Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR concludes its look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $85,054,827 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Connor McMichael (one year, $863K)
F Aliaksei Protas (one year, $789K)

Potential Bonuses
Protas: $82.5K

Last season was a step back for McMichael who went from being a regular in Washington to a regular in Hershey.  This year, he’s back to being a regular but hasn’t been all that productive despite seeing a lot of top-six minutes.  While he’s still almost certainly part of their future plans, he’s likely heading for a bridge contract around double his current price tag.  Protas has already signed a new deal which we’ll cover later but it’s worth noting his bonuses are based on games played.  A full-time regular, Protas should max out on those as long as he stays healthy.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Edmundson ($1.75MM, UFA)*
F Beck Malenstyn ($762.5K, RFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($2MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Sandin ($1.4MM, RFA)

*-Montreal is retaining an additional $1.75MM on Edmundson’s contract.

Potential Bonuses
Pacioretty: $2MM

After struggling with consistency in Detroit, Mantha hasn’t been able to improve on that with the Capitals.  At times, he plays like a top-liner and at others, he’s barely noticeable.  While he has played better as of late, it’s hard to see him matching his current contract.  A one-year pillow deal could be a viable option while a multi-year agreement likely starts with a four.  Pacioretty missed more time than expected while recovering from his second Achilles surgery and has been relatively quiet since returning.  Meanwhile, $1.5MM of his games-played bonuses have already been met while the final $500K should be reached this week.  There will still be a market for Pacioretty this summer but it’s likely to be a deal structured similar to this one with some performance bonuses in there.

Aube-Kubel cleared waivers at the beginning of the season but has done relatively well with Washington where he has still spent most of the year.  That said, as a long-term fourth liner, his earnings upside is going to be limited this summer and a small cut in pay isn’t out of the question.  The same can’t be said for Malenstyn who has locked down a full-time roster spot, spending a lot of time on the third line.  His offensive numbers are low enough that his next deal won’t be too expensive but he should at least double his current cap hit, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Edmundson battled injury issues early in the season and has been limited to duty on the third pairing since returning.  With injuries causing him to miss significant time over the last few years, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Edmundson’s next deal come closer to what Washington is paying him now compared to his full $3.5MM AAV.  As for Sandin, he hasn’t been able to keep up the level of production he had down the stretch last year but he is still logging top-four minutes and is a part of their longer-term plans.  He’s owed a $1.6MM qualifying offer but could more than double that on a long-term agreement that buys out some of his UFA-eligible seasons.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Alexander Alexeyev ($825K, RFA)
F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM, UFA)
D Ethan Bear ($2.0625MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1MM, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Michael Sgarbossa ($775K, UFA)

Backstrom was able to return from hip resurfacing surgery last season where he performed relatively well, not so much relative to his contract but simply for coming back and being a top-six player.  However, he struggled early on this season before shutting it down with lingering pain.  He’s on LTIR and may very well stay there through next year.

The hope was that Kuznetsov would rediscover his offensive touch under new head coach Spencer Carbery after a trade failed to materialize in the summer.  Instead, he struggled through the first half of the year and is now in the Player Assistance Program.  Assuming he returns from that, it’s quite unlikely that he’ll be able to command anywhere close to this type of contract in 2025; something in the $4MM range might be the more realistic target.

Oshie provided plenty of value on this deal early on but it was always expected that the final couple of years could be a drag on Washington’s cap.  He’ll be 38 when this deal is up so if there is another contract for him, it’s likely to be a bonus-laden one with a base price tag between a quarter and a third of what it is now.

Dowd has worked his way from being a depth player to a capable third liner since joining the Capitals.  He doesn’t provide enough scoring to really top out his earnings but as a good penalty killer and someone who can hold his own at the faceoff dot, he could plausibly double his current cost on a multi-year deal in 2025.  As for Sgarbossa, he’s up with Kuznetsov out of the lineup and has been an AHL recall for several years now.  That doesn’t seem likely to change unless he can grab hold of a full-time spot while he’s up.

Bear recently signed this contract and will be looking to rebuild some value after an injury sustained at the Worlds kept him out for nearly half the season.  His contract is backloaded – next year’s salary sits at $2.75MM – and that price tag is likely where he’s hoping his next contract will land, assuming he can move into a more prominent spot in the lineup next season.  Alexeyev is a waiver-blocked young defender who has had a hard time cracking the lineup so far this season.  Until he’s able to grab a hold of a spot, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to command much more than this.

