Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Nashville’s goaltending situation, ranking the NHL’s potential expansion sites, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check in last weekend’s mailbag.
PyramidHeadcrab: With the Sharks having now cleared nearly all of their large (and arguably, overpriced) contracts off the book, what’s the next step? What actions lead to greener pastures?
The next step is patience. While it feels like San Jose has been rebuilding for a while, they’re still in the relative infancy of it when it comes to accumulating assets and future core pieces. They have a few in place headlined by Will Smith but there’s still some work to do on that front. Landing their goalie of the future will also need to happen.
Basically, they need another couple of years like this before slowly starting to build back up as their core youngsters get integrated into the lineup and become comfortable enough to take on bigger roles. As that happens, then they supplement with quality veterans and, ideally, impact ones over time. In other words, follow the model that Arizona is doing which is a long-winded rebuild but one that should eventually prove to be fruitful.
I assume you were hoping for something more concrete of an action, however. Here’s what I’d recommend.
San Jose needs to be the clearinghouse for teams to offload pricey short-term deals. They can’t retain any salary until 2025-26 as their three slots are all tied up so they can’t pick up picks that way. But they can add draft choices by taking on some contracts. It’s not as if they don’t want or need to spend either; they have nearly $39MM in cap space for next year, per CapFriendly, and their RFA class won’t eat up a huge chunk of that amount. Rather than shopping in free agency to get to the cap floor, why not take on a contract or two (or three) and add some more assets that way? I’m not saying that will expedite things but if it helps land them another quality prospect or two, it’d be well worth doing.
GBear: Does Trotz trade either Saros or Askarov this offseason, and if so, which of the two?
I’m going to answer these out of order. If one moves, I think it’s Juuse Saros. I say that knowing that Nashville was believed to be open to move Yaroslav Askarov to move up at the trade a year ago but it’s a different situation now than it was then.
Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension with Winnipeg just gave Saros a legitimate benchmark to shoot for in his next negotiations. Should Nashville be willing to commit that type of contract to Saros two years from now? I’d say no, especially since they’re not exactly short-term contenders. This time a year ago, I think the team could have been aiming for an extension in the $7MM range based on how the goalie market had played out. But the Hellebuyck one really changed the math on that which I think then changes the outcome of who goes.
As to the question of when a move happens, in a perfect world, those two are the tandem to start the season, giving the Preds some insurance and Askarov a quality veteran to work with. The problem is getting full value for a legitimate number one goaltender in-season is something that probably just isn’t going to happen. Few teams have a need at that time and usually, some that would couldn’t afford Saros’ $5MM price tag.
Accordingly, I guess it’s going to need to happen in the offseason, likely leading up to the draft where some of the bigger moves get made. That would then give GM Barry Trotz time to find a veteran replacement to work with Askarov, either via trade or in free agency although it’s not a particularly strong UFA class for netminders.
Cla23: What are the chances of the Jets signing Monahan and Toffoli to extensions? What’s going to happen to Perfetti? Trade bait maybe?
I would say that the Jets have a reasonable chance of signing Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to new deals. If I had to pick one of the two as to who was more likely to sign, I’d go with Toffoli. He was certainly open to re-signing in New Jersey and it came down to term and money; the two sides were just too far apart. If GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is willing to meet that asking price (which was speculated to be around the contract that Alex Killorn got last summer, four years and $25MM), then I don’t think Toffoli would have any issue eschewing a chance at testing the market, especially with the Jets being a team that is firmly in win-now mode.
Monahan’s a bit of a trickier case. The long injury history makes him a real wild card. I’m sure Monahan would like a long-term deal that set him up for the rest of his prime years but with that injury history, do the Jets want to give him that? Perhaps more importantly, does Monahan think he can get it? If so, he’ll probably go to market. But if he figures his best shot is a medium-term agreement, then I think it’s right in Winnipeg’s wheelhouse to get a deal done.
