PHR Mailbag: Central Division Edition

There were plenty of Central Division questions for the mailbag so we’ll give that division the focus here.  The rest of the questions will be split into two more segments to run between now and next weekend.

Gmm8811: Thoughts on Doug Armstrong being a buyer or seller before the trade deadline? I don’t think he really has anything to offer that would be of interest to other teams. Scandella, Vrana, and Kapanen could probably be had for a minimal return. I’m also not opposed to Perunovich or Saad being moved. Any type of minor league assets or reserve list players would be acceptable. I don’t think the Blues will make the playoffs this year, so maybe a few tweaks to increase the depth might be useful for next year.

St. Louis is right in the think of the Wild Card race and unless they lose every game between now and the deadline, they’ll probably be right in the race on deadline day.  Having said that, this is not a team that anyone is going to call a contender so going big on adding doesn’t make sense.  And while they might want to sell, they don’t have much when it comes to rental players to move.

Marco Scandella might get a late-round pick with max retention.  Kasperi Kapanen might as well since he can kill penalties which gives him some fourth-line utility in the playoffs.  I’m not sure there’s a market for Jakub Vrana though.  One rental you didn’t mention was Sammy Blais.  I know he’s having a rough year but he’s a fourth liner who can hold his own at five-on-five and provide a lot of physicality.  Teams will be looking to add that and at $1MM, he’s on a contract most teams can afford.  Of the pending UFAs, he might have the most value.  I don’t think the return for Scott Perunovich would be high enough to justify moving him so I think he stays put.

Brandon Saad might be a tough sell with two more years left at $4.5MM.  He’s not on a bad contract but that’s a tough one for teams to fit in and St. Louis isn’t going to want to retain on him.  Unless it’s a player-for-player move, I suspect he stays put.  Pavel Buchnevich will be the big fish if Armstrong decides to sell and aim for missing the playoffs next year.  At $5.8MM, he’s pricey but he’s the type of impact top-six addition that is in short supply and high demand.

Money will be tight for St. Louis once Justin Faulk comes off LTIR so they’re in a spot where if they want to add, they also need to subtract.  It wouldn’t shock me if they moved Scandella with retention for a pick and then flipped that pick or one close to it elsewhere to maintain their depth so that if they do make the playoffs, they’ll have some options.

WilfPaiement: Marc-Andre Fleury was clobbered again on Tuesday night against Winnipeg and yet we keep hearing that a few likely playoff teams are showing interest. My question is who? And why? Fleury is toast and he won’t make any team better in the playoffs!!!!

I don’t think teams are necessarily showing interest in Fleury as someone they’d want to use a whole lot in the postseason.  But here’s a player who has several long playoff games under his belt (with three Stanley Cups), has plenty of postseason playing experience, and is known for being good in the room.  If I’m looking to add a piece that can either be an upgrade on my current backup or someone who can handle some extra games down the stretch and be an off-ice contributor as well, Fleury makes some sense.

Is that a particularly exciting profile of a player?  Not really.  Would Minnesota get a lot for him?  Probably not.  But if a team has a bit of money left or a need to try to do something between the pipes but doesn’t want to pay a high price, there’s a fit with Fleury.  Colorado makes some sense if they’re just looking for a stopgap backup upgrade but some work would need to be done to make the money work.

However, would Fleury want to go somewhere to be the designated bench door opener for the postseason?  There’s a lot of speculation that if that’s the role that a contender is envisioning for him, he might just opt to remain with his family in Minnesota and play out the season; it’s not as if they’re out of the playoff hunt by any stretch.  Teams know they’re not getting the Fleury of a decade ago but there’s a small set of circumstances where he might be the right fit if he’s willing to accept that role.  At this point, it doesn’t seem as if that will be the case.

wsendall: Any chance Arizona would listen to offers on Clayton Keller? He has a full no-trade that kicks in next year and Arizona still seems like they’re several years away and has tons of organizational uncertainty. He’s already asked some questions about the team’s direction and the possibility of having a frustrated star player in a year or two with a full no-trade wouldn’t be ideal. It would take a king’s ransom, but his value may never be higher prior to his no-trade kicking in.

I don’t think the Coyotes are at a point where they can unilaterally not listen to offers for anyone but I doubt GM Bill Armstrong has any inclination about dealing Keller away.  At 25, he’s the right age to be a ‘veteran’ in this rebuild and at $7.15MM through 2027-28, he’s at a pretty good price point for someone who’s near a point per game.  You’re absolutely correct that it would need to be a king’s ransom for it to even be considered but those types of deals are usually easier to make in the summer than at this point of the season.

Keller may justifiably have some questions about the state of this long-term rebuild.  However, I think the worst of it is over and it might very well be this offseason where the switch flips and Armstrong gets aggressive using his draft capital to try to add some core pieces, similar to the Sean Durzi acquisition last summer.  If that happens and they’re in the thick of the Wild Card race next season – not an unrealistic goal to set given where they are – then I expect some of that frustration might dissipate as he sees the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.  I expect Keller sticks around for the long haul and certainly through the next two weeks.

