PHR Mailbag: Graves, Ullmark, Mercer, Laughton, Red Wings, Rangers, Sabres

After focusing on the Central Division last weekend, we turn our focus to the Eastern Conference in this edition of the PHR Mailbag, looking at some trade ideas and what a few teams might do in the next few days.  If your question doesn’t appear here or in last weekend’s piece, we’ll have one more mailbag running soon so watch for it in there.

Zoe G: Unfortunately, Ryan Graves didn’t have the standout season everyone was hoping for in Pittsburgh. Any chance he will go back to the NJ Devils?

This is one of those never-say-never questions but let’s just say I’d be shocked if Graves went back to New Jersey, at least with how things look today.

Let’s look at their cap situation on the back end.  At the moment, they have over $23MM tied into their current back end, including Dougie Hamilton who is on LTIR but will be back next season.  That’s already in the top half of the league.  Adding Graves and his $4.5MM to the books puts them just shy of the top five in spending.  Is that the most efficient use of their resources when they know that Luke Hughes isn’t too far away from a pricey new contract?  At that point, they might be approaching the league lead for spending on the back end.

There’s also the fact that Graves has five years left on his contract.  From Pittsburgh’s perspective, that largely deflates his value given his struggles so are they willing to part with one of their key offseason acquisitions for a return that would almost certainly be well below his perceived value a year ago?  I don’t see the Penguins wanting to do that and really anyone (not just New Jersey) wanting to take a swing on Graves with the struggles he’s having.  He needs to show that this year was just an aberration and not a sign of things to come before a trade becomes a little more realistic.

azcm2511: Thoughts on a Linus Ullmark for Dawson Mercer deal? It would benefit both teams, and it is possible that Ullmark would waive his trade restriction for a short move down the road. This move would benefit both teams and NJ can certainly handle Ullmark’s contract.

This is the type of trade proposal where I don’t think either side would immediately say no and hang up the phone.  I mean that as a compliment at a time when a lot of fan proposals are ultimately skewed too heavily in favor of one team to the point where they can’t seriously be considered.  Having said that, I think this is a trade that both sides would eventually pass on.

From New Jersey’s perspective, Mercer is an important part of their long-term plans.  I know he’s having a bit of a down year but he’s a season removed from 27 goals and 56 points; that’s a true top-six forward.  He also has four years of club control left.  Is it the right move to make to give up four years of control on a top-six forward for Ullmark who only has one year remaining?  That one gives me pause.

If I’m putting my Devils GM hat on, I’d also question how much of Ullmark’s success is system-based.  When he was in Buffalo, he was hot and cold; basically, he was a similar goalie to the ones they have now, ones that are good when they’re on and struggle mightily when they’re not.  I’m not saying Ullmark will go back to that Buffalo form but he might not be the Boston version with the Devils either.  If I have any hesitation about Ullmark being a top-end goalie in New Jersey’s system, trading a controllable young piece for him may not be the best approach.

From Boston’s perspective, it’s a bit more of a coin flip but this is what it comes down to for me.  Part of the Bruins’ success is derived from having two above-average and rested goalies on any given night, giving them the goaltending advantage way more often than not.  Take Ullmark out of the equation and it’s all resting on Jeremy Swayman, a player with about a year and a half worth of NHL games under his belt.  Is he ready to be a full-time number one and an every-game goalie in the playoffs?  If they’re not 100% confident the answer is yes, then I think they’d eventually lean to a no answer.  I don’t think they’re quite at a 100% confidence level for this season.

Granted, this swap would give them a young building block up front on a roster that doesn’t have a lot of those.  It also would give them $4MM or so in cap space to use down the stretch so if they had a deal to get a backup they trust in place and something to use the rest of that money on, then they might be a yes on this idea.  But since New Jersey probably isn’t, I don’t think this is a trade we’ll see in the coming days before it gets to the point where Ullmark is approached about waiving.

SkidRowe: Is there any way the Bruins can acquire Scott Laughton and would it be a good idea?

I’m going to answer these out of order.  Would it be a good idea to add Laughton?  I think it would.  He’s not a true top-six player in terms of offensive production but his defensive game makes him a high-end third option for a lot of teams.  Boston’s center depth isn’t the best and could certainly stand to be augmented.  Plus, a $3MM price tag for two years after this one is below market value and should be one that they can afford longer-term on the books.

That said, I don’t see how they could bring him in.  With the center market being thinned out, GM Daniel Briere can put a high asking price for Laughton’s services.  With a positive-value contract, it goes even higher.  At this point, I think the offer starts with a first-round pick plus some other assets.  The Bruins are already down a first rounder from last year’s Tyler Bertuzzi trade and they don’t have a second-round selection until 2026.  They also have a prospect pool that’s quite shallow thanks to several consecutive years of going for it.  Accordingly, are they the team that is going to be able to put together a package strong enough to get him?  I’m skeptical they’ll be able to do so.

gowings2008: Do you think the Red Wings use the deadline to add assets while also staying in the race? I’ve seen rumors of Perron being dealt to Edmonton which would allow Berggren to step in. A lateral move if you ask me, lineup-wise, but could earn the Red Wings some decent assets. They also have a surplus on defense and in net to deal from that wouldn’t necessarily hurt their playoff chances this year. What could some of these moves look like if they were to happen?

