PHR Mailbag: Playoffs, Bruins, Jets, Devils, Draft

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some discussion about the playoffs, what New Jersey’s big-game hunting could look like in the coming weeks, and much more.  With all the questions submitted, we’ll break it into three columns between now and next weekend so if yours doesn’t appear here, check back in one of those pieces.

schwa: Few questions here:

What was the biggest surprise to you in the first round?
What’s your favorite matchup for the second?
What potential matchup excites you most for CFs / SCF?

There weren’t a lot of surprises for me in the first round but Winnipeg flaming out would be the biggest.  While I had concerns that their core group – one that has been more miss than hit in the postseason – could sustain a long run, I thought they really had a chance to get past Colorado, especially with Alexandar Georgiev struggling mightily down the stretch.  But the Avs picked them apart and made it look easy which is hard to do to a team that put up 110 points in the regular season.  While I had the Jets winning, the fact the Avalanche did isn’t the biggest surprise.  But how they did it was something I wasn’t expecting.

Going into the round, it was Colorado and Dallas and that hasn’t changed.  The Stars are one of the most balanced teams in the league but had the toughest first-round battle.  They can match the Avalanche talent-wise but are they going to wear down as this series went on with how hard the Vegas matchup was?  These are two of the top teams in the NHL but that question is going to linger for me.

For Conference Final matchups, I think Edmonton and Colorado would be intriguing just for the potential for some back-and-forth, high-octane hockey that we don’t typically see that deep into the playoffs.  In the East, it looks like the Rangers are coming out of the Metropolitan and if I’m picking for what might be the more interesting series from a watching perspective, it’d be Florida.  Then, for the Cup Final, the Avs and Rangers.  If I was predicting what was going to happen, that’s probably not where I’d go but those would be some compelling series.

Nha Trang: Will the numerous pundits who predicted that the Bruins were going to go down in the biggest first-round upset enjoy the crow they’re being served, or will they collectively pretend they never made such a prediction and hope people have forgotten?

While we didn’t publish our picks, I’ll be up front and say I had Toronto winning that series.  It wasn’t my biggest upset prediction (Nashville over Vancouver which also didn’t pan out was) but I thought the Maple Leafs would be able to score enough to get through this round and then fall to Florida again.  Frankly, it was a close enough series on paper heading in that I don’t think many would have had that as their biggest upset.

As to your question, I’m sure some will try to pretend they didn’t pick it but that’s the beauty of internet archiving; anyone who posted their picks has those picks saved somewhere.  But collectively, no, I don’t think there would have been any group effort to deny the existence of those selections.

Besides, it’s not as if the Bruins ran away with that series.  It took seven games and three attempts to clinch it with the winning goal coming in overtime.  It was a pretty tightly played series overall so if you’re hoping to see some ‘I was wrong about the Bruins’ comments, they might have to get a little deeper into the postseason and win a bit more convincingly.

Cla23: Do you see Sean Monahan signing long-term with the Jets?

Do you see coach Bowness sign an extension or will he choose to retire and spend his time with his beautiful wife? After the scary year they had on a personal/health level.

If he retires, is it Scott Arniel’s time to be head coach?

When it comes to Monahan, a lot of it is going to revolve around what he’s looking for.  Is he looking to go to a contender?  Is he looking to maximize money?  Will the term of the contract be the top priority?  If he wants a longer-term deal, I think Winnipeg would have a very good chance at keeping him.  Monahan had a strong start to the year with Montreal and fit in quite well following the trade.  He fits on that roster as it’s currently constructed and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be more inclined to offer up a longer-term agreement (despite his injury history) knowing it isn’t always easy attracting talent to Winnipeg.  If Monahan gets the term and at least close to the money he’s looking for, I could see him sticking around.

That said, if he wants to go try to play for a contender and is willing to take another short-term deal at a lesser rate to make that happen, then that probably pushes Winnipeg out of things.  We’ll see what his top priority will be for his next contract soon enough.

Obviously, we now know the answer to the Bowness question as he announced his retirement soon after this question was posed.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise to me for the reasons you noted in the question; this was the logical and expected outcome.

