The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Tampa Bay.
The Lightning managed to make the postseason for a seventh year in a row, but further confirmation that their contending window is coming to a close came swiftly via their cross-state rivals. The Panthers, now just one win away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, dispatched them in a quick five-game series, their first win in three playoff series against the Bolts. Now, with back-to-back non-elite regular seasons and a pair of first-round eliminations, general manager Julien BriseBois needs to pull off some tricks to keep the franchise from spiraling into mediocrity after its greatest stretch of success in franchise history.
Re-Sign Stamkos
BriseBois already checked one major item off his offseason checklist, acquiring some much-needed defensive help by acquiring former Bolt Ryan McDonagh from the Predators. Unfortunately, that’s created a temporary cap crunch that makes contract extension negotiations with captain Steven Stamkos much more difficult.
It isn’t the first time the future Hall-of-Famer has gotten dangerously close to becoming a UFA. Negotiations were testy after a five-year bridge deal expired in 2016, and he waited until 48 hours before the market opened to sign an eight-year, $68MM extension. With that deal now run out, Lightning fans will hope it doesn’t take that long again. It wouldn’t be a good sign for a player who, despite expressing a strong desire to remain in the only NHL market he’s ever known, was disappointed with the lack of extension talks last summer.
He’d likely take a discount on his market value, somewhere in the $8MM range annually, to stay in Tampa. But their current projected $5MM of cap space with a minimum of one other roster spot to fill likely won’t cut it, especially since he’s not eligible for performance bonuses.
They’ll need to free up space to get it done, something the rest of this checklist examines in more detail. But even as Stamkos’ even-strength numbers begin to dip, he’s a bonafide top-six winger that they don’t have the offensive depth to shoulder the loss of. He still managed to rack up over a point per game this season, recording yet another 40-goal campaign with 81 points in 79 contests. The 34-year-old was also their goal leader in the playoffs, lighting the lamp five times in five games.
Offload Bloated Forward Contracts
The Lightning reached three straight Stanley Cup Finals largely because of their cost-effective depth scoring. BriseBois has failed to continue that trend in the past two years thanks to a pair of ill-advised acquisitions.
One was much more harmful than the other, and he’s already on the trade block. BriseBois gave up five draft picks, including a first-rounder, to pick up grinder Tanner Jeannot from Nashville in a trade last year. He’s managed just eight goals and 18 points in 75 games for the Bolts since the deal and spent a good portion of the 2023-24 campaign on the shelf. Averaging fringe third-line minutes, they can’t afford to keep him at his $2.67MM cap hit next season. There’s still optimism around the league that he can rebound to his 24-goal form with the Preds two years ago, but with a 16-team no-trade list kicking in on July 1, they’ll need to move on from him in short order.
There’s also the matter of Conor Sheary, who BriseBois inked to a three-year, $6MM deal with trade protection in free agency last summer. He managed only four goals and 15 points in 57 games this season and was a healthy scratch for most of the stretch run, including all five of their playoff games. His spot in the lineup was replaced by minor-league call-up Mitchell Chaffee, who’s already inked a cost-effective extension with an $800K cap hit. His $2MM cap hit can’t be afforded for a player who provided league-minimum value this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see BriseBois offload him in a pure cap-dump transaction. He has a full no-trade clause at the moment, although it downgrades to a 16-team no-trade list on July 1.
Combined, the moves would bring the Lightning’s cap space to nearly $10MM, enough to re-sign Stamkos and add a low-cost depth scoring forward on the free agent market to help replace Jeannot and Sheary.
Get Another LTIR Contract
Having retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract on the books for the past two seasons was beneficial to the Bolts. After confirming he wouldn’t play again due to injury, Tampa acquired the Cup-winning defenseman’s $6.875MM cap hit from Chicago, placing him on long-term injured reserve for the past three seasons to help give them in-season spending flexibility.
That contract has now run out, though, and they’re entering the summer without anybody available to help fudge their spending limit. That doesn’t mean they can’t pull off another trade to acquire a dead contract, though. As part of their purchase of the Coyotes’ hockey operations, NHL Utah is picking up the final two seasons of injured center Bryan Little’s contract, which carries a $7.86MM cap hit. With Utah GM Bill Armstrong having full permission from ownership to spend to the salary cap, unlike years past in Arizona, Little’s deal becomes an inhibition for Utah rather than a benefit to help them hit the cap floor.
If they have interest in selling the final two seasons of Little’s contract, expect the Lightning to engage. It wouldn’t mean much for their off-season spending, but placing him on LTIR once the season starts could give them some slight in-season recall and trade flexibility. The few other LTIR-bound contracts around the league are proving advantageous to their current clubs, such as the Golden Knights’ Robin Lehner, so Little might be BriseBois’ only option if he wants to go that route.
