and 17 assists for 25 points in 17 games with a +16 rating. Playing mostly alongside Sebastian Aho in the playoffs, Guentzel continued his reputation as a strong playoff performer with four goals and five assists in 11 contests.
A third-round pick of the Penguins in 2013, Guentzel played a key role in the second of the Penguins’ back-to-back Stanley Cup championships in 2017. He led the league in playoff goal-scoring as a rookie, lighting the lamp 13 times in 25 games – five of which were game-winners.
It’s clear that Lightning GM Julien BriseBois is banking on Guentzel being a more expensive yet more sustainable long-term replacement for Steven Stamkos. Their longtime captain is expected to find a new home on the open market today after failing to come to terms on an extension.
In Tampa, Guentzel could form one of the most terrifying top lines in the league alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Kucherov is coming off a 100-assist, 144-point campaign that won him the second Art Ross Trophy of his career, while Point has hovered around the 50-goal mark for the past two seasons.
The Lightning have $7.5MM in projected cap space remaining for 2024-25 after the Guentzel signing, per CapFriendly. They still have six open roster spots, including newly acquired RFA defenseman J.J. Moser.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Stamkos as good as gone, unless they are going to find someone else to dump…
TBL has $7.5m in cap space. Stamkos reportedly wanted $4 to $5m from TBL. They could still make a deal & have around $2.5 to $3.5m in cap space.
$2.5-$3.5M to fill six roster spots? And sign Moser? That’s just delusional
Stamkos is gone buddy
I think people are reading this wrong. Look above at the contract. This year’s contract for Guentzel is $13.26. That leaves like $3 M this year to fill out the Roster. If I’m reading this right this team is going to be filled with minimum salary hot garbage players.
I like Guentzel but would’ve rather used that money to resign Stamkos at the $5 M he was looking for and then 4 more $3-$4 M a year mid tier FA’s. Every team has a pretty good top line. It’s team’s with depth and 4 good lines that win the Cup.
Good catch, I didn’t even see that. If that’s true that’s hardly even enough to get Moser signed lol. Tampa may be regretting this all big time come March/April…
Actually, you’re reading it all wrong man. They have $7.5m in cap space from the $16.5m they had available. Guentzel’s AAV is $9m against the cap for the next 7 years no matter what.
You’re looking at the signing bonuses which is a way to somewhat manipulate the cap structure. No matter how it’s diced, it’s $9m every year based on the contractual salary structure towards the cap.
How he actually receives the amount of money yearly is entirely different. The contract is front loaded as he’s getting most of his total money in the early years of the contract. It’s basically like he’s getting advance pay instead of getting evenly year-by-year.
OK thanks for clearing it up. Other sports are different.
Getting Moser signed to an extension is key. I think Defensively he’s better than Serg right now. Great skater, stick work, playing the body, and high hockey IQ. His Offensive game isn’t where Serg’s is but he has the skills to get there. I know everyone is in love with Geekie but Moser is just as equal as a piece in that trade.
Exactly right Feelthe Thunder… also, while his salary is subject to state and local taxes when he plays on the road, his signing bonuses are not. Perfect example of the Florida tax advantage.
I sometimes hear folks try and counter the tax advantage argument by pointing out the “road taxes”. When you add in Carolina’s home games, even with the road tax, more than 90% is exempt from local income tax.
Oops… I put Carolina… I meant Tampa… but Carolina has the same advantage.
First off, it’s actually not 6 roster spots available. This article is going based off CapFriendly’s current roster structure for TBL. Guys like Lilliberg & such will be on the main roster more than likely which CapFriendly don’t have listed on the main roster at this time.
You say it’s delusional but no it’s not because high quality development offensive talents for TBL like Conor Geekie, Ethan Gauthier, Gage Goncalves & such all stand a significant chance to make the main roster. Moser’s contract isn’t going to break the bank on the cap by any means & will get signed. TBL actually has only 2 starting lineup spots to fill on the offense right now.
Okay man you have fun counting on Lilleberg for production and hoping and praying your prospects instantly break through in the NHL
Lilliberg will be the 7th D Man. He will play most of the year in Syracuse. Goncalves is the only one who has a shot to make the team this year. Geekie and Gauthier are earliest up for 25-26 Season maybe even 26-27 Season. Duke and a guy I’m high on, Huuhtanen, will be up before Geekie and Gauthier.
You see how an aging team like Tampa retools on the fly like this, then you look at the Pens (getting older & slower) and the Bruins (who still have yet to replace Bergeron/Krejci from last off-season) and it’s a nice case study in how a good front-office gets it done.
Guentzel signs for $9m which is less than what Point & Kucherov make in $9.5m. I’m just glad it’s not $10m like a few reports were suggesting as that would have been greatly overpaying but $9m is of decent value (if not slightly high). TBL now has by my estimations $7.5m to still work with in cap space. Curious to see how things play out today.
This is a very good signing for a 29 year old, very good player. At 34 Stammer will get something like this and that team will regret it in a few years. I am a Stammer fan but age must be respected and also the cap.
He took a million less than what Carolina offered? For a team that will need a rebuild in a few years?
From what I’ve read… it was a million dollars less… and a year less. It’s actually a million dollars more a year. Also, I don’t know that Carolina’s other terms – especially signing bonuses – were even close. Aho’s bonuses are limited to $2m a year and Svechnikov got $4m in year one and zero thereafter. The value of those extra millions – he gets $25m in the first two years – is huge. He gets to invest and grow that money, not Tom Dundon.
…also, those bonuses for Aho and Svech are zero dollars in excess of the AAV. They get nothing extra. Guentzel gets ~$7m extra.
As of right now, 13 teams have better odds to win the Cup next yr than do Tampa. Pump the brakes on them.
Why is this so bavkloaded with signing bonuses? Is this how Tampa is gonna cheat the cap this year ?
The cap hit is $9MM per year regardless how the signing bonuses are structured.
Signing bonuses are not taxed on the road and getting money early is a huge financial gain for the player and huge cost for the owner. I would not be the least bit surprised if Tampa got the player because Dundon was not going to spend “his” money.
“His” money means this… The AAV is what counts against the cap. Carolina spends money because they spend to the cap. The signing bonus money, however, can exceed the cap in any year, but the total dollars over the life of the contract have to equalize. By frontloading through bonuses, Dundon would be foregoing millions of dollars in investment earnings and transferring them to the player. Those dollars are out of his own pocket. When you look at Carolina’s contracts, it clear they don’t go for this. Not only are Aho and Svechnikov’s contract without large bonuses, they don’t exceed the AAV in even a single season. Not one extra penny in season one or two.
Tampa has shown repeatedly they will spend whatever it takes – even beyond the cap – to win. Dundon… not so much.
It doesn’t matter as what Tampa is doing is perfectly legal and any team can do it. Toronto hands out signing bonuses all the time. At the end of the day the cap hit every year is $9MM regardless of how the signing bonuses are structured.
So he’s a tax evader. Wow. Yet another reason to hate modern Tampa.
You may need to look up the difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance. One is a crime. The other is smart financial planning.
The tax part is actually the small potatoes.
The frontloaded signing bonuses (invested at a conservative 6%) are an additional $3m over the life of the contract and $15m over 20 years.
No one can say the market value for Guentzel isn’t right where he signed.
But man they will regret this in four years.