I don’t get the sense that Cheveldayoff will be looking at Cole Perfetti as trade bait this offseason. Yes, he was a healthy scratch recently but he still should be part of their longer-term plans. He’s having a quieter year than expected but Perfetti is still just 22. Now being deployed on the fourth line, he’s not exactly in a spot where he could be maximizing his trade value either. Perfetti will almost certainly wind up with a short-term bridge contract in his first trip through restricted free agency so they can easily afford to give him another year and see how things go before taking a longer look at assessing his long-term fit with the franchise.
MoneyBallJustWorks: What does the offseason look like for the Pens? Clearly, Kyle Dubas wants to change this roster makeup and get younger.
Is it possible we actually see one of Crosby, Letang, Malkin, or Karlsson moved in the offseason? They have most of the roster locked up for next year so I imagine trades are how they are going to have to address this roster primarily.
It definitely feels like there’s a goal of getting the Penguins to be a younger group. And, barring an improbable turnaround that propels them into a playoff spot, that should be the course of action to take. That said, it’s a concept that’s a lot easier said than done.
Let’s look at the four veterans you listed. I don’t think Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin would entertain the possibility of leaving and waiving their no-move clauses. Erik Karlsson tried his best to pour cold water on the idea of him moving on although I think he’d consider it in the right situation. So maybe it’s him. But otherwise, Sidney Crosby might be the logical candidate. He, too, has a no-move clause but has suggested he’d want to do what’s in the best interest of the franchise. He’d certainly bring back the best return so if it comes to that and he’s amenable, it could be Crosby who moves on to help jumpstart the rebuild if they’ve decided the time is right to do that.
Having said that, I don’t think Plan A is moving any one of those. Instead, it’s more work around the edges of the roster. Reilly Smith will be on an expiring deal next season so there should be a viable trade market for him. I expect they’ll try to do something with Rickard Rakell in a player-player swap of underachievers. Marcus Pettersson could be in play on an expiring deal as well. Getting some younger pieces back will accomplish that same objective while giving their core yet another opportunity to try to get back to the postseason. It’s a fine line to balance but I suspect Dubas will be encouraged to attempt to pull this off.
I’m not convinced it’ll just be trades, however. If the cap goes up to $87.5MM as expected, they’ll have a little under $13MM to work with, per CapFriendly. As you noted, a lot of spots are filled so there is room for them to add a piece or two on the open market. If they aim for the younger options (27, 28, maybe 29 years old), they can make the team a bit younger while still potentially upgrading it. I don’t think the teardown to really cycle to a younger core is coming just yet but the average age will be a bit younger on opening night next season. All in all, I think it’ll be a busy summer for Pittsburgh but not quite at least year’s activity level.
Black Ace57: How would you rank the rumored expansion cities from most likely to least likely? Also, why is Cincy even in consideration when Columbus already has to contend with the Penguins over building a fan base? Can Ohio really support two teams like that?
There are believed to be five cities that have reached out to the NHL about potential expansion based on comments from NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman last month. Those five, with my rankings, are Salt Lake City, Houston, Atlanta, Omaha, and Cincinnati.
With Salt Lake City, it feels like a matter of when, not if, a franchise is there. About the only way it doesn’t happen through expansion is if the Coyotes wind up there. (Frankly, that’s a semi-realistic outcome.) It seems safe to say they’ll have a team soon enough.
Houston is the other one where it feels like a case of when, not if. They already have an arena and a potential owner in place. It’s also a major media market and as we’ve seen with the NHL’s attempts to keep the Coyotes in a bigger media market in Arizona, they’re going to try hard to stay in (or get to) the big markets.
Atlanta would be next. Yes, it has failed before but by the time a team was to come, basically an entire generation would have gone by. It’s a sizable market with at least a bit of a core base from the Thrashers days. I’m not overly confident that they’d have long-term success but with it being a bigger market as well, that will help their cause.
The other two I’m a bit skeptical about. Omaha is at least a new market but I’m not sure that alone is enough to get the NHL’s attention. And I share the same concern with Cincinnati. It’s not that they’re under consideration though, they’ve just submitted a letter of interest. But I don’t see that one happening either.
