LeBrun’s Latest: Guentzel, Skjei, Stamkos, Kane, Marchessault, Askarov

The 2024 NHL Draft is mere hours away, but this year’s compressed schedule means we also only have three days until the opening of the UFA market. That means for most of the usual insiders, there’s a lot of reporting tidbits coming out on the fly. That was the case today for Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic, who has more than a few notable updates about some of the top pending UFAs and some ripple effects of this week’s moves:

• While things have seemingly been trending in the wrong direction between the Hurricanes and trade deadline pickup Jake Guentzel for weeks, LeBrun writes the Hurricanes have upped their offer in a last-minute bid to retain his services. Their last pitch comes in at around $64MM total on an eight-year deal, working out to an $8MM cap hit. That’s close to what Guentzel’s camp was asking for at the beginning of negotiations with Carolina, LeBrun writes, but with his name still available this close to going to market, there are likely other teams willing to offer more annually. It is worth pointing out that the Hurricanes still hold an advantage by having the ability to offer him an eighth year of term, allowing them to sign him for the same amount of total cash for a slightly lower cap hit. A seven-year, $9MM AAV deal that he’s rumored to be able to land on the open market would leave him $1MM short of the total compensation he’d get from Carolina.
• There’s still “a chance for Carolina” to retain defenseman Brady Skjei, who checks in as the top left-shot option available should he remain unsigned come Monday. But it still appears unlikely at this stage, especially considering he could command in the $7MM AAV range on the open market. LeBrun expects the Predators to be one of the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Skjei should he not ink a new deal with the Canes.
• Following up on a statement from Steven Stamkos’ agent earlier today that the longtime Lightning captain projects to hit the open market, LeBrun said Tampa GM Julien BriseBois is trying to make his tight cap situation work by offering Stamkos a low-AAV deal at the maximum eight-year term. He speculates they’ve offered him a deal with a $3MM cap hit, working out to a total value of $24MM. On a four-year deal, something the 34-year-old is much more likely to land on the open market, that would be twice the cost against the cap ($6MM annually). It’s something BriseBois has tried and failed to do before, with LeBrun confirming that was his strategy to attempt to keep winger Alex Killorn from departing in free agency last year. He ended up rejecting an eight-year, $20MM deal ($2.5MM cap hit) from Tampa to sign a four-year, $25MM deal ($6.25MM AAV) with the Ducks.
• If Patrick Kane moves on from the Red Wings next week, don’t expect him to travel very far. LeBrun reports the future Hall-of-Famer’s preference is to stick in the Eastern Conference as he signs what could be the final contract of his career.
• The Golden Knights remain hard at work trying to retain 2023 Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault, but they’re not on the verge of an extension, his agent Pat Brisson told LeBrun. Vegas has around $6.2MM in projected cap space with Robin Lehner on long-term injured reserve, which they’d likely use all of on a Marchessault extension. More moves are needed for financial flexibility, and LeBrun reports Marchessault is “readying himself for the realistic possibility that he might have to move on.“
• Lastly, Predators top goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov is all but officially on the trade block with yesterday’s report that Juuse Saros is nearing an eight-year extension to stay in Smashville. There’s still a strong chance Askarov remains with Nashville last season and enters his first full-time NHL campaign as Saros’ backup, but LeBrun reports the Preds are leveraging him to try and move into the top five of tonight’s draft. It’s not the first time they’ve done this – we wrote the exact same piece last year about the Preds trying to send him to the Canadiens to acquire the fifth-overall pick. Montreal holds the same selection this year.