Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators

The offseason has arrived for all but the two teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  For the rest, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Nashville.

It looked like Nashville was pivoting to a rebuild with the moves they made last summer but instead, it wound up being more of the same even with some core pieces gone and other new core players in place.  The Preds went on a major hot streak in the second half of the season, recording at least a point in a franchise-record 18 straight games which helped secure them a Wild Card spot.  However, they weren’t able to muster up much offense in the playoffs, resulting in a first-round elimination.  Now, assuming they’re not looking to rebuild now, GM Barry Trotz will have several objectives to try to accomplish this summer.

Replace McDonagh

Trotz made one notable move this offseason, sending Ryan McDonagh back to Tampa Bay, fulfilling a request from the blueliner.  In doing so, he took one of their more notable defenders out of their lineup.  While they offloaded his full $6.75MM cap hit and got a second-rounder, they didn’t get anything back that could help the current roster while creating a big hole to fill.

This past season, McDonagh was second on the team in ice time behind only Roman Josi.  He was also second in points by a blueliner and blocked shots while leading all Nashville players in shorthanded ice time.  Suffice it to say, they need to find an impactful replacement.

Brandon Montour is the only pending unrestricted free agent who averaged more than McDonagh’s 21:47 per game in 2023-24.  Having said that, veterans like Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce can also fill that void.  Chris Tanev would be a shorter-term addition to cover some hard defensive minutes while Matt Roy could be more of an under-the-radar fit.  Alternatively, they could look to the trade market.

With Alexandre Carrier and Tyson Barrie also set to hit the open market next month, the Preds will also have some work to do in terms of adding some depth.  But on top of that, they’re going to need to find a top-three defender if they want to hang around the playoff picture.

Decide Saros’ Future

This time a year ago, there was speculation that the Predators were open to moving Yaroslav Askarov with an eye on making a splash either at the draft or to upgrade their roster.  Clearly, that never materialized and the young netminder had a strong season with AHL Milwaukee and remains their goaltender of the future.

How close the future is remains to be seen, however.  Veteran goaltender Juuse Saros is set to enter the final year of his contract next season, one that carries a below-market $5MM AAV.  The 29-year-old’s numbers for the year weren’t spectacular but he was much better in the second half of the year and had a strong showing in the playoffs.  That has him well-positioned to earn a considerable raise on his next deal.  On the surface, he could make a case for a contract similar to the seven-year, $59.5MM pact ($8.5MM AAV) that Connor Hellebuyck signed with Winnipeg last season.

With Askarov in the picture, is it advisable for them to commit that type of deal to Saros?  If they feel they should do that, then it’s possible that Askarov could be in play once again.  On the flip side, if Trotz feels that it’s not worth paying that type of contract, then the decision becomes about trading him now or keeping him into next season and re-assessing closer to the trade deadline.

If they look to move him in the coming weeks, it might be tough to elicit top value with Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark (among others) believed to be available as well.  While that means there could be more demand for starting goalies, the higher supply could lower the offers coming Nashville’s way.  Generally speaking, teams typically get better returns if they move a goalie in the offseason but it’s certainly possible that this isn’t the case this year with the other netminders in play.

On the surface, this could be Nashville’s biggest decision of the summer.  Is it time to hand the reins to Askarov?  They’ll have to determine the answer to this question probably within the next few weeks.

Add Scoring Depth

Under Andrew Brunette, the Predators went from 27th in goals scored in 2022-23 to 10th this season, gaining 40 extra goals in the process.  However, they struggled considerably in that department in their opening-round loss to Vancouver, scoring just a dozen times in six games even with the Canucks playing most of that series without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko.

To that in, despite their improvement in the regular season, Trotz told Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s looking to add up front, particularly in their top nine so they’re not as reliant on the top line as they were at times.  Before looking at the external options, they will need to consider some internal ones, however.

Youngsters Juuso Parssinen, Philip Tomasino, and Egor Afanasyev all spent time in the minors this season (the latter almost the entire year) but are all now waiver-eligible moving forward.  Parssinen and Tomasino have had some success in Nashville at times but haven’t been the most consistent so far.  Trotz will need to identify which ones are in the plans for 2024-25 and if any aren’t, this might be the time to try to move them before running the risk of having to sneak them through waivers.  But one (or more) of them establishing themselves as regulars next season should help their offensive depth at a minimum.

As for free agent options, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take a run at re-signing Jason Zucker who fit in pretty well after being acquired at the trade deadline.  Beyond that, since their focus seems to be on improving their depth, they’re probably not going to be targeting the top end of the UFA class.  But veterans like Tyler Toffoli and Vladimir Tarasenko could appeal as multi-year veteran options while Jake DeBrusk and Teuvo Teravainen could be longer-term fits.  With $26MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they will have room to add a forward or two even after addressing their defensive situation.

Improve Penalty Kill

During the regular season, Nashville’s penalty was a trouble spot.  Their success rate dropped to just 76.9%, good for 22nd in the league.  For comparison, they were at 82.6% in 2022-23, good for a three-way tie for fourth in the NHL in that regard.  The slippage shorthanded likely played a role in their decision to let assistant coach Dan Hinote go late last month as one of his responsibilities was running the penalty kill.

For starters, they’ll need to find a replacement for Hinote behind the bench who will likely take on his old role.  That’s something they’d probably like to have in place before free agency opens up next month.

It wouldn’t be surprising if penalty killing acumen will be among the priorities that Nashville uses to round out their back end to replace Carrier (assuming he doesn’t re-sign) and Barrie.  There are plenty of depth defensemen available on the open market, several of which can handle heavy penalty killing roles while the lower-end blueliners are typically easier to get on the trade market.  They should be able to address this in the coming weeks.

Things get a little harder when it comes to their forwards.  They already have ten returning forwards, not including the three now-waiver-eligible ones mentioned earlier.  If they bring Zucker back and/or add another offensive forward, that fills one hold but probably doesn’t address the penalty killing element unless they’re bringing in a notable two-way player.  It might require shaking up the fourth line that was quietly effective or moving out someone already there to open up a roster spot to bring in more of a penalty killing specialist to help get this unit back on track.  It’s not a must-fix priority but it’s one that Trotz will likely try to address nonetheless.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.