@iftfwc: I know the offseason for my Avalanche is a ways off, but, do you feel like taking a shot at this? I’d be extremely interested in your thoughts on offseason signings assuming Landeskog is back! Who will return?
With Justus Annunen having recently signed a contract extension, Colorado is now looking at having around $9.6MM in space for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming the cap goes to $87.5MM. With that money, they need to sign three defensemen and four forwards. You’ve identified Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Walker, and Jonathan Drouin as must-sign players which is all well and good in theory but the three of them alone will cost more than that, let alone leaving space for two more forwards and two more defensemen.
Mittelstadt is the safest bet to stay. He’s a pending restricted free agent and considering they gave up a core player to get him, they’re not going to let him walk. The issue is that he’s arbitration-eligible and two years away from UFA eligibility; there isn’t much of a chance for a bridge deal. Even a one-year pact more than doubles his $2.5MM price tag and a long-term pact pushes past $6MM. I think their preference will be the latter which basically prices them out of doing much of anything else beyond signing players for the minimum to round out their roster.
In a perfect world, they’d love to sign Walker but I think the only way they have even a semi-realistic chance at doing so is if they’re able to move Josh Manson and the final two years of his deal off the books without holding back any money. With Manson carrying a $4.5MM price tag, that’s going to be easier said than done, even with his no-trade moving from a full one to a partial one in mid-June. At this point, Walker could very well command more than Manson’s current price tag so fitting him in beyond this year will be tough.
Drouin had to settle for a one-year deal last summer as there was no way of spinning two goals in 58 games into a long-term agreement. He picked Colorado as a place to show that he can still play in the top six and mission accomplished on that front. But it would be shocking to see him take another sub-$1MM deal in the summer and that’s what it would take to get him to return. I think Nikolai Kovalenko is who they have earmarked for Drouin’s spot next season; the winger should see a few games down the stretch for the Avs at a minimum.
I expect GM Chris MacFarland will want to try to open up at least a bit more flexibility if Gabriel Landeskog is indeed able to play next season. That might have to come from the back end with either Manson or Samuel Girard being on the move. But without that happening, you’re probably only going to see one of your three remaining must-sign players actually sign, that being Mittelstadt. There just isn’t enough to keep the others around and fill out the rest of the roster.
Unclemike1526: The one change I’d like to see is enlarging the nets. Has anybody seen the way goalies play? They are all like 6’5″ Europeans who spend the whole game on their knees like we used to do in PE in the 60’s. It’s a joke. Every shooter aims for the upper corners and has to make a perfect shot to score a goal. They need to make the nets a couple of inches wider at least to give shooters a chance. Nobody even looks for goalies who are on the smallish side because they don’t cover as much net on their knees or just standing there. The goalies have gotten bigger and bigger and the nets and rinks have stayed the same. Thoughts guys?
While goalies have gotten bigger, the equipment has been shrunk over the years. Additionally, the technology in sticks has gotten a lot better. The end result is that scoring has trickled up over the past few years, up by a quarter goal per game compared to just a few years ago and a half a goal per game from a decade ago. The final numbers aren’t in yet obviously but it looks like it will be in the 3.1 to 3.2 range which is where it has been the last couple of years.
To me, that’s about the right magic number for team goals per game. It used to be that getting three meant you had a pretty high chance of winning. That’s no longer the case; getting three doesn’t even always give a team a good shot at securing a loser point.
I’ve never been a proponent for making the nets taller or wider or even some of the ideas they had with changing the angles of the goalposts and crossbar to try to have more goals bounce in than out. Most games have six or seven goals. I don’t think I’d want to see that number go up, to be honest. The odd high-scoring affair where neither goalie can stop much is fun to see as a one-off but I wouldn’t enjoy it on any sort of regular basis.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Agree on goal size and shape. The game is in a good spot. The most glaring oddity is the LTIR, but even that has some fun in it.