Trade Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche

With the All-Star break in the rearview, the trade deadline looms large and is about a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avalanche are near the top of most people’s lists of Stanley Cup favorites in 2024. It’s understandable – Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar playing like the best players in the world at their respective positions heading out of the All-Star break. This core is also less than two years removed from one of the most dominant championship runs in recent memory.

However, they also boast one of the most flawed rosters on paper in this year’s contending class. They lack a true second-line center behind MacKinnon, no active forward outside the top line has cracked 30 points, and their goaltending has been only slightly above average. Alexandar Georgiev ranks 14th out of 32 starters in goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck. Their forward depth could be buoyed by the returns of captain Gabriel Landeskog from a knee cartilage replacement that was previously thought to be season-ending and Valeri Nichushkin, who is receiving treatment in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, but both players still have a muddy path to a return with no clear timeline. Assuming at least one of Landeskog or Nichushkin returns in time for postseason play, does GM Chris MacFarland believe this team is a top-six center and a backup goaltender away from winning their second championship in three years?

Record

32-14-13, 1st in the Central

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$1.24MM on deadline day, 0/3 retention slots used, 47/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2024: COL 1st, COL 4th, SEA 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
2025: COL 1st, COL 3rd, COL 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th

Trade Chips

Colorado’s cap space and draft pick cupboard are typical of a team that’s been in contention for a half-decade. However, their cap situation is likely to improve dramatically by March 8. The team isn’t accumulating any space with Landeskog and backup netminder Pavel Francouz on LTIR for a combined $9MM in relief, but Nichushkin’s $6.125MM cap hit still counts while he’s in the PAP and is taking a significant chunk out of their LTIR pool. Nichushkin is eligible for LTIR if he’s expected to meet the minimum absence requirements of 10 games and 24 days, which he will satisfy if he doesn’t return by Feb. 8 against the Hurricanes. If the Avalanche expect him to remain in treatment through the deadline, they could add him to LTIR and have nearly $7.4MM in space on deadline day, enough to execute any move they’d like.

That could be a tricky dance, though, as Nichushkin could return before the end of the regular season. The Avalanche would still need space to activate him from LTIR when he’s ready to go. Landeskog being ready to play before the postseason is much less likely, but as he’s begun on-ice work in his return from knee surgeries that have kept him out of the lineup for almost 20 months, it’s not impossible.

Colorado’s bottom six is fine for what it is. It’s the top nine that needs some fiddling, so they could stand to make a money-in, money-out move with some draft picks attached to necessitate an upgrade. That puts Ryan Johansen and his half-off cap hit of $4MM at the top of the Avs’ trade bait list. The 31-year-old’s stint in Denver hasn’t worked out, recording 11 goals and seven assists for 18 points in 49 games. He has below-team-average possession metrics and is now averaging less than 14 minutes per game. Nothing about his stat line this season is representative of a second-line center on a contending team, although he would carry value in a trade to a rebuilding team as a nearly 900-game veteran with years of top-six experience in his past. His deal expires at the end of the 2024-25 season, so he wouldn’t saddle a rebuilder with a long-term cap commitment if they anticipate spending big soon.

It’s a seller’s market on centers this year, as evidenced by the Canadiens recouping a first-round pick for the services of Sean Monahan as a rental from the Jets. That will require Colorado to attach one of their upcoming first-round picks in a deal, especially given they’ve traded away their upcoming second-round picks in back-to-back deadline deals for Artturi Lehkonen (2022) and Lars Eller (2023).

Team Needs

1) Second-Line Center: The gaping void down the middle behind MacKinnon’s electric performance (84 points in 49 games at the All-Star break) is perhaps the most glaring need for any contender in the league. If Johansen’s contract is going the other way to facilitate a swap, and the team has first-round picks (and some other lesser assets) to spare, is there a fit with the Ducks as a trade partner for Adam Henrique? The 33-year-old veteran is third on the Ducks on scoring with 15 goals and 33 points in 49 games and is one of the best options left on the market with Monahan and Elias Lindholm already off to new teams.

2) Experienced Backup: The Avalanche are no stranger to injuries between the pipes. Their 2022 Stanley Cup win wouldn’t have happened without the services of Francouz, who stepped in admirably when then-starter Darcy Kuemper was out for stretches of the First Round and Conference Final. After waiving Ivan Prosvetov last weekend, 23-year-old Justus Annunen and his five games of NHL experience are now firmly ensconced as Georgiev’s backup for the stretch run. His numbers aren’t great – a .871 SV% and 3.94 GAA over the past three seasons – but he has a respectable .908 SV% and 2.65 GAA in 23 minor-league showings with AHL Colorado this year. Still, MacFarland and head coach Jared Bednar would surely prefer a lower-risk option at the most important time of the year should Georgiev exit the lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.