Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $82,601,228 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Alexander Holtz (two years, $894K)
D Luke Hughes (two years, $925K)
F Dawson Mercer (one year, $894K)
D Simon Nemec (three years, $918K)
G Akira Schmid (one year, $851K)

Potential Bonuses
Holtz: $850K
Hughes: $925K
Mercer: $400K
Nemec: $3.25MM
Schmid: $57.5K
Total: $5.4825MM

Holtz has progressed to the point of being a regular player but it has been in somewhat of a limited role so far.  Basically halfway through his entry-level deal, it seems unlikely that he’ll dramatically improve to the point where he’ll bypass a long-term contract in 2025.  A short-term deal in the $2MM range seems likely while bonus-wise, he’ll need to produce a lot more to have a shot at reaching them.  The same can’t be said for Mercer who has a couple of strong seasons under his belt although his 2023-24 numbers are certainly down.  Nonetheless, GM Tom Fitzgerald may still want to look into a long-term deal that could approach the $6MM mark while a bridge would be a bit more than half of that.  Like Holtz, his bonuses are unlikely to be reached at his current pace.

Hughes did well in limited action down the stretch and in the playoffs last year and has locked down a full-time spot this season, playing top-four minutes.  He’s expected to be a core piece for years to come so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Fitzgerald try to push for a long-term agreement after 2025.  Such a deal could push past the $7MM mark if he produces as expected.  As things stand, he has a chance at hitting a handful of his ‘A’ bonuses, worth $212.5K apiece.  Nemec, meanwhile, was recently brought up and is just getting his feet wet at the NHL level.  He recently went past the nine-game mark, meaning he’ll burn the first year of his deal this season.  It’s too early to forecast his next contract but it’s worth noting that he’s unlikely to reach his bonuses.

As for Schmid, he made a big impact down the stretch last year, taking over as the starter.  Things haven’t gone anywhere near as well this season as he has struggled considerably.  He could still be a goalie of the future for New Jersey but with the inconsistency, he should be heading for a bridge deal that should check in under $2MM.  His bonuses are based on games played so it’s likely he’ll hit some of that amount even though he’s currently in the AHL.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Toffoli ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Michael McLeod ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Chris Tierney ($775K, UFA)

Toffoli wasn’t able to reach an early extension in Calgary and was quickly moved to New Jersey despite coming off of a career year.  He is producing at a similar rate this season and if he can hold that up, he should be one of the better free agent wingers.  Last time in free agency, his market was a bit quieter than expected but he should be able to push past the $5MM mark on a longer-term agreement.  McLeod is on pace for his best offensive season and has been elite at the faceoff dot.  With arbitration eligibility, he could push for $2.5MM or more should it get to a hearing if he remains one of the top faceoff specialists in the NHL and keeps up this level of production.

Nosek had to wait a bit to get this contract, one that was a $750K dip from his last deal.  With this season being injury-plagued so far, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn a raise even with his track record of being an effective fourth line middleman.  Tierney came over in free agency on a two-way deal and has earned a full-time spot on the roster.  Even so, he’s likely to remain around the minimum salary moving forward.

Miller had a quiet year in Dallas last season and the change of scenery hasn’t worked out the greatest; he has dealt with an injury and has been healthy scratched at times as well.  While he has a bit of offensive upside and is a right-shot defender, it’s possible he’s heading for a small dip in salary.  Smith can still hold his own on a third pairing and has shown previously that he can play up front if need be as well.  While he’ll be 35 next month, he could still land a contract close to this price tag.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Kevin Bahl ($1.05MM, RFA)
F Nathan Bastian ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($3.4MM, UFA)

Bastian has been a bit quieter offensively this season compared to his last two years but he is holding down a regular spot on the fourth line.  He’ll be hard-pressed to get any sort of significant raise unless he can get back to his production since starting his second go-round with the franchise.  Lazar is in his first full year with the Devils after being acquired from Vancouver.  He’s a serviceable fourth line center and it’s likely his next deal will come in close to this one.

Bahl is in his first full season and is holding down a regular spot on the third pairing.  It’s unlikely he’ll move up in the lineup too often but even if he just stays in that role, he should get at least a small bump beyond his $1.2MM qualifying offer.