To answer the first part of your question, I don’t see them being too much of a buyer and a seller.  Detroit is sitting pretty comfortably in a playoff spot right now and moving away anything of consequence from its roster would be risky.

If someone wants to take James Reimer, sure.  That would yield a late-round draft pick and clear up a logjam.  But even on defense, I can’t see them moving one without getting one in return.  If they can get someone who’s a better fit, great.  Otherwise, unless they perceive value strictly from clearing someone like Olli Maatta or Justin Holl’s deal, it makes more sense to keep them.  If someone wants Klim Kostin with the hopes that they can get the version from a year ago, fine, make the move which again, wouldn’t yield much.  Otherwise, stick with (or add to) what you’ve got.  Moving David Perron feels like an unnecessary step back unless there’s a big swing coming and I don’t think there’s a big swing coming.

The Red Wings are in a nice spot at the moment.  They basically have a full set of draft picks to work with, a fairly deep prospect pool as a result of the recent selections they’ve made, and more cap space than any playoff-bound team.  If GM Steve Yzerman wants to play it conservatively, just use the cap room to take on an expiring contract or two to shore up the depth without giving up anything too valuable.  There will be several of those deals out there.  That can still be spun as buying and showing confidence in the group that you have while also realizing that this probably isn’t their year to truly be a contender.  I don’t expect too much from Detroit over the next few days to be honest but I suspect what they do will skew mostly toward the buying side.

met man: What do the Rangers do before the deadline? Trade for a center or defense?

If it’s a one or the other proposition, I’d go with a center.  I know they’re in short supply and they just extended Jonny Brodzinski but I like Brodzinski in a depth role than a third-line one come playoff time.  Adam Henrique fits perfectly and Alexander Wennberg, who they were linked to recently, also makes sense.  If Thomas Novak is made available by Nashville, he’d be worth pursuing as well and I have Jack Roslovic as a fall-back option that could work on the third line.  If they go for a depth option and do something else of note, a reunion with Colin Blackwell (who can play down the middle) might be feasible.

As far as defense goes, I don’t see them doing a whole lot.  Erik Gustafsson has his flaws but he can put up some points from the back end.  Braden Schneider plays a style that’s better suited to closer-checking playoff hockey.  If you add a blueliner of note, one of them is coming out of the lineup.  Would they be better off adding a better seventh option and saving most of their trade chips for a middleman or other offensive upgrade?  I’m inclined to believe so.

I see them sniffing around on the winger options as well; might they bring in Vladimir Tarasenko for the second straight year?  If a quality center can’t be acquired, I suspect this might be their Plan B, bringing in as talented of a player as possible rather than trying to check off a specific box.  They tried that approach last year and while it didn’t work as planned, it wasn’t the worst approach to take.

@MrEd315: After having such a dreadful season so far, which Buffalo Sabres are getting moved from now to the trade deadline? And will it be some players with term and team control contracts?

I don’t think GM Kevyn Adams expected to be in this spot when the season started but they’re so far out of the playoffs that they have to be sellers.  However, I suspect he still has a lot of confidence in this core group.  If that’s the case, are they going to want to move someone of consequence to shake up that core?  Or would they rather sell off some depth pieces and try to make an addition or two in the summer to take this group forward?  I’m inclined that they’ll lean toward the latter.

Kyle Okposo is someone I think will garner some interest.  At $2.5MM (which can and likely will be paid down), someone will look at him as a viable bottom-six insurance policy.  Zemgus Girgensons, assuming he’s not re-signed, fits on a fourth line somewhere so he’d fetch a later-round pick at least.  Erik Johnson might want to stay but with the dearth of defensive options out there, it’d be worthwhile to move him.  Those are the ones I have a bit of confidence in from a trade perspective.  Victor Olofsson even at 50% might not be movable; the best bet for him is a team that has ample cap/LTIR room five minutes before the deadline and decides to just take him on as depth.  Eric Comrie and Eric Robinson are also expiring but I don’t sense either will have enough interest to make a trade happen.

As for non-rentals, Jordan Greenway hasn’t quite fit as expected but with his size and another year left at a reasonable rate, they could get a good enough offer to move him.  I also wonder about Henri Jokiharju, someone whose playing time is down a fair bit compared to the last couple of years.  If the Sabres are souring on him, there should be teams willing to take a flyer on him, a right-shot defender with some team control remaining.  If those two aren’t in Adams’ plans as part of Buffalo’s core, it wouldn’t shock me if one or both of them were moved.  But in terms of big-name players going, I’d be surprised if that happens.

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