Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $84,906,199 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Simon Holmstrom (one year, $863K)

After a quiet rookie year, Holmstrom has become a shorthanded scoring specialist this season, being among the league leaders in that department.  Even so, he is primarily deployed in a bottom-six role which will limit his earnings upside.  A bridge deal seems quite likely although he could push his way toward the $1.5MM mark if he can keep up his current pace.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Sebastian Aho ($825K, UFA)
D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1MM, UFA)

After an injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, Clutterbuck has managed to stay healthy this season and play a bigger role than many expected.  Still, he’s 36 with a lot of physical games under his belt.  In theory, he should be looking at a dip in pay but GM Lou Lamoriello has gone to painstaking lengths to keep his fourth line together so it’s hard to rule out the possibility of another deal like this one.  Martin’s injury issues should limit his mark but again, a lower-cost extension heading into his age-35 year is likely an option at least being considered.

Reilly has fared pretty well since coming over on a waiver claim from Florida.  Given his limited NHL time the last couple of seasons though, it’s hard to foresee a big raise coming his way.  Perhaps something closer to $1.5MM if he keeps up his current production in the second half but for him, securing a multi-year agreement might be more of a priority.  Bortuzzo was brought in to cover some minutes in the wake of the injuries on the back end but is likely looking at something near the minimum if he wants to play a 14th NHL season.  Aho has established himself as a regular over the last couple of seasons and showed a bit of offensive upside last year.  That should push him into the $1.5MM range on a multi-year deal; he should have a few suitors on the open market.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Hudson Fasching ($775K, UFA)
F Julien Gauthier ($787.5K, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)

Nelson has had somewhat of a career resurgence in recent years, putting up his best two years in the last two seasons and is hovering near a 70-point pace again this season.  That makes him a bit of a bargain, a thought that didn’t seem as likely when this contract was first signed.  If he can hold this pace over the next year and a half, another small jump could be doable on a shorter-term agreement.

Adding Palmieri made sense to try to add to New York’s offense in 2021 but it’s fair to say that he has underwhelmed on that front since being acquired.  He’s getting paid more at the level of a 45-point player and injuries have stopped him from getting more than 33 in a single season yet.  It’s not a crippling overpayment but he’s going to need to do more if he wants to get this much on the open market in 2025.  Gauthier and Fasching are end-of-roster players that, at this point, appear likely to remain around the minimum salary moving forward.

When the Islanders opted to use their leverage to get Dobson to take a bridge deal, it was one that it looked like he’d outperform fairly quickly.  It’s safe to say that has happened and then some.  After putting up 100 points over the last two seasons, the 24-year-old is now around the point-per-game mark, making him one of the top-scoring blueliners in the NHL.  We know point producers get paid but add his strong two-way play to his output and New York has a player primed for a hefty increase in salary.  At this point, with Dobson having arbitration rights, it’s looking like the question won’t be if he’ll double his current AAV but rather by how much more it’ll go up beyond that.

Romanov was another player who was more or less forced into a bridge contract with their cap situation at the time.  The 24-year-old has been a consistent presence on the second pairing over the last few years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to push him into the higher-paid tier of defenders.  Still, a long-term agreement that buys out some UFA eligibility should go past the $4MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM, UFA)
F Anders Lee ($7MM, UFA)

Lee has been an impactful power forward for most of his time with the Isles but is starting to show signs of slowing down.  He’ll be 36 when this deal is up and his next contract, if there is one, will likely be half of this one or less.  Pageau, meanwhile, has been a steady middle-six center over the past several years although his production has dipped this season as well.  If he’s trending toward being more of a true third liner at this point, this deal will become an overpayment fairly quickly.  He’ll be 34 when this contract is up and he’ll likely be heading for a fair-sized dip in pay as well.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Mathew Barzal ($9.15MM through 2030-31)
F Casey Cizikas ($2.5MM through 2026-27)
F Pierre Engvall ($3MM through 2029-30)
F Bo Horvat ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
D Scott Mayfield ($3.5MM through 2029-30)
D Adam Pelech ($5.75MM through 2028-29)
D Ryan Pulock ($6.15MM through 2029-30)
G Ilya Sorokin ($4MM in 2023-24 $8.25MM from 2024-25 through 2031-32)
G Semyon Varlamov ($2.75MM through 2026-27)