Lindgren has slowly worked his way from a third-string goaltender for the first several years of his professional career to a decent backup early in his time with Washington to now a strong-side platoon netminder as he is in the midst of a career year.  Considering the market value for a decent platoon option is three times his current price tag (if not a bit more for some), the Capitals are getting great value here.  Meanwhile, if Lindgren can keep up his level of play through next season, he will be in line for a substantial jump in pay, one that could push past the $4MM mark on a multi-year agreement based on contracts handed out to similar netminders in recent years.

Signed Through 2025-26

D John Carlson ($8MM, UFA)
D Martin Fehervary ($2.675MM, RFA)
D Nick Jensen ($4.05MM, UFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($3MM, UFA)

Ovechkin provided a decent return on the first two years of his contract but he has slowed down considerably this season despite a recent hot stretch.  This is a legacy deal as he tries to chase down the all-time goal record.  It wouldn’t be surprising if this is his last NHL contract unless he winds up just a few tallies short and takes a one-year agreement to take one final crack at Wayne Gretzky’s mark.  In that instance, a bonus-laden deal with a much lower base salary would be quite likely.  Milano had to settle for a league-minimum contract in-season last year but played well enough to get some stability.  A back-to-back 30-plus-point player, he’ll give Washington some good value if he can stay around that level of production while setting himself up for a small raise down the road.

At his peak, Carlson was one of the premier point producers from the back end.  Those days are gone now although he’s still above average on that front while logging number one minutes.  As long as that continues to be the case, they’ll get a reasonable return on this contract.  Having said that, by the time he goes to sign his next deal, it will almost certainly come in a few million below this.  Jensen had a career year last season to earn this contract but hasn’t been able to play at the same level.  As a right-shot defender who can play on the second pairing, it’s not all bad news but right now, this contract looks like a bit of an overpayment especially with him being 33 already.  Accordingly, it’s hard to see him looking at a raise in 2026.

The same can be said for van Riemsdyk who turned his best year into a three-year deal as well but hasn’t been able to repeat it this season.  More of a player best suited as a fifth option on a third pairing, this price tag is also a bit on the high side based on van Riemsdyk’s current level of performance.  If he stays at that level for the rest of the deal, he’ll be looking at a pay cut as well.  Fehervary has become a capable checking blueliner, one that plays with plenty of physicality.  With a limited offensive skill set, he won’t produce enough to command a significant raise with his arbitration rights in 2026 but a small one should be coming.  With his deal being front-loaded, his qualifying offer checks in at just over $1MM so that won’t be a factor in discussions.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

G Darcy Kuemper ($5.4MM through 2026-27)
F Aliaksei Protas ($3.375MM from 2024-25 through 2028-29)
F Dylan Strome ($5MM through 2027-28)
F Tom Wilson ($5.167MM this season, $6.5MM from 2024-25 through 2030-31)

Wilson’s current contract was a market-setter at the timing, giving someone who had only hit the double-digit goal mark once a bigger raise than many anticipated.  Since then, it has been used as a benchmark in many negotiations, helping to set the power forward premium that several players have received.  For the most part, the Capitals have got a reasonable return on their investment as Wilson has been able to stick on the top six throughout the deal.  That said, his next contract also raised some eyebrows as giving someone who plays a very physical style (thus taking a harder toll on the body) that much money through his age-37 season will carry some risk.  As long as he can hold his own in the top six and contribute around 20 goals, Washington will do okay with this contract.  When that changes though, it could be an anchor for them.

Strome finally got the long-term security he had been seeking with this deal, a nice spot to be in after being non-tendered in 2022.  He’s not a typical top center but they’re not paying him to be on either.  He has already hit 20 goals for the third straight season; that type of output from a middleman at this price tag is a reasonable return.  There is certainly some projection in Protas’ contract.  He has just three goals this season and ten for his career.  However, they’re hoping that he can find another level offensively and chip in with some reliable middle-six minutes.  Just 23, that type of optimism is certainly understandable.  If he can become a steadier contributor, this could be a value deal down the road.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Lindgren
Worst Value: Kuznetsov

Looking Ahead

With Washington on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, GM Brian MacLellan may look to sell.  There’s some value in doing so as it would allow Pacioretty and Protas’ games-played bonuses to potentially hit the books this season instead of being rolled over to 2024-25.  Alternatively, if the Capitals get on a run, they have enough LTIR flexibility with Backstrom to add a piece or two but it would result in those bonuses being pushed to next season.

There is some reasonable balance in terms of having a handful of notable expiring contracts each year for the next few seasons.  That gives the Capitals some options in terms of keeping a handful of them while keeping enough cap room to try to replace others from outside of the organization.  That said, it looks like it will be a couple more years before they’re in a spot to really try to add a piece of significance to the existing core.  Until then, they’re likely to remain in the middle of the pack when it comes to the standings.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.