DevilShark: What do you think Saros would cost? Both trade value and his next contract. Which teams can feasibly afford both?

Goalies are so hard to figure out on the trade value front.  I’d like to think Nashville could get a first-round pick and a quality young player for Saros since he has another year left at a team-friendly $5MM.  They probably would have to take back a salary or two as well which could theoretically then be flipped if need be.  That’s a lot for a netminder especially relative to some of the past deals for goalies but Saros is a top-end one so the return should be high.

Extension-wise, I’d have to think he’d look at Connor Hellebuyck’s seven-year, $59.5MM extension as a target.  Granted, he doesn’t have quite the accolades that Hellebuyck does but he’s also a little younger so there is a bit less risk when you look at it that way.  I don’t think he gets quite to an $8.5MM AAV but it could check in close to that unless next season resembles this one numbers-wise.  In that scenario, the next deal would start with a seven.

As for who could afford both, that’s a tough one.  I think New Jersey could although they’d need to move out Vitek Vanecek to make the money work for next year.  Buffalo can afford both but if they’re confident that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi can be a winning tandem down the road, they don’t necessarily have the need to make a move like this.  If Detroit isn’t sold on Sebastian Cossa’s upside, they’d be an under-the-radar team that could afford to make that type of trade and they have the cap space that they could carry Ville Husso as a very expensive backup for a year.

I’d like to put Ottawa on this list as they’ve been trying everything they can to put together a quality goalie tandem short of actually acquiring a proven netminder.  In my mind, Saros could be a real difference-maker for them and they certainly have the prospect capital (or even some younger roster players) to make a move.  But they can’t make the money work this season unless they move out Joonas Korpisalo and with his contract and performance, that’s not likely happening.  Basically, there’s a reason the Devils have been the speculative fit for Saros as they might be the only realistic team that could add him now and have the ability to extend him later.

Cla23: Do the Jets really need to trade for a defenseman; if so, which one realistically? Tanev has to be out…one of the Flyers guys, maybe Dumba??

For a team that just let Declan Chisholm go for free and still has Ville Heinola waiting in the wings, it might seem a little strange that they’d now want to turn around and trade for a defenseman.  But yeah, I think they need to trade for a blueliner.

For whatever reason, the Jets are hesitant to give Heinola any sort of meaningful look.  Their usage (or lack thereof) of Logan Stanley tells me they’re not comfortable using him for an extended stretch.  Kyle Capobianco is serviceable as a depth option but isn’t someone they want to count on either.  So, basically, if any of their top-six options go down, they’re not in a comfortable spot.  If that’s the case, don’t they have to add some insurance?

I don’t think the Jets have to be picky when it comes to handedness so it’s a matter of finding the right fit.  Ideally, I’d think they’d want someone who can play in the top four in a pinch but anchors the third pairing.  Mathew Dumba makes a lot of sense in that role.  Out of Philadelphia’s options, Sean Walker makes the most sense.  Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier also stands out to me as a possible third-pairing stabilizer.  On the lower end of the scale where the target is a more playable seventh option, Joel Edmundson (Washington) feels like a good fit in terms of the type of defenders they seem to like.

UncleMike1526: I’m just curious what you guys think if the Blackhawks end up with the worst record in the NHL and win the ping pong ball raffle again, is Celebrini the right pick for the Hawks? I mean if we can take Slaggert at his word and he signs with Chicago and Nazar comes after the College season is done is Celebrini the best pick? We have Moore, Bedard, Nazar and Reichel for speed. Although Reichel is looking more and more like a bust here. I think he needs to go somewhere else to relax, He’s tight as a drum. As well as the Hawks young D has come along in the last couple of months if they get the pick who is it? Who best helps Bedard and Co. take the next step? Thanks guys, Looking forward to your answer.

If Chicago winds up with the top pick once again, they need to take Macklin Celebrini.  It’s really that simple.  This isn’t a draft class where the number one pick is in some question; Celebrini is the consensus number one choice.  And if you’re a rebuilding team, you need to take the best player available with the top pick which means Celebrini would need to be their pick.

You raise a valid point about the Blackhawks then potentially having a bit too much of the speedy skilled players.  Objectively, too much skill shouldn’t sound like too much of a problem in theory but in terms of having some balance in terms of roster composition, I get the idea here.  But eschewing Celebrini to take a lesser piece that’s a better fit isn’t the way to fix that problem.

The players you listed all should have good to great trade value (and clearly Connor Bedard isn’t getting moved).  They are pieces that should yield a strong enough return to get a core player in return that better complements their roster.  And I agree that Lukas Reichel could be a change-of-scenery candidate before too long.  For me, that’s a way better approach than passing up on Celebrini; get the defenseman or better fit up front via the trade route.

With Bedard and Celebrini, the Blackhawks would have a dynamic controllable one-two punch down the middle that could be among the best in the league before too long and in the long run, that will help them take the next step.  GM Kyle Davidson shouldn’t overthink it if they’re fortunate enough to land the first pick; Celebrini should be their pick.

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