Upgrade Backup Goaltending
Tampa struggled defensively, ranking below average in goals against, but it wasn’t all on their skaters. Star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy had a remarkably pedestrian season after recovering from preseason back surgery, allowing more goals than expected based on the shot quality he faced for the first time since 2015-16, per MoneyPuck. His .900 SV% was also right in line with the league average.
The four-time Vezina finalist could easily return to form after a healthy offseason, but relying on him to carry elite numbers through 60-65 appearances as he enters his 30s will become unrealistic. Throwing league-minimum backup Jonas Johansson to the wolves to start the season didn’t have good results, and he finished the campaign with a poor .890 SV% (that was still above his career average) in 26 appearances.
Waiving Johansson and spending even just $500K more on a more proven backup option in free agency could make a major difference in the standings for Tampa next season in an increasingly competitive Atlantic Division.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Compared to most teams offseason checklists, TBL’s checklist is pretty straightforward unlike other teams like VGK’s checklist for example.
For TBL getting rid of Tanner Jeannot’s $2.6 million AAV & Conor Sheary’s $2 million AAV is key. Jeannot they got to get rid of before his M-NTC kicks in July 1st which I’m certain they will. Sheary’s NTC turns to a M-NTC on June 15th so they can’t do anything with him until then. Also, TBL could get a little more cap room by also potentially sending off Nick Perbix’s $1.12 million AAV.
The LTIR cap idea is definitely something I see TBL looking into though it’s more beneficial during the season than the offseason but TBL is known for finding any type of financial leeway possible which is smart & savvy as the calculating GMs all do & BriseBois is one of them just like his predecessor Steve Yzerman.
Steven Stamkos I feel will get signed as soon as TBL makes the few moves above with Jeannot, Sheary, & etc as that will a lot them plenty to sign Stammer & still potentially bring one or two low-cost scoring depth FA pieces to the roster.
TBL’s championship window isn’t closed but in order to keep it open TBL needs to do a little retooling & that championship window can be still very much open as the foundation is still firmly there.
Vatrano is that type of player whom you win a Cup with. With that said, I agree with everything you said previously. Unfortunately it won’t happen.
I don’t know if it’s feasible, but I’d love for the Bolts to try to acquire Vatrano from the Ducks for 3rd line scoring.
Frank Vatrano has a $3.65 million AAV with one year left. The problem isn’t so much the financial aspect as there is ways to make arrangements for that in certain regards but it’s what the Ducks may ask for which would be more than likely a 1st round pick. Bolts don’t have a 1st round pick until 2026. I don’t think the Bolts have any plans in trading that pick moving forward.
Honestly, Bolts would be better off waiting to see if Vatrano hits UFA after next season & then maybe pending various circumstances they can go after him but that’s another story.
Vatrano is a really good player but circumstances make it a little challenging at the moment for the Bolts.
“Old” Vatrano is NOT what they need, this year nor next. Unless as a rental. If they are to do anything in the next two years, they need to be aggressive like they were with a young Hagel.
Anaheim’s GM Verbeek is saying the right things about Zegras, but only to try to increase his trade value. He doesn’t care for him, and he is playing left wing now. But he wont give him away. IF, a big “if”, Tampa could wrangle the Little contract from Utah, it would make life easier for Tampa to swing for the fences, but they could still remake the team with better fitting pieces even without the contract.
Tampa could trade the ‘26 1st rounder, ‘25 3rd rounder, and Cernak for Zegras and the ‘24 Boston 2nd rounder the Ducks own, because the Ducks are looking to take a big step this year, and a Stanley Cup winning “Radko Gudas light” signed reasonably long term for a player Verbeek doesn’t really want is a good start for rebuilding their young and porous defense to protect their young goalie.
Then Tampa could resign Duclair, who fit in really well, and resign Dumba to be a cheaper version of Cernak.
Then they could still keep Cirelli for the checking line, where he really belongs.
If the Ducks wanted Cirelli instead of Cernak, that would work as well. You could then put the Dumba money into someone like Jordan Martinook (UFA- Car) and maybe trade for Eeli Tolvanen (RFA- Sea)
Zegras as the 2nd line center takes pressure off of him, and gives Stamkos a creative passer who can also score. It also gives him a role model in Stamkos to take his game to the next level.
Cernak or Cirelli give the Ducks an “in their prime” Stanley Cup pedigree player to take pressure off the kids they have. They can move McTavish to LW for Cirelli, or try to sign Guentzel for a really deep offense. I think Cernak is the better fit, however.
Win-win
Would much rather give Jeannot a full chance. He still hasnt had enough consistent time to gel with any of his teammates.
That said, with Tampa Bay putting him on the 3rd and 4th lines, and limiting his minutes, i have no idea how they expect him to produce when hes with other players that don’t produce, outside of Paul, and he sees 2nd line and powerplay time as well.
Sheary could go, not physical enough to play on the 3rd or 4th line.
Their “best” trade they could make, as mentioned in another article, would be for LTIR.