It has been an interesting first half of Vanecek’s contract in New Jersey.  Acquired to take over as the starter in the 2022 offseason, he had the best year of his career, getting into 52 games while posting the lowest GAA of his career (2.45) and the highest save percentage (.911).  And yet, when the playoffs came around, he wasn’t the starter and when he got his chance, he struggled mightily.  That has carried over to his play this season.  Value-wise, Vanecek only needs to be at the level of a good backup to provide value on his deal.  He has been well above that at times and well below it at others.  He’ll need to show some consistently strong performances in the next year and a half to set himself up for a bigger deal in free agency.  If he can, he could push past the $5MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Erik Haula ($3.15MM, UFA)

Haula fit in quite well as an above-average third center last season, resulting in a reasonably-priced extension back in June.  He only has three seasons with more than 40 points under his belt which limited his market in his previous trips through free agency.  If he can stay around that mark in each of these three years, he’ll have a lot more bargaining power next time out.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Jesper Bratt ($7.875MM through 2030-31)
D Dougie Hamilton ($9MM through 2027-28)
F Nico Hischier ($7.25MM through 2026-27)
F Jack Hughes ($8MM through 2029-30)
D John Marino ($4.4MM through 2026-27)
F Timo Meier ($8.8MM through 2030-31)
F Ondrej Palat ($6MM through 2026-27)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($3.4MM through 2027-28)

Some teams have limited long-term commitments.  New Jersey is basically the exact opposite.  Meier was their big addition last season at the trade deadline as an in-prime power forward who had shown quite the scoring touch over his last two seasons with San Jose.  That’s the player they’re paying with this deal.  If Meier can put up around 35 goals and 70 points while continuing to play with a physical edge, he’ll provide at least a reasonable return on this contract.  However, he got off to a quiet start after being acquired and has produced at a slightly lower level this season so it’s fair to say there is some risk associated with this contract.

It took a couple of years but Hughes has established himself as a premier center in the NHL, living up to his number one draft spot.  When he signed, there was some risk as he had yet to break out but now, he’s on a below-market deal that should become even more team-friendly as the cap rises over the next few years.  When Meier was acquired, some wondered if they’d be able to keep Bratt on a long-term deal as well, especially after they could only get a one-year deal done last time out.  He has become a true top winger in recent years and if he stays in that 70-point range (he’s on pace for even more this season), they’ll do well with this contract.

Hischier hasn’t quite had the production that a first overall pick generally does but it’s fair to say he has done quite well in New Jersey and did have an 80-point year last season, his first time getting more than 60.  He has become above-average at the faceoff dot and kills penalties, making him a quality second center.  A player in that role at this price point isn’t a bargain but certainly isn’t an overpayment either.  Palat battled injuries in his first season with the Devils and has struggled offensively this year.  They’re paying him to be a second-line winger but the output simply hasn’t come yet.  As he gets older, this could become a bit of a burdensome contract on their books.

Hamilton was a splashy signing back in 2021 and after a quiet first season, his production took off last year, providing a much better return on this contract.  Eventually, the younger Hughes will start to cut into some of Hamilton’s top offensive minutes though so the back end of this deal might wind up being overpriced.  For now though, as long as he can fill up the scoresheet, they’ll get a reasonable return on this contract.

Marino was brought in from Pittsburgh in the 2022 summer with the hopes that a change of scenery could help him rediscover his rookie-season form.  That hasn’t happened from a production standpoint but he has established himself as a capable top-four piece.  At this price, that’s not a bad contract even without a lot of points.  Siegenthaler, meanwhile, is having a down year but like Marino, has worked his way into being a fixture in the top four at a below-market rate.  That said, they’re expecting more from him and if the struggles continue and he drops on the depth chart, this outlook could change.

Buyouts

G Cory Schneider ($2MM in 2023-24)
F Janne Kuokkanen ($325K in 2023-24)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Salary Cap Recapture

F Ilya Kovalchuk ($250K through 2024-25)

Best Value: J. Hughes
Worst Value: Palat

Looking Ahead

New Jersey has been able to operate outside of LTIR so far this season, giving Fitzgerald some flexibility to work with.  Knowing some bonuses are going to be hit, they’ll want to keep some of their cap space for those to avoid or limit the carryover penalty.  On the other hand, if they have an opportunity to make a big splash at the trade deadline again, having more flexibility than other potential contenders could give them a leg up.  Options are always good at this time of year.

While they have flexibility now, that dries up relatively quickly with all the long-term deals they have on the books.  They have roughly $20MM in cap space for 2024 (pending bonus carryover, if any) but need to fill six to eight roster spots including re-signing or replacing a top-six forward in Toffoli.  And again, with the long-term contracts on their books, there may be a hesitance to do many more of those for a little while.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.