The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Toronto.
An offseason of low-risk, short-term signings for new general manager Brad Treliving paid some dividends for Toronto. Unfortunately, a lack of impact adds at the trade deadline and injuries to star forwards Auston Matthews and William Nylander contributed to yet another first-round playoff loss to the Bruins. Now, a sharp increase in the salary cap is coming at the best possible time for the Leafs, who have a significant amount of roster and spending flexibility available for the first time in a while. It’s up to Treliving to not waste it.
Defense, Defense, Defense
Did we say defense? The Leafs only have three everyday defenders signed next season. Two of them, Simon Benoit and Jake McCabe, had competent showings in shutdown roles last season (especially the latter) but struggled to move the puck up the ice. The other, longtime fixture Morgan Rielly, remains a high-end offensive blue liner but has documented defensive weaknesses that make it increasingly difficult to justify playing him nearly 24 minutes per game.
Nearly all of their pending UFAs on defense, namely T.J. Brodie, aren’t expected to back. Their lone restricted free agent, Timothy Liljegren, is far from a sure bet either, and his signing rights could be used as trade bait this summer.
That leaves plenty of money and roster space for turnover, especially on the right side. All of Benoit, McCabe and Rielly are lefties, although McCabe is comfortable playing his off-side. In any event, Treliving is looking for at least two marquee right-shot blue liners on the open market that can comfortably shoulder top-four minutes.
Two options the Leafs have already been connected to as July 1 draws closer are Brett Pesce and Sean Walker. Both have historically been positive possession forces. While Pesce is coming off a down year offensively, the longtime Hurricane has a solid history of tossing up 20-plus assists per season. Walker was an absolute monster at getting the puck on net this year, though, managing 150 shots on goal (32nd among NHL defenders) despite averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game. Both are logical fits and upgrades over the rotating cast of Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Mark Giordano and Ilya Lyubushkin that was utilized down the stretch and in the postseason.
The Marner Conundrum
Despite producing over a point per game in six straight seasons, Marner immediately found himself in trade speculation after being limited to just one goal and two assists in seven playoff games. Like Matthews and Nylander, Marner likely wasn’t playing at 100 percent after sustaining a high ankle sprain in a regular-season game against the Bruins weeks earlier. But he’s entering the final season of his contract, is headed toward unrestricted free agency, and there’s little appetite to work on an extension on July 1 with another playoff disappointment fresh on everyone’s minds.
Reporting indicates the Leafs haven’t directly approached Marner about waiving his no-move clause, and the 27-year-old has made it clear he wants to stay in his hometown. They likely won’t do so until receiving a serious trade offer, and the likelihood of one of those coming through correlates directly with how aggressively Treliving shops him this summer, if at all.
The question for a Maple Leafs team in win-now mode is simple. Is the potential value of reallocating Marner’s $10.9MM cap hit next season greater than what he’ll give you on the ice? What he is is a consistent 100-point threat (if healthy) who averages over 21 minutes per game and finds himself consistently earning outside Selke Trophy consideration. Playoff disappointment aside, he’s a superstar.
It’s a tough question to answer, but one Treliving and his staff need to in short order.
Complement Woll
Perhaps the greatest certainty about the Leafs’ summer is that Ilya Samsonov will find a new home in unrestricted free agency. That leaves the up-and-coming Joseph Woll as the sole keeper of the crease for now, but they’ll need to find a solid complementary piece to give them better overall goaltending than last season’s roller-coaster ride.
Shelling out for a high-priced starter will be a controversial decision. Woll is still only 25, had a solid regular season and was excellent in brief playoff action this year before getting injured (.964 SV%, 0.86 GAA). He should likely be trusted for around 40 starts – which means the assets needed to acquire a Jacob Markström or Juuse Saros could wisely be repurposed elsewhere.
Unfortunately, the list of established true tandem options is incredibly small. They’ve been connected to Laurent Brossoit, who’s headed to UFA status next month. He’s had great numbers over the past two seasons, logging a .927 SV% through stops in Vegas and Winnipeg, but has never started more than 22 games in a season. He’s an upgrade on Samsonov over smaller stints, but questions will remain about how well he can handle an extended workload.
Find Cost-Effective Forward Depth
The Leafs had no problem putting the puck in the net last year, at least in the regular season. Their 303 goals were second in the league, influenced by a combined 109 snipes from Matthews and Nylander. But as it stands, no player projected in their bottom six next season had more than 0.5 points per game last year, a difficult stat to acquiesce for a team with championship aspirations.
One thing that would be a major boost is pushing shutdown pivot David Kämpf squarely into a fourth-line role. It’s not the most attractive option for a player with a $2.4MM cap hit, but averaging north of 13 minutes per game isn’t feasible for a player who provides as little offense as he does. He’s certainly a capable fourth-line defensive center on a Cup winner, but right now, they’re asking too much. Thus, at least one middle-six option is needed to help create a domino effect and spread out some scoring depth, plus a few more if they do indeed move on from Marner.
A spot can hopefully be filled by either Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten, their two top forward prospects, the former of whom is coming off an electric OHL postseason performance that earned him playoff MVP honors. After 96 points in 54 regular-season games and 34 points in 18 playoff games, Cowan is a solid bet for at least a nine-game trial out of the gate, but they need insurance options in the semi-likely event neither is ready to be an everyday top-nine force.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Leafs need to figure out the Marner mess immediately. They can’t have a true plan with over 10M in unknown expenditure.
For all the talk of their mediocre defense and goaltending, it has been a lack of depth scoring that has doomed them in the playoffs the last few seasons.
Sign Demelo, Joshua, Zadorov, Trenin, Carrick, Stephenson. Trade Lil, kampf, Jarnkrok, and let the UFAs walk. Maybe Domi if he’s good with a 2 year deal at $3.5 per. Trade Robertson. Trade Marner. Do not trade for Markstrom or Saros. One is old and up/down the other will want a 8yr @ $7 mill per after next season. At minimum. Sign Lindholm if he’ll take 6yrs at $7.2 per.
Next year let Tavares walk. There are other UFAs they can target with the savings, namely Konecny.
The writing is on the wall for Marner. He realizes he likely isn’t getting an extension from Toronto. Gut feeling is he’ll waive his NMC if the right team comes calling this summer.
Give me two of DeMelo/Tanev/Zadorov, one of Duchene/Monahan, and one of Trenin/Henrique. Move some money out and make it happen.