The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Jets.
The Jets entered the season on a high note, knowing that franchise cornerstones Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele would be around long-term after signing matching seven-year, $59.5MM extensions. That excitement translated to their second-best season in franchise history, ending the season on an eight-game tear to match their record 52 wins set in the 2017-18 season.
However, they were the only team with home-ice advantage in the first round to lose their series, bowing out in five games to the Avalanche. With new head coach Scott Arniel in place after Rick Bowness announced his retirement, Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has some other big-ticket items to check off his list this summer to keep the Jets in contention.
Make A Call On Ehlers
28-year-old Dane Nikolaj Ehlers is heading into the final season of his $6MM AAV contract. After his worst regular-season offensive showing in five years and going without a goal in the playoffs, his trade (and extension) value is lower than in past summers.
That leaves Cheveldayoff in a pickle about whether to trade the longtime top-six fixture or work on keeping him in Winnipeg through his prime. Murat Ates of The Athletic reported last month that Cheveldayoff would at least explore moving the winger as the 2024 NHL Draft nears.
While his 2023-24 season may not have been up to his recent standards, by no means did Ehlers have a bad year. In fact, he’s routinely given the Jets great value for his $6MM cap hit over the life of his contract, which began back in 2018-19. Despite not seeing heavy power-play usage, keeping his average ice time under 16 minutes per game for a second straight season, he still managed 25 goals, 61 points and a +27 rating while playing in all 82 games.
His even-strength possession play has long been among the best on the Jets. He’s never had a season with a negative relative shot attempt share to his teammates, consistently tilting the ice in Winnipeg’s favor.
But for a team looking to be Stanley Cup contenders after a 110-point season, his poor playoff history is a rightful cause for concern. The 2014 ninth-overall pick has just four goals and 14 points in 37 postseason contests in Winnipeg with a -9 rating. None of those four goals came during this year’s first-round elimination.
As with any future UFA entering a contract year, the Jets have three options: trade him now, work on an extension when he’s eligible to sign one starting July 1 or play the waiting game. But his trade value won’t be as high in-season if they decide to move him as a rental – an acquiring team would certainly be willing to pay more for a full season of his services plus a longer window to discuss an extension.
Winnipeg has forward help coming in the form of recent first-round picks Colby Barlow and Rutger McGroarty, but not as soon as next season. Trading Ehlers leaves a major hole in their top nine as they attempt to reshape their roster, and it’s unlikely they’d be able to find a better value proposition to replace his role on the open market.
Re-Sign Monahan
One clear hole on the Jets’ depth chart is their second-line center. It’s unlikely that the organization trusts 22-year-old Cole Perfetti, who averaged fewer than 14 minutes per game last year and was a healthy scratch for most of their brief playoff run, to take over that role come opening night.
It was an issue last year, too, but the Jets addressed it weeks before the deadline by acquiring Sean Monahan from the Canadiens. Like many others, the 29-year-old struggled to produce in the playoffs, but he did end the regular season with 13 goals in 34 games for the Jets. Injuries have troubled him in the past, but he managed to stay healthy for all 83 games he was eligible to play in thanks to the trade and scored 59 points, his most in five years.
There aren’t many options on the open market considerably better than Monahan, especially for the money. Signing him in the next few weeks to keep him from becoming a UFA would likely result in a mid-term deal in the $5MM range annually.
That’ll likely be significantly cheaper than the top option on the market, Elias Lindholm, who’s coming off a steady decline in production over the past three seasons and scored fewer points per game than Monahan this year. Bringing Monahan back allows Arniel to keep deploying captain Adam Lowry in a comfortable third-line shutdown role, too, instead of forcing him to be more of a factor offensively.
Revamp Defense
Three defenders who logged significant time on the Winnipeg blue line last season – Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon and Colin Miller – are set to become UFAs next month. They may engage in more aggressive extension discussions with DeMelo and Miller, but reports last month indicated Dillon is unlikely to be back with the Jets.
If at all possible, the Jets should be taking the DeMelo negotiations down to the wire. He grew into a top-pairing role as a serviceable partner to Josh Morrissey this season, putting up 31 points in 82 games while logging 21:44 per night. His +46 rating is almost certainly inflated due to his quality of teammates (and the quality of his goaltender), but the Jets have still controlled 51.2% of expected goals with DeMelo on the ice since his acquisition from the Senators in 2020.
That still leaves more than a couple of spots up for grabs, though, especially considering 32-year-old Nate Schmidt and his $5.95MM cap hit appears to be a strong buyout candidate as he enters the final season of his deal. One of them will likely be earmarked for 2019 first-round pick Ville Heinola, who’s primed for more extended NHL minutes next season after three years of quality top-pairing play for their AHL affiliate. Outside of Morrissey, Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg also project to be regulars, with Logan Stanley in the mix as well, although the hulking 26-year-old was a healthy scratch for most of last season.
If they can’t extend DeMelo, that leaves a hole alongside Morrissey that will need to be filled either via free agency or via an Ehlers trade. Other than Pionk, they don’t have any other NHL-ready right-shot defenders, and he’s not suited for top-pairing duties. Brandon Montour, Brett Pesce and Matt Roy are the top right-shot options on the UFA market. Expect Cheveldayoff to engage with most, if not all of them, if they still have a vacancy along Morrissey come July 1.
Back-Up Hellebuyck
The Jets don’t need to worry much about “the other guy” when Hellebuyck is consistently throwing up save percentages north of .920 while starting 60-plus games, even as the league average for both dwindles. But Winnipeg has also been able to bank a few extra points in the standings each season thanks to strong play from Hellebuyck’s backups, which have been a rotating cast of Laurent Brossoit, Eric Comrie and David Rittich over the past few seasons.
Brossoit has done so with the most consistency lately, returning to the organization in free agency last summer after a brief stop (and a Stanley Cup win) in Vegas. He was excellent in his limited action this season, posting a 15-5-2 record with a .927 SV% in 22 starts and one relief appearance. He’s unlikely to return as he searches for a chance at more starts on the open market this summer, though.
Winnipeg doesn’t have any young internal options ready for promotion yet, so that means they’ll be hunting for Hellebuyck’s backup on the UFA market for the third summer in a row. Casey DeSmith, Kevin Lankinen and Scott Wedgewood are the best/most consistent options with experience that would likely settle for 20-25 starts next year.
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