Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $84,629,281 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None on the active roster.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Jeff Carter ($3.125MM, UFA)
F Jake Guentzel ($6MM, UFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($850K, UFA)
D Pierre-Olivier Joseph ($850K, RFA)
G Alex Nedeljkovic ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($800K, UFA)

Guentzel’s situation is well-known at this point.  There haven’t been any substantive discussions about a new deal but the 29-year-old is set to be one of the top forwards available in free agency this summer and will be eyeing a multi-million-dollar raise on a long-term agreement.  That will still be the case whether it’s Pittsburgh or someone else giving it to him.  Whoever has him on their roster after the trade deadline will be the only team that can offer the max-term eight-year deal; everyone else will be limited to seven.

Carter did well in his first year and a bit with the Penguins, earning this extension as a reward.  But on this contract, he has struggled considerably, especially this season.  Now 39, it’s fair to wonder if this will be his final year.  If it’s not, he’ll be looking at a deal worth close to the league minimum with perhaps some small incentives.  Harkins came over in October as a waiver claim before clearing waivers less than three weeks later.  Despite that, he has spent most of the season in the NHL on the fourth line.  That gives him a chance at securing another one-way contract but it’s also likely to be at or very close to the $775K minimum salary.

Joseph has battled injuries this season and hasn’t played a lot when he’s healthy.  While his qualifying offer is for just under $900K, tendering it would give him arbitration eligibility.  With over 100 NHL games under his belt, the potential award could be more than what Pittsburgh would want to pay him.  If they can reach a deal beforehand, it should come in close to the $1MM mark.  Ruhwedel has been a serviceable depth piece for several years now and being a right-shot player certainly helps his value.  Another one-way contract close to this one should be doable.

After a particularly rough showing last season with Detroit, Nedeljkovic has bounced back quite nicely with his best performance since his breakout stretch in 2020-21.  If teams feel this level of play is sustainable, then he could conceivably double this on the open market.  But with the year-to-year volatility, something closer to the $2.75MM range may be more realistic.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($2.45MM, UFA)
D John Ludvig ($775K, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($900K, UFA)
F Drew O’Connor ($925K, UFA)
D Marcus Pettersson ($4.025MM, UFA)
F Jesse Puljujarvi ($800K, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($5MM, UFA)

Crosby has been a Penguin for his entire 19-year NHL career and while some have openly speculated about him being traded, that doesn’t seem like a probable outcome at this point.  He will have just turned 38 when the 2025-26 season gets underway so another multi-year agreement (between two and four years) isn’t entirely unrealistic.  For Pittsburgh, the longer the term of the offer, the lower the cap hit would be, similar to some of the other deals their long-term veterans have received.  Considering how he has performed this season, there’s a chance that his next contract could carry the same cap charge as this one and the one that preceded it.

Smith came over from Vegas in a cap-dumping move but he’s still a capable middle-six player.  However, this price point is on the high side for someone in that role based on his usage with the Penguins.  If he winds up being in the 40-point range (compared to the 56 he had in his final year with the Golden Knights), Smith may need to take a small pay cut heading into his age-34 campaign in 2025.  Eller is still a serviceable third-line center for now but he’ll be 36 when his next contract starts.  Assuming he slows down a bit more, he’ll likely have to go year-to-year with a price tag a bit below this one.

O’Connor had been more of a role player until this season where he’s averaging nearly 15 minutes a night while setting career highs offensively.  If that usage and production hold next season, he could at least double his current price tag on his next deal.  Nieto has battled injuries this year but, when healthy, has been a regular on the fourth line, a role he is used to holding.  This has been his price range for the last two contracts and it’s unlikely that will change on his next one.  Puljujarvi’s market was recently set with the winger finally signing earlier this month.  Unless he can establish himself as a top-nine regular, he’ll continue to be on the fringes, keeping his price tag close to the minimum.

Pettersson had a couple of rough seasons but turned things around last year and has been even better in 2023-24, showing he can still be a top-half defender on a depth chart.  However, his lack of offensive output most years will limit his earnings upside.  Still, another long-term agreement and at least a small raise should be doable, an outcome that would have been surprising just a couple of years ago.  Ludvig was a waiver claim but an early-season concussion has limited him thus far.  If he can stick around as even a seventh defenseman, however, he could land at least a mild raise a couple of years from now.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Noel Acciari ($2MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM, UFA)

Malkin has certainly slowed down this season but at 37, that’s to be expected.  He’s still producing at a top-six rate so for now, they’re getting a good return.  As he ages, however, the value of this contract will drop.  Similar to the Crosby discussion, that’s the trade-off for getting an AAV that’s lower than what his market value would have been otherwise.  Acciari has shown flashes of third-line production over the year (he even had a 20-goal campaign) but is best utilized as a fourth liner with some extra faceoff utility.  This contract is a bit pricey for someone with that profile but it’s not a significant overpayment either.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

D Ryan Graves ($4.5MM through 2028-29)
G Tristan Jarry ($5.375MM through 2027-28)
D Erik Karlsson ($10MM through 2026-27)*
D Kris Letang ($6.1MM through 2027-28)
F Rickard Rakell ($5MM through 2027-28)
F Bryan Rust ($5.125MM through 2027-28)

*-San Jose is retaining an additional $1.5MM per season on Karlsson’s contract.

Rust has been a key secondary contributor for the Penguins, netting 20 goals or scoring at a 20-goal pace in six straight seasons, including this one.  This contract isn’t great value for someone whose point total is typically in the 45-50 range but it’s certainly not a negative-value pact either.  As long as he hangs around those numbers, they’ll do fine.  There was some risk with Rakell’s contract given his decline in production with Anaheim and limited action with the Penguins at the time.  They got a great return on it last season although he hasn’t played close to that level this season.  Given his volatility in output with the Ducks, this might be a contract that bounces from good value to poor value on a year-to-year basis.

It took way longer than expected but the Penguins eventually offered a suitable trade for Karlsson with the hopes that he could remain a top-end producer, even if he came up short of his career numbers from a year ago.  While he won’t be a Norris contender again this year, Karlsson has done relatively well, all things considered, and is within striking distance of the top ten in scoring by blueliners.  That’s not great from a value perspective but even with the Sharks paying down part of his contract, it’s going to be difficult for him to provide a lot of surplus value.  As is the case with several veterans on this squad, there will be concerns of a bigger fall-off toward the end of this deal.

Speaking of another one of those veterans, Letang will be turning 37 in April and there is concern about how much he’ll be able to produce in the last couple of years of this contract.  However, for someone who typically is among the top-scoring blueliners, his current price tag is below market rate.  Once again, short-term gain for longer-term pain.  Graves turned two strong seasons with New Jersey into one of the priciest contracts handed out in free agency last summer in terms of total money.  The early return hasn’t been great; he’s a capable fourth option but they’re paying him to be more impactful than that.  There’s plenty of time for him to take on a bigger role at least.

Buyouts

D Jack Johnson ($917K through 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Jeff Petry ($1.563MM through 2024-25)

Best Value: Guentzel
Worst Value: Carter

Looking Ahead

After a summer that featured a fair bit of roster shuffling, the Penguins find themselves among the many teams that will be in a money-in, money-out situation if they wind up trying to be buyers at the trade deadline.  If they sell, then they’ll likely wind up with a bit of late-season flexibility for injury insurance.

Most of the core group is under contract for 2024-25 but there is enough room to re-sign Guentzel or try to replace him next summer.  Same with Crosby a year later.  At this point, the Penguins don’t project to be as cap-strapped as they are now down the road but if Dubas tries to keep this team competitive as long as possible, that certainly could change as other veterans get added to the mix.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.