It has taken a long time for Barzal to get back to the offensive level he showed in his rookie year; he hasn’t recorded 20 goals or more than 62 points since then.  That means that this deal carried some significant risk, even though it locked in a core forward for the long haul.  But Barzal has found that extra gear this season after being moved to the wing as he’s now on pace to beat his freshman output.  If that holds up and if he’s able to stay around the 80-point mark consistently, the Isles will get at least a reasonable return on this commitment, even if the value dips a bit since he’s no longer at the more valuable position.  Right now, they’re certainly encouraged by his recent production.

Horvat’s contract will be best known for Lamoriello’s comments to reporters when he said “All I can tell you is it’s too long and it’s too much money”.  This, on a deal he signed not long after acquiring the center.  Horvat got off to a great start with Vancouver to earn this contract but struggled down the stretch, creating some early angst.  However, he has been a lot better this season, hovering around the point-per-game mark.  Like Barzal, this isn’t a contract that’s likely to carry surplus value but as long as he’s in that 80-point range, they’ll do okay with it.

Engvall’s contract is one that made little sense over the summer.  While he fit in well after being acquired from Toronto, a seven-year commitment for a bottom-six forward who never had more than 35 points was risky, to say the league.  The early returns aren’t promising and teams can get themselves into cap trouble with too many of these mid-tier pacts.  Cizikas has been a key energy player for more than a decade now but this feels like a legacy contract that could be problematic at the end.  Right now, he plays more than a fourth liner which gives New York a salvageable return but once that changes, he’ll be a pricey depth piece.

Pelech and Pulock are similar players in similar situations, veterans who are strong in their own end but don’t produce at the level of a typical top-pairing player.  That limits the upside of their contracts but both project to be core blueliners for several more seasons; they’re both currently 29.  Accordingly, their deals won’t be viewed as bargains over the remainder of the term but they should age relatively well.  Like Engvall, Mayfield getting seven years as a depth player raised some eyebrows but if nothing else, he can still handle second pairing minutes when called upon.  As a result, the Isles will get some value for now but as the team gets healthy and he goes to the third pairing, this will be a bit of an overpayment over the long run.

Lamoriello didn’t have much of a choice when it came to signing Sorokin.  The 28-year-old has established himself as one of the premier goalies in the NHL (despite his mediocre numbers this year) and was going to get a big-money, max-term agreement from someone if he made it to unrestricted free agency after this season.  This is definitely on the higher end of the salary scale – especially as more teams pivot toward platoons – but it’s a price they’re justified in paying.

Varlamov, on the other hand, was another head-scratcher.  Yes, he’s an above-average backup and $2.75MM for that is decent value but will that still be the case when he’s 39 which is when this deal ends?  There’s some short-term payoff but this could hurt them a couple of years from now.

Buyouts

G Rick DiPietro ($1.5MM through 2028-29, cap-exempt)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Dobson
Worst Value: Lee

Looking Ahead

The Islanders are one of many teams that will be in a money-in, money-out situation for any moves they look to make leading up to the trade deadline.  They also don’t have a particularly deep prospect pool to work with so Lamoriello will have to get creative to make an impactful addition.  On the other hand, he’s shown himself to be creative before so they can’t be ruled out as a dark horse team on the trade front leading up to March 8th.

Beyond this season, things really get tight.  They already have over $81MM in commitments for 2024-25 with half a dozen roster spots to fill after that.  That number drops to $61.55MM in 2025-26 but at that point, they’ll have more than half a roster to fill with their remaining cap space.  Accordingly, adding players with term is going to be hard to do and New York will likely be looking to move one or two players on multi-year deals out.  In this salary cap environment, that won’t be easy.  Lamoriello has a self-created challenge to work his way through as a result.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.