The Maple Leafs haven’t yet given any indication of whether they’ll ask winger Mitch Marner to waive his no-move clause after another first-round playoff exit. However, that hasn’t stopped the Predators from indicating they’d be one of the teams calling if he hits the trade market, per David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.
It would be quite a swing from Nashville general manager Barry Trotz as he enters his second offseason at the helm. The longtime coach knocked it out of the park in free agency last summer, landing first-line forwards Gustav Nyquist and Ryan O’Reilly for less than $5MM per season on two-year and four-year deals, respectively. Replacing John Hynes with Andrew Brunette behind the bench also worked out quite well – the latter is a Jack Adams Award finalist this year after guiding the Preds to a 99-point season, their most in five years.
Pagnotta recently posited a Marner for Juuse Saros swap with both star players entering the final season of their contracts, but it’s unclear whether Toronto has shown any interest in the 2022 Vezina Trophy finalist. Without any real indication that Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving is even looking to move on from Marner, it’s impossible to tell for certain what he’d desire in return for his star playmaker.
The Leafs and Preds have been infrequent trade partners, only swapping minor-league or depth players a handful of times over the past few years. Their last major swap came near the 2015 trade deadline, with Toronto sending Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville in exchange for Olli Jokinen, Brendan Leipsic and a 2015 first-round pick. The Leafs ended up trading down from that pick, 24th overall, which the Flyers happily used to select Travis Konecny. Then-co-interim GMs Kyle Dubas and Mark Hunter didn’t select any impact NHLers with the picks they acquired, although they did swap one of the picks acquired from Philly for a second-round choice they used to select serviceable defenseman, Travis Dermott.
Marner’s prospective trade value will be influenced by two factors: how many teams he’s willing to waive his no-move clause for (if at all) and if his camp is given permission to work on an extension with the acquiring club. He carries a $10.9MM cap hit next season as he enters the final year of the six-year, $65.4MM deal he signed weeks before the 2019-20 season got underway. Evolving Hockey projects Marner to land an eight-year extension with an $11.7MM cap hit should he sign soon after becoming eligible on July 1.
Toronto would be losing its most dynamic playmaker and one of its better penalty-killers should they move on from Marner, but they would free up considerable cap space to address their lack of puck-moving defensemen and inconsistency in goal. Any roster player they acquire in exchange for Marner is likely to cost a few million dollars less, allowing them to be more aggressive players on this summer’s free-agent market if they make a decision on trading him before the draft.
The Predators, meanwhile, would gain arguably the best player to suit up for them in franchise history outside of two years’ worth of past-his-prime Paul Kariya and 17 games’ worth of Peter Forsberg. Outside of their top line of O’Reilly, Nyquist and Filip Forsberg, center Thomas Novak was the only other Nashville forward to produce over half a point per game. Their top offensive threats are quickly aging, too, with O’Reilly and Nyquist well into their 30s. In a couple of years, a still sub-30 Marner could lead an incredibly deep core of wingers supplemented by Forsberg and top prospects Joakim Kemell and Matthew Wood.
So if/when Marner is “the man” on a new NHL team, do his stats improve or decline? I genuinely wonder what happens when he no longer has the all-star offensive cast around him.
@fightcitymayor — One of the most recent examples was Calgary’s Perfection Line. Walt Jr. #1, aka Matt Tkachuk, has pretty much thrived in South FLA. Elias Lindholm is adept at 10G climbs to greatness, then undoing that for a 10G nosedive to get back in Tocc’s doghouse. Right now, he’s standing it on its tail and going vertical as an Oilers killer. Johnny seems to be miserable in Columbus. I thought Jake would be lost without Sid, going to CAR. He looks like he belongs, though. If Marner moves, it seems like he might be another Goldilocks type, similar to PLD.
Marner, O’Reily, Forsberg, OH MY!
The Predators, meanwhile, would gain arguably the best player to suit up for them in franchise history
Prime Shea Weber, Roman Josi or Pekka Rinne would take offense to that statement. Potentially top Forward though.
Trying to tell what direction Trotz is going in is basically impossible at this point. :/
@Gbear — GMBT may be driving one of Ralph Nader’s old Corvairs. Now, he is “unsafe at any speed!” :)
“Their last major swap came near the 2015 trade deadline, with Toronto sending Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville in exchange for Olli Jokinen, Brendan Leipsic and a 2015 first-round pick. The Leafs ended up trading down from that pick, 24th overall, which the Flyers happily used to select Travis Konecny. Then-co-interim GMs Kyle Dubas and Mark Hunter didn’t select any impact NHLers with the picks they acquired, although they did swap one of the picks acquired from Philly for a second-round choice they used to select serviceable defenseman, Travis Dermott.”
This has the same energy as winning $50 on a scratch ticket, then buying $50 worth of scratch tickets, and gradually reducing the winnings til you’re at 0. Gosh dang is this team ever a farce sometimes…
I guess the Preds saw how well Johnny Gaudreau has done in Columbus and want to get in on that action.
They all but certainly get a better offer, but just in case they don’t, Dubas should at least call Treliving and offer Rickard Rakell and Erik Karlsson with half of Karlsson’s salary retained, which would make each of them $5 M per AAV.
Leafs get more size and grit up front to shuffle their mix and Karlsson to be the RHD they’ve needed forever. Also pocket about $1 in cap space while filling two roster spots instead of two.
Pens use Marner with DOC on Sid’s line which allows Rust to play with Geno and Bunting.
Karlsson is not the rhd the leafs need. they have had enough issues with “defence” from their defencemen.
Add Fabbro and Robertson to the deal & call it done!
Im a habs fan but to me the choice always came down to JT or Nylander. The past 2 seasons wille showed it can be a great scorer and JT is just as expensive as anyone else but is much much older. They need to find a way to get JT to agree to leave