In an article today from Harman Dayal of The Athletic (Subscription Required), he analyzes the Vancouver Canucks competitive window with their current salary cap structure. The Canucks experienced a 26-point jump in the standings last season while winning the Pacific Division for the first time since the division was created ahead of the 2013-14 NHL season. Additionally, Vancouver qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs for the third time in 11 seasons before being ousted in Round Two by the eventual Western Conference Champions, the Edmonton Oilers.
The Canucks have high-priced players at the top of their salary cap table with $11.6MM and $8MM contracts for forwards Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, respectively. The organization has just over $15K available in salary cap space according to PuckPedia but has done a nice job in parsing out the rest of their roster. Vancouver arguably has two of the better bargain contracts in the league with defenseman Quinn Hughes ($7.85MM until 2026-27) and goaltender Thatcher Demko ($5MM until 2025-26).
Dayal argues that the Canucks are similar to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the late 2010s and the early 2020s as they captured two Stanley Cup Championships while paying Andrei Vasilevskiy, Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, Brayden Point, and Blake Coleman well-below market value. Because of this, Tampa Bay was able to fill out the rest of the roster and create one of the better dynasties in the league since the Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings.
The argument seems a little off-base as the Canucks core is a little bit further ahead in their contractual lives than the comparables from the Lightning. Tampa Bay does have the benefit of being in a no-tax state which keeps contracts lower on average but the players listed were not as far into their careers at that point. Once the chickens came home to roost, the Lightning have been bounced from Round One in back-to-back years and the organization has had to make tough decisions to stay salary cap compliant.
This is why Vancouver’s contention window largely comes down to the contracts of Hughes, Demko, and Brock Boeser. The latter becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season and could earn nearly $9MM if he comes close to repeating his 40-goal campaign from the 2023-24 season. Boeser’s shooting percentage (19.6%) throughout last year was more than seven points higher than his career average which points to regression next season. If Boeser comes back down to earth near the 20-30 goal range, his asking price should come down substantially.
Hughes and Demko will be much tougher to absorb for Vancouver especially if the former continues to play at a Norris Trophy-level pace. This year’s award winner finished with 92 points in 82 games and could be in line for a contract near the $12MM average on his next deal. Regardless of the salary cap projections over the next three years, this would be a pricey contract for any team let alone the Canucks.
Demko may provide an easier contract situation to resolve as his injury history continues to mount. He did play in 51 games for the Canucks this past season while maintaining a .918 save percentage but was absent from the team for much of this year’s playoff run. If Demko can stay healthy, this may cause a financial hurdle for Vancouver if he continues to post one of the better save percentages in the league compared to his peers.
All in all, Vancouver’s contention window is at least over the next two years with Demko and Hughes signed to team-friendly contracts. If general manager Patrik Allvin can continue to be crafty on the trade market like he was last season, the Canucks should be well poised to make a run soon. However, much like Tampa Bay’s recent history, Vancouver could be positioned to make some difficult decisions regarding their roster in only a few short years.
The simple answer to that question is for how long Demko is signed for.
Disagree. Here’s a hot take.
Goalies are unpredictable. An 8mil Demko hurts the team. So does a 7mil Boeser.
Boeser and Demko leave. That’s 15mil to younger and faster/less injury players to keep the window open. Already stars in the lineup.
My $0.02
I didn’t consider the Demko angle, but I agree about Boeser. It will be interesting to see if he signs for a discount, but definitely not worth $9m.
The goalie coach will have a big input into who they keep.
It was one year long.
First, big leap to think Boeser comes close to repeating; both his career averages & injury history suggests closer to $7.5m to resign him if they choose. Demko has similar durability questions. Both players are keys but the team under Allvin has at least positioned itself to pivot thanks to a deeper prospect pool. Not saying Lettermaki is immediate Boeser replacement but he has ability to push for top-6 spot by 2025-26, allowing for team to make other arrangements if Boeser isn’t resigned. Frankly I’d trade him now to maximize value but don’t see them doing that. I agree Harman’s overly optimistic tho. Team really needs Petey to get to the next level consistency wise.