As for Arniel, the question I ask myself is this – is he getting any attention for the other vacancies around the league?  While teams don’t exactly divulge this information, it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.  So if Arniel isn’t garnering head coaching attention elsewhere, should he really be up for the top job with the Jets?  I think he’s a safe short-term pick and might be the favorite to land the role but all else being equal, he wouldn’t be my first choice, especially for a team that’s built to try to win now.  I’d be looking for a veteran who might have a shorter shelf life but a proven track record of getting quick results.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Devils said they are going “big-game hunting” this offseason.
Let’s apply this to both the coach and 1A goalie.
Who do they get? Realistically.

Is there a big-game type of coach out there?  Of the coaches that are currently available, is there a true headliner?  In terms of experience and success, it’s probably Joel Quenneville who may or may not be eligible to coach again.  Todd McLellan and Gerard Gallant qualify more as retreads at this point than big-name guys.  Craig Berube would be next but I could see him landing in Toronto.

If I was picking their next coach, I’d swing for upside.  As a result, I’d go right off the board for the coach (when it comes to who has been linked for the position) and pick Jay Leach as their new bench boss.  He’s paid his dues as an assistant and head coach in the minors and now three years as an assistant in Seattle.  He finished up his playing career in New Jersey’s organization as well so there’s a bit of familiarity with the market which helps.  In terms of ‘upside’ for a coach, he’d be near the top of the list so if they take a big swing, maybe it’s for upside over experience.  Having said that, you asked who I think they’ll get, not who I’d pick so for who I think they get, I’ll go with Jay Woodcroft, someone who might still have a perception as a coach with a bit of upside given that he’s still early on in his coaching career.

As for the goalie situation, I think they wind up with Jacob Markstrom.  It sounded like some of the money-related hurdles had been cleared closer to the deadline so if they rekindle talks at that point, they should be able to get something done.  Calgary’s asking price will probably have to come down given the other netminders that many expect to be available and that will help bridge the gap that existed when talks broke down in March.

Emoney123: Now that it’s been determined where the Flyers draft, will Sam Dickinson or Berkly Catton fall enough for them to take at 12?

I have a hard time thinking that Dickinson will slide that far.  Yes, it’s, a D-heavy top end of the draft so it’s possible that one of that group drops to 12 if enough teams ahead of them are targeting forwards but I wouldn’t say it’s probable.  I just can’t see Dickinson falling out of the top ten.  Here’s a big, mobile, two-way defender in a good program (OHL London) that can log heavy minutes.  He has top-pairing upside and those players don’t typically drop that far.

Catton, on the other hand, I could see him slipping to 12th.  Should he?  Probably not.  However, as we saw with Zach Benson last year, undersized forwards can sometimes wind up being picked a few spots later than expected.  Given that he’s a center with legitimate offensive upside, I’d have him gone before then if I was doing a mock draft today but if a couple of teams opted for bigger players instead, there’s a chance that Catton could make it to the Flyers.  He’d certainly be a good fit for them.

sabres3277: Do the Sabres finally move away from keeping the first-round pick #11 and package it with one of the young guys, Rosen, Kulich etc. to acquire the NHL veteran top-six forward/center they really need?

That’s a pretty significant package you’re considering giving up.  The 11th pick should yield a quality player and Isak Rosen and Jiri Kulich have legitimate upside as well.  I’ll start my answer with a question:  Is that package the best use of resources to land a short-term veteran?  If your target is an impactful veteran, that player isn’t going to have much club control in all likelihood.  (If that player is signed for several seasons, he’s probably not getting moved.)  Is it worth giving up that package for a two or three-year piece?  I’d lean toward the answer being no.

Part of the challenge for Buffalo here is that this is only a move that a pure seller would make, not a team that’s already a potential playoff threat so we’re wiping out upwards of 16-20 teams right off the bat which limits the options.  Of the non-playoff teams/rebuilders, how many of those teams still have a player like that to move?  Not too many.

To me, that package looks like one geared toward trying to move up from 11 in the draft to try to land a specific player that’s in the top five on their draft board.  Most teams in the five-to-nine range are of the rebuilding variety and might be inclined to trade down, especially if the player they’re eyeing is someone they think could slide.  (In a draft like this where there’s minimal consensus beyond the top prospect, this is a legitimate possibility.)

If you’re looking to add a win-now top-six piece, doing so in free agency would be the most ideal.  Failing that, if they have to go the trade route, I think it’s going to take someone more established at the NHL level to get the type of player you’re looking for, not a futures-based return.

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