PHR Mailbag: Unrestricted Free Agency, Predators, Saros, Flyers, Top Pick, International Leagues

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the year that was for Nashville, what the Flyers could look to do this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our past two mailbag columns.

SkidRowe: Given this year’s group of UFAs, who would you sign if you only have $11MM to spend and you need a top-six forward and a left shot defenseman?

This is a question that can have a lot of different answers based on team needs.  Is there a need for an impactful top-four left-shot blueliner which could cost half of that amount or more or do they only need a depth piece, freeing up more money for the forward?  Does that team need a center more than a winger?  As a result, I could come up with a lot of viable answers depending on those needs.  But let’s focus on a couple of scenarios.

If my team has a couple of top-four left-shot options already and I’m looking to go a bit cheaper on the blueline and spend more up front, I’m targeting Oliver Kylington.  He had 31 points in 2021-22, his last full NHL season.  He was more limited this year after returning so a cut from his $2.5MM is certainly possible, especially if it’s a short-term deal.  At 27 (as of today) and with his last full season being a good one, I think he’s going to be one of the better low-cost upside plays, giving me lots of room to spend on the forward.  Failing that, if that team wants some extra firepower, I’d kick the tires on Erik Gustafsson, a player who produces some points but causes enough goals the other way to keep his price tag low.

What’s left after signing Kylington should be enough to shop towards the upper tier of the market.  We’re not in Sam Reinhart territory but if Kylington comes in around $2MM, that should be enough for Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos should he not come to terms with Tampa Bay.  The back end of Guentzel’s deal might be iffy – long-term agreements like that often are – but it’d be hard to pass up a shot at an impact scorer.

Now, if the team needs a top-four guy, things change.  It’s not a great market for impactful left-shot blueliners.  There’s Brady Skjei and well, that’s about it.  Shayne Gostisbehere scores enough to be a top-four guy but if you’re looking for a 20-minute-plus minutes-eater, he’s not that player.  Among lefties, only Skjei is.  That will push his price tag past the $6MM mark, potentially closer to $7MM if there winds up being a big market for his services.

That means I don’t have much left up front so I need to get creative and shoot for some upside.  Chandler Stephenson could be nice but it’s iffy that there’s enough left for him.  What does the medical testing about Patrick Kane say?  If the team doctors say he’s likely to hold up, would a multi-year deal for what’s left represent enough of a commitment?  Would a one-year deal for what’s left with some incentives (which can be applied if needed on the 2025-26 books) do it?  Sean Monahan might also fit in this price range as some teams will be scared off with his injury history.  If I need to pay up to get Skjei, I might need to get creative to try to get an impact top-six forward as well.

GBear: What was the point of the Preds 2023/24 season? They’ll once again pick outside the top 20 in the draft and got booted in the first round of the playoffs again, being led mostly by veteran-age players. Aren’t they just doing what they always have in the past despite saying they didn’t want to be in the mushy middle any longer?

It’s definitely a fair question to ask.  I’ll be honest, I didn’t see Nashville as a playoff team heading into the season.  I thought this was going to be a culture-setting season with a new front office, a new coach, and new leaders.  They’d set the tone and foundation to move forward from and if they made the playoffs, that was just an added bonus.  I wouldn’t be shocked if management sees it this way as well.

But you’re absolutely right in saying that they basically wound up where they’d been before when all is said and done.  They’re not really closer to necessarily contending, nor are they going to be able to bring in a top prospect based on where they’re drafting.  Framed that way, yeah, it was a bit of a ‘tires spinning in the mud’ type of year.

If you’re looking for a positive takeaway from this season, it might be this – the floor of the roster is better than most anticipated.  Nashville has ample cap space this summer to go out and try to add a couple of impact players.  If they hand the starting job to Yaroslav Askarov and move Juuse Saros (more on that idea shortly), they might even have enough for a third impact piece.  Add that to the floor this group showed and that could be enough to create a group that could have some damage although being in a division with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t help things.

tigers22 2: What package of picks and players would the Red Wings need to give up to get Saros?

There are some teams where acquiring and extending Saros makes a lot of sense.  I’m not sure Detroit is one of them.  Sebastian Cossa is viewed as their goalie of the future and there’s little reason to assume they’re starting to second-guess that.  He’s a couple of years away but that’s perfectly fine for a 21-year-old.  But if he’s their guy moving forward, extending Saros on a long-term deal at a cap hit over $8MM is going to block Cossa.  And as their young core group gets more expensive (Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are up for pricey deals this summer), if they can avoid another pricey long-term pact, it’ll give them more flexibility moving forward.

However, adding Saros as a rental player for next season does make some sense for them.  Detroit is at the point where they need to start getting their core group some playoff experience.  We think back to the long playoff streak they had but they haven’t made it once since then; they’ve missed eight years in a row.  Something has to give sooner than later and GM Steve Yzerman knows it.  With goaltending being a big issue, perhaps getting Saros in to shore that up would be enough to get them back into the postseason.  From there, then they can get a better sense of what they’re going to need moving forward.  Even as a short-term addition, I think that’s worthwhile.

As for the cost, the Preds were believed to have a very high asking price to move him at the trade deadline.  With the other goalies that could be in play, I think they’re going to have to lower that.  And if Detroit doesn’t want to sign Saros to an extension as part of the deal, that should lower the price tag as well.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way and say that Ville Husso ($4.5MM for next season) needs to go the other way to match money.  I could see Nashville being more interested in players than picks, however.  I could see Michael Rasmussen being someone they ask for, a middle-six forward with some control.  I also think they’d ask for a young blueliner although if they were to get Rasmussen, they wouldn’t be able to ask for a top youngster.  But William Wallinder, an early second-round pick back in 2020, might be someone they want.  He’s still a year or two away but that’s better than a junior-aged prospect or draft pick that’d even be farther away.

If Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, and even John Gibson are all on the block this summer, it’s going to make it hard for the Preds to get a first-round pick and another key piece or two.  A package like this, one that gives them some pieces that would help now (especially if Husso can get back to the level he was with St. Louis) and down the road, might be enough to get Saros as a pure rental.  But if several teams want to acquire and extend him, the asking price might get out of Detroit’s range.

Emoney123: With Fedotov and Ersson set in goal, what happens to Hart [RFA]? Who should the Flyers add with Michkov to mentor/develop into a scorer and playoff team?

With Carter Hart being a restricted free agent, the Flyers would have to issue him a $4.479MM qualifying offer to retain his rights.  He’s a year away from UFA eligibility which is particularly noteworthy considering it doesn’t sound like the court case will be held anytime soon.  Even if the offer was issued to retain his rights, chances are he’d be an unrestricted free agent by the time he potentially becomes eligible to play again depending on how the case plays out.  With that in mind, there’s no real benefit to tendering him so chances are he’ll go unqualified next month.

I touched on this a bit in Friday’s mailbag but are the Flyers at the point where they can say the rebuild is over and it’s time to add pieces to get into the playoffs?  This is a team that went into last year with a roster that looked nowhere near playoff-caliber and then, while in a playoff spot, sold.  After collapsing down the stretch, is that going to be the trigger point to say it’s time to go for it?  I don’t think so; they’re not there yet even with how the season went.  So I’m not sure they’re going to be too active in terms of trying to add pieces to become a playoff team.

If they can get Matvei Michkov over early (and it looks like this could happen), the idea of a mentor makes some sense in theory but I have to admit, finding the right fit is harder than I thought.  I don’t think the Flyers are going to be shopping at the top end of the free agent pool which takes some of the more prominent names off the table.

Vladimir Tarasenko stands out as a fit among the secondary pieces, however.  As an offensive player, he had to become a better defensive player in recent years which should help under a coach like John Tortorella.  Meanwhile, the Senators liked his off-ice value in a younger room before moving him at the trade deadline so he could have that same type of benefit for his fellow countryman.  After free agency didn’t go well last time around, a multi-year commitment at a small raise from the $5MM he made this year might get it done which is a price tag they can afford by going into LTIR.  I’d go with him as a veteran to try to add to work with Michkov.

Unclemike1526: Any chance the Hawks can move from 2 to 1? Thanks.

San Jose has already made it clear that they intend to take Macklin Celebrini, someone who they quite likely view as a foundational piece.  More importantly, he’s a foundational center, allowing them to have a strong future one-two punch with him and Will Smith down the middle.  Given how hard it is to find a middleman with that type of value, that makes it a lot harder for the Sharks to move that pick.  They’d want a foundational center in return.  The Blackhawks have one but it’s safe to say they’re not moving him.

Chicago can make a compelling offer to San Jose, certainly more compelling than probably any other team can.  If they offered up the second pick and, say, Frank Nazar, that’s a pretty solid offer.  But I don’t see Sharks GM Mike Grier biting at it and it won’t be a matter of adding extra lesser pieces to make the difference.  When you have a chance to get a franchise fixture down the middle, it’s almost impossible to pass up.

PyramidHeadcrab: It’s generally suggested that the KHL is the second-best professional hockey league in the world, but how competitive would a complete KHL team be if they were to compete in the NHL?

Additionally: How do the major European leagues (KHL, SHL, Liiga, German Elite League, etc.) compare to the North American pro game? Are they more on par with the AHL? ECHL?

And if we really wanna get spicy… What level would pro leagues in countries like Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom be comparable to?

While the reputation of the KHL has been that it’s the second-best league, I don’t think that’s the case anymore as there has been a drop-off in talent in recent years.  To answer your first question, I don’t think the typical KHL team would have much success at all in the NHL.  Even if you look at the roster and stats of the reigning champions Metallurg Magnitogorsk, I don’t see that franchise giving many teams a run for their money most nights.  They’d win some games, sure, but they’d probably be a strong candidate for the top spot in the draft lottery.

I’d have the SHL as the second-best league out there now by a narrow margin.  But again, those teams wouldn’t put up much of a fight against a typical NHL squad.  Now, against an average AHL squad, now we’re talking.  Teams from that league, or the KHL, or even Liiga I think would hold their own.  Maybe some Swiss teams as well as that league has picked up in terms of competitiveness lately.  Meanwhile, for the DEL and ICEHL (Germany and Austria), they’re not quite at that level so I suppose they’d be closer to the ECHL and even that might be a little generous.

As a random aside, back in 2013, AHL Rochester was invited to participate in the Spengler Cup, an international tournament featuring some club teams from various leagues.  The Amerks didn’t fare well (going 0-3) in that event and an AHL squad hasn’t been invited back since.  Having said that, they certainly weren’t at their best due to injuries and recalls but that’s about the only semi-recent basis for comparison that I can think of.

As for the lower-level leagues, I’m not even sure I could come up with a guess.  I can’t sit here and say I’ve seen enough (or anything) from some of those levels to even attempt to come up with a reasonable comparison.  Your guess would be as good as mine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.