PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Kane, Henrique, Flyers, Ruff

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Buffalo’s disappointing first half of the season, Patrick Kane’s future with Detroit, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column.

YzerPlan19: What happened to the Buffalo Sabres?! Did the lofty expectations for this season crush them?

I was certainly among those who had Buffalo at least being in the playoff mix this season.  I had them being in a close battle for a Wild Card spot and they currently sit 10 points out which isn’t exactly a close battle.  They’ve certainly underachieved.

I’m not sure it’s the lofty expectations (being a possible playoff team isn’t exactly a huge bar to clear) that have hurt them.  Instead, I think it’s the byproduct of an overly young roster with veterans who haven’t been able to step up to cover for the youngsters’ inconsistency.

When you look at the young talent they have, the tendency is to look at the year they just had and expect that they’ll be able to improve on it.  Thus, several core players each take a step or two forward and there are a bunch of internal gains that move them up in the standings.  It’s great in theory but in hindsight, expecting all of those players to take a leap forward was probably asking too much.

Not to single out the goaltending but hopes were quite high for Devon Levi based on how he finished last season.  But we’re talking about a stretch of barely two weeks.  Expecting him to stay at that level just might have been too much, too soon for him.  Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been inconsistent which is to be expected for a young goalie while Eric Comrie couldn’t pick up the slack which is why he cleared waivers earlier this season.  Improved goaltending was a big reason for the higher expectations but the hopes were too high, too fast.

Similar statements could be made for several forwards as well, particularly Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, and even Alex Tuch to a lesser extent.  The hope was they’d maintain or beat their production from last season but they’ve all taken a step back.  Kyle Okposo and Victor Olofsson aren’t picking up the slack either, unfortunately.  If a couple of the youngsters are producing like they were last year, they probably have a few more wins and are at least in a realistic battle for a Wild Card spot in the stretch run.

I still think there’s a pretty good core here for Buffalo to work with.  The goaltending should get better as Levi and Luukkonen get more seasoned.  Bounce-back performances from some forwards can definitely happen as well.  I think they’ll be in good shape in the long run but it appears their playoff drought is going to last a little longer.

Millville Meteor: Adam Henrique is having a good season. I expect the Ducks to trade him. What kind of return can we expect for him?

Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek must be thrilled at the way things have played out.  Calgary moved Elias Lindholm earlier than expected, pushing Henrique up a rung on the talent list.  Lindholm’s removal from the market then boosted Sean Monahan’s market, resulting in Montreal pulling the trigger on a trade early.  Now Henrique is the top rental option available.  That can only help his market.

Having said that, I’m skeptical that the Ducks will be able to get a first-round pick like the Flames and Canadiens did in their moves.  Henrique’s numbers are quite comparable to the other two but Lindholm has the stronger reputation while Monahan’s contract is much more affordable.  With Henrique making $5.825MM, that’s a price tag that few teams can afford, let alone few contending teams.  They’re going to need retention and quite likely a second team to retain another chunk which could dilute the return Anaheim gets.  I’ll say he fetches the Ducks a second-round pick and maybe a lesser asset (a late-round pick, a fringe prospect, or salary ballast) while the acquiring team will flip a fourth-rounder to whoever retains the second chunk.

rule78.1: Regarding Patrick Kane, the Red Wings, and the trade deadline. Keep him or trade him? If a trade is made, what expected return would the Red Wings receive?

First things first, he needs to show he’s healthy.  He didn’t make it back before the All-Star break as they hoped he might be able to so he needs to clear any lingering doubts about his health.  And with what he’s coming back from with his hip surgery, any injury is going to give teams some hesitance.

As of today, Detroit sits tied for the top Wild Card spot with Toronto.  All things considered, that’s a bit better than I expected.  It’s particularly impressive considering the spotty goaltending they had early in the year, resulting in third-stringer Alex Lyon taking over the number one job and running with it.  Unless their place in the standings craters over the next month, I’d be inclined to hold onto Kane.  Yes, there’s a risk of missing the playoffs and potentially losing him for nothing but it’s not like they gave up anything to get him.  And with the Red Wings not being in any sort of meaningful playoff race since 2016, there’s some inherent value in just keeping their group together and giving their younger players a taste of a tight stretch run.

But if they were to move him, the return isn’t going to be quite as high as it was a year ago when he yielded a second and a fourth-round pick to Chicago (plus a third to Arizona for retaining another 25%).  He’s having a good year but we’re talking about a 19-game sample size, lingering issues about his hip in his first post-surgery campaign, and a lower-body issue that has cost him three weeks already.  Accordingly, I could see a second-rounder on its own being the ceiling for what Kane would bring back in return if Detroit decided to trade him.

Black Ace57: Who do you think on the Flyers is likely to get traded now? Atkinson? Walker? I’ve heard with Seeler that they want to see if they can agree on an extension. Do you think there’s a chance Frost still gets traded after the rumors earlier?

Sean Walker certainly seems like a good bet to be dealt.  He’s having a nice bounce-back year after his playing time getting limited with Los Angeles and at $2.65MM, his contract is affordable, particularly if Philadelphia pays it down.  The fact he’s a right-shot defender certainly helps as he might be the most coveted option once Chris Tanev is moved.  For someone who was acquired at least in part as salary ballast, the Flyers are well-positioned to get some value for him.  If a team wants extra depth, maybe there’s a late-round pick somewhere for Marc Staal as well.  And if Nick Seeler signs an extension – it seems like they’re trying to hammer one out – then he’s off the list of options to trade.

I doubt there’s a strong market for Cam Atkinson.  He has been decent this season coming back from neck surgery that cost him an entire season but it’s that injury and the fact he has a $5.875MM AAV through next season that will scare teams off now.  In the summer, if Philadelphia is willing to pay down the contract and take a light return, then there should be a small market at least.  One forward to keep an eye on is Scott Laughton.  With the center market being so light, if GM Daniel Briere decides to make him available, he could command a quality return with two years left after this one at a below-market $3MM price tag.

Morgan Frost feels like he could be an offseason trade more than an in-season one at this point.  A trade involving him might be a player-player swap of players that are of a similar age or team control.  It might be more appealing to rebuilding teams but they generally aren’t looking to do those moves until the summer.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Assuming Ruff is fired after the season, who will be the next coach of the Devils???

First, I’m not certain that Lindy Ruff is going anywhere.  Extending a coach to a multi-year deal and then firing him soon after doesn’t happen a lot (periodically, but not often).  How much of New Jersey’s struggles are coaching-related compared to their injuries (Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier, and Timo Meier have all missed double-digit games)?  And is it the fault of the head coach when the goaltending falls off the proverbial cliff?  I’m not absolving Ruff of any responsibility here but certainly all the blame can’t be laid at his feet either.

But I’ll play along with the premise.  If Ruff is gone, I don’t think GM Tom Fitzgerald will be looking for a first-time head coach; this is a team built to win now.  If we look at who’s out there with some NHL head coaching experience, Craig Berube comes to mind as someone who might try to get this Devils team to play a bit more structured.  I also could see them turning to Jay Woodcroft who had lots of early success with Edmonton and could bring a newer approach after having a long-term veteran in Ruff.  Those are who I’d lean towards predicting if Ruff is let go but again, I’m not sure that scenario is going to happen just yet.

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