Trade Deadline Primer: Arizona Coyotes

With the All-Star break approaching, the trade deadline looms large and is about a month and a half away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Arizona Coyotes.

The Coyotes are in a small rut, going 4-5-1 in their past 10 games. That shouldn’t take too much away from what’s been a drastic improvement in play around a developing core that seems to have most of the pieces in place. GM Bill Armstrong has made it quite clear that the team’s rebuilding days are over, and he’s hinted at being willing to start moving the needle on the trade market. Of course, a quick turnaround in play after the All-Star break could make that decision easy. Arizona is still within shouting distance of making their second playoff appearance in the last 12 years, and as such, they’ll be a bit of a wild card come March 8.

Record

23-22-3, 6th in the Central

Deadline Status

Conservative Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$13.44MM on deadline day, 1/3 retention slots used, 48/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2024: ARI 1st, ARI 2nd, FLA 2nd, WSH 2nd, ARI 3rd, COL 3rd, EDM 3rd, ARI 4th, SJS 4th, ARI 5th, ARI 6th, ARI 7th, BOS 7th
2025: ARI 1st, ARI 2nd, TOR 2nd, EDM 2nd, NYR 2nd, ARI 3rd, NYR/DAL 3rd (cond.), ARI 4th, ARI 5th, ARI 6th, ARI 7th

Trade Chips

A quick look at the list of draft picks above reveals an abundance of second-round selections over the next two years. With the Coyotes likely averting true seller status, this bag of picks will be the first thing Armstrong reaches for if he’s looking to make some small adds to help push this squad into the playoff picture.

Of course, if the Coyotes are going to make a larger swing (they’ve been connected to Flames defenseman Noah Hanifin), it’ll take more than that. It doesn’t seem likely that Armstrong would consider moving out a first-round selection before this Clayton Keller-led core has made a postseason appearance in a non-shortened season, which could open the door to some of their quickly developing prospect pool being shown the door.

Most Coyotes fans were impressed with 23-year-old Barrett Hayton’s play this season before a hand injury sustained in November shut him down long-term. He’s yet to return from the injury, which was only supposed to sideline him until Christmas, but a setback sustained last month has lengthened his recovery. He had put up decent possession numbers and passed the eye test in a first-line role between Keller and Nick Schmaltz, but the production wasn’t there, posting only two goals and two assists in 16 games. Could that stretch be enough for Armstrong to consider moving the 2018 fifth-overall pick in a deal for a more pressing need? Jack McBain, only a year older than Hayton, has recently stepped into the first-line job and has three points in his last five games. He’s had positive possession impacts in the role, but not as strong as Hayton’s, who posted a 58.9% expected goals share when on the ice with Keller and Schmaltz compared to McBain’s 51.4% (per MoneyPuck).

Short-term UFA pickups Alexander Kerfoot and Jason Zucker have been important in middle-six roles for Arizona this year, especially Kerfoot – his 0.58 points per game are the most among the Coyotes’ centers. They likely won’t be on their way out unless Armstrong receives an offer he can’t refuse.

If Armstrong does look to move out one of Arizona’s recent veteran pickups, look for it to be defenseman Mathew Dumba. While defense is likely the area the Coyotes are looking to fortify with deadline additions, Dumba has struggled in the desert and could help them swing a deal for an upgrade. The 29-year-old has five points in 44 games with a 45% Corsi share at even strength that ranks near the bottom of the team. With a retention slot open, they could absorb half of his $3.9MM cap hit on a one-year deal and make him a palatable deadline add for a contending team looking to bring in a veteran for their third pairing.

Team Needs

1) Left-Shot Defenseman: The Coyotes may lack strength at center ice, but their winger group is deep enough to quell any scoring concerns for now. There’s a far more pressing need on the back end, which has largely struggled outside of the J.J. Moser–Sean Durzi pairing. Dumba’s flamed out in the desert, Travis Dermott and Juuso Välimäki are having down seasons, and penalty-kill specialist Josh Brown isn’t suited for an everyday NHL role. Inserting a top-four threat such as Hanifin gives head coach André Tourigny much more flexibility with his pairings and would allow for more puck-moving support outside of Durzi and Moser. 24-year-old call-up Michael Kesselring has done well in his 31 games this year and is inching toward cracking the team’s second pairing on a full-time basis, but he’ll need a better partner than what they have to offer him now if that will convert into a playoff berth.

2) Don’t Sell The Farm Early: While one splash is likely feasible for Armstrong, especially on the blue line given their current roster construction and lack of bona fide top-four prospects, multiple big swings are unwise for a team whose best years are still ahead of them. Their first-round picks are likely more valuable in their hands on draft day than used as fodder in a deadline deal, especially considering help at center ice will come soon with the growth of Logan Cooley and the incoming NHL debut of 2022 11th overall pick Conor Geekie. Things are looking up for the Coyotes (at least on the ice), but there’s still more growth to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.