In case you’ve missed the discourse after the Lightning’s first-round elimination last night (or haven’t read our preview of this summer’s top UFA left wings), Steven Stamkos is on an expiring contract. The future Hall-of-Famer has now wrapped up the eight-year, $68MM extension he signed in 2016 and will go to market on July 1 if not signed to an extension.
Over the course of his extension, the now 34-year-old Stamkos has overseen the greatest sustained period of success in franchise history. The club only missed the postseason once – the first season of his deal, 2016-17, in which a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee ended his campaign in November. Back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, a third straight Finals appearance in 2022, and an additional Eastern Conference Final showing in 2018 have cemented the Lightning as arguably the most successful squad over the past 10 years, notwithstanding the three other ECF/SCF appearances Stamkos made with the team before his extension (2011, 2015, 2016).
Overall, injuries limited him to 513 of 618 possible regular-season games (83.8%) during his last contract, but he’s remained a capable top-of-the-lineup scorer and is money in the bank for over a point per game. He had 81 in 79 this season, including 40 goals – his seventh time hitting the milestone.
Stamkos has transitioned into a less-taxing role on the wing at even strength in his later years with the emergence of Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point, as well as the extremely well-advised Nick Paul pickup, making his slightly negative possession impacts over the last two seasons easier to swallow. He was never a beacon of defensive excellence, but he did at least routinely post Corsi shares at even strength above the team’s overall share without him on the ice. That hasn’t been the case since 2021-22.
He’s still an extremely effective player, and given the precedent of other Lightning stars like Point and Nikita Kucherov taking slight discounts on their market value, it likely wouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to re-sign him. But Tampa’s lack of bottom-six scoring and poor defensive depth – especially without a fully healthy Mikhail Sergachev – was exposed in their rather decisive series loss to the Panthers.
The club has $10MM in projected cap space next season, with extensions/replacements also needed for Anthony Duclair, their best secondary scorer since his trade deadline pickup from the Sharks, and blue-liner Mathew Dumba. They’re also losing the $6.875MM of long-term injured reserve flexibility they’ve had from retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract over the past couple of seasons.
Point is still 28. Kucherov is 30. Cirelli is 26. Hedman is 33. Sergachev is 25. Vasilevskiy is 29. Even without Stamkos, it’s a playoff-caliber core for at least two to three more seasons with the right moves. Will that make general manager Julien BriseBois seriously consider prioritizing better depth adds over re-signing the best player in franchise history?
Stamkos said before the 2023-24 season started that he was disappointed in the lack of extension conversations with BriseBois. The six-year GM said in January that he still envisioned Stamkos as part of the roster moving forward but would wait until the offseason to evaluate where the roster stood. The results are as follows: Tampa scored just 36.9% of 5-on-5 goals in the series, a worse share than even the Capitals, who were swept at the hands of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers. Nine players, including most of their bottom six forwards, failed to score a point. Given they got everything they could ask for from their stars – seven points from Hedman, seven assists from Kucherov and five goals from Stamkos, that may very well swing the balance.
So, PHR readers, we now ask you: Are the Lightning better off keeping Stamkos or using offseason cap space to prioritize rebuilding their depth scoring and defense? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
40 goal scorers don’t grow on trees. It does seem like the Tampa front-office is trying to lowball him & draw it out to gain advantage in contract negotiations. Then they make the glorious signing announcement to much pomp & circumstance & act like they were magnanimous the whole time.
Go to Toronto for $3.5M and play with buddy JT for a season. Leafs will have room when they move Marner.
Toronto is a dumpster fire
Yea go to a team that is 1 out of 9 getting past the 1st round.
Let’s be serious, the Bolts love him but he has to take a pay cut to return. $5M for 2 years or thank you for everything & we’ll see you at your jersey retirement ceremony.
Hope Stammer is able to stay in Tampa.
I feel like some team or another is gonna massively overpay for Stamkos one way or another. I’d love to see him wind up on the same team as one of the Tanevs though, so we could have more than one Macedonian player on a team at the same time. XD
Hometown discount: 3 years / 25 million?
Do you think he can get 5 years / 40-50?
Don’t see how he would sign for 2/10. Even if the cap didn’t move (which it will) that seems like an incredibly low-ball offer for a franchise icon.
The guy is still an elite player. I wouldn’t offer him more than three years at his age, all the same, but if he doesn’t get the bucks, someone with cap space will offer it to him. I could easily see Detroit jumping at the lure to get them over the top, for instance. Seattle, to have its first big name player? Calgary, which definitely needs a win this summer and doesn’t have many players to sign? I could stand to see Stamkos in a Bruins’ uniform next year, come to that.
Anaheim and his friend GM Pat Verbeek
I’d say it’s time for TB to retool. However, Stamkos is one of the guys I’d want to carry into the next window if possible.
Total defensive liability at this stage. Best to let someone else overpay for further decline years.
Buffalo could use him as a #3C. With Tage, Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Quinn, Dahlin, Power, UPL, Levi, Byram, Benson & Skinner he wouldn’t have to carry to much of the load. Plus Buffalo has Kulich, Rosen & Savoie (+ others in Rochester) waiting in the wings. Buffalo could offer him a 2 year deal at $8.5-$9mil per at the minimum. Buffalo also added Lindy Ruff as HC recently.
I think he stays in Tampa, somewhere in the 4 years, $26M range, which is $6.5M AAV.
That would leave about $3.5mil for the rest of the roster.
Buffalo should kick the tires on Stamkos but finding a younger #3C & more grit should be the main focus for Buffalo this off-season.
They will get him resigned. He wants to stay. I see him riding his jet ski sometimes off Davis Island and he looks so happy. He is one of the most beloved players in Tampa Bay sports history. No state tax helps ease the hit of taking a hometown discount. He will get his 600th in a Bolts uniform. 3/$20-$21M.