Topics in this edition of the mailbag include players who have overachieved and underachieved relative to expected production, an updated look at the Calder Trophy race, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s column.
rpoabr: How do you solve the Kings?
This is a hard one. I’m a proponent of roster shakeups over coaching changes but doing anything of consequence with this group is going to be difficult. Of their current healthy top six forwards in terms of cap hit, they probably aren’t moving any of them (or can’t, in Pierre-Luc Dubois’ case with his struggles; they wouldn’t get full value if they moved him now). Viktor Arvidsson’s value is down since he hasn’t played this season so he’s not being traded. They only have two other ones making more than $1MM and both of them are under $2MM. That makes it hard to salary match and they’re in a spot where they need to do so.
On the back end, maybe there’s a shakeup move with Vladislav Gavrikov whose shorter-term deal could make a player-for-player swap more palatable. With the right team, perhaps that frees up a bit of money to take a run at another upgrade. But Drew Doughty and Michael Anderson are on long-term pacts and moving the underappreciated Matt Roy probably isn’t going to help. From there, the options make $1MM or less so again, money matching is difficult. Meanwhile, I’m not going to pick on the goaltending, it’s doing well enough under the circumstances.
So, if a Gavrikov trade isn’t palatable, there are three options. Tweak the depth players (try some different fourth liners, for example, to see if one provides a spark as they did with Alex Turcotte yesterday), do nothing, or make a coaching change. Option one doesn’t move the needle much so that isn’t going to solve anything. Anyone who reads these knows how much I don’t enjoy speculating about a coaching change but if you’re of the mindset that this roster needs a shakeup, that’s the one card they can play right now. Until Arvidsson gets back, it might be the only card they can play.
Personally, I don’t think the Kings were as good as they were early nor do I think they’re as bad as they are now. They’re somewhere in the middle as a mid-tier playoff team. That’s basically where I pegged them heading into the season so I’m not really inclined to say they should make a change but if GM Rob Blake decides that something needs to change, that might be the move to make.
PyramidHeadcrab: Who would you say is the most snake-bit player of the season thus far? That is to say, whose underlying stats suggest they should be putting up more points, but are struggling to do so? Inversely, who is the biggest over-performer?
Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk has been at or near the top of this leaderboard all season long but he’s a point-per-game player so it’s hard to call him truly snake-bit. I’m instead going to go with John Tavares in Toronto. Even with his goal yesterday (which snapped a long pointless streak), he’s marked at -13.8 goals above shooting talent, per MoneyPuck. If we pick the simpler stat, his expected goals mark is 27 and he has 13. Shooting percentage-wise, he’s at 7.5% this year versus nearly 13% for his career. If he’s at his expected goals mark, he’s over a point per game and Toronto is probably battling Florida for second in the division over being in a dogfight for a Wild Card spot. The recent struggles have led some to think Tavares is in a steep decline but I’m not sure that’s truly the case.
On the flip side, if we look at the player with the most goals above shooting talent, it’s Sam Reinhart (+8.8). But even if you took those from his goal total, he’s still a point-per-game player so it’s not fair to call him the biggest overachiever. Instead, I’ll go with the one who’s fourth on that list, Chicago’s Jason Dickinson. He’s +8.3 in that category. He has 15 goals on the season. You don’t need to be a math major to see that he’s basically scoring twice as much as the numbers suggest he should. If we look at shooting percentage, he’s at 19%, well beyond anything he has put up before. Considering that he came into the season without a single doubt-digit goal total to his name, I think it’s fair to suggest that he has been an over-performer.
Emoney123: Is Samuel Ersson in the ROY conversation?
Schwa: Would also be interested in a larger look at Calder for this year. With Bedard’s injury – is he still the favorite? Or how do you assess the race at this point?
When this question was first posted, I didn’t think he’d have any sort of chance of being in the discussion. However, with Carter Hart being among those to take an indefinite leave of absence in recent days, it’s Ersson’s net to run with for the second half. If he goes on a hot streak and the Flyers hang onto a top-three spot in the Metropolitan and complete the improbable playoff run, that might get him onto a few writers’ ballots toward the back. But in terms of being a contender for Rookie of the Year? I think that will be a stretch unless he single-handedly wins them a bunch of games and drags them into the playoffs.
Right now, I’d still peg Connor Bedard as the favorite for the Calder Trophy. He’s expected to miss about another four weeks so he still has a chance of getting 60-plus games in. I think that will be enough to stay on the top of most ballots since he should come away with the most points despite playing with a pretty weak group of wingers.
Bedard also benefits from the big market effect, something that isn’t the case for Minnesota’s Brock Faber. There’s an increasingly viable argument to make that the blueliner should be the Calder winner; first-year blueliners aren’t supposed to take over as a team’s top rearguard and play 25 minutes a night but that’s what he’s doing. I think it has largely gone under the radar which will hurt him at voting time.
In a previous mailbag, I had Adam Fantilli as the potential third-place finisher. That still wouldn’t shock me but I’d give Luke Hughes the edge now. Dougie Hamilton’s long-term injury has given Hughes a chance to play a bigger (more offensive role) and the production and confidence are both on an upward trajectory. That said, there’s still a big gap between him and Faber.
HockeyBoz: Did the Red Wings get it right with Lalonde instead of Lambert? Detroit had them one and two, I believe, on their hiring list.
Shocked to see Lambert axed so soon. Islanders have always been a defense-first-type team.
I’m going to respond to the second part first. I was also surprised to see Lane Lambert go that quickly. I know they haven’t been playing particularly well lately but in Lambert’s defense, the Isles don’t exactly have a high-end lineup and they’ve been banged up on the back end. GM Lou Lamoriello might think that’s the case based on the long-term contracts he handed out over the summer but in my book, this is a bubble team playing like a bubble team and they’re on the bubble in the playoff picture. We’ll see if Patrick Roy (another surprising hire) can change their fortunes around but I still expect to see them either just in or just out of a Wild Card spot.
From Detroit’s perspective, if Derek Lalonde and Lambert were the top two choices, then yes, I think GM Steve Yzerman got it right. They’re another bubble team but some of their youngsters have progressed nicely under Lalonde’s tutelage which bodes well for the long term. With some steady goaltending, they could be a playoff team and that’s an outcome I wasn’t expecting heading into the season. Lalonde should get some credit if that happens. Would Lambert have gotten more from this group? It’s hard to say but given that he couldn’t elevate the Isles beyond a bubble team, I can’t sit here and say he’d have done better with Detroit. In that case, I’ll say Lalonde was the right choice.
Gmm8811: Seems like the Hockey Canada sex scandal has been swept under the rug. Has there been any current news?
wreckage: Repercussions of players involved in the TC scandal? I believe in second chances and believe these young men should be given a second chance on their careers, but does the NHL try and set a precedent and ban their eligibility? I think if they’re found guilty, in a court of law, they most definitely should pay the consequences and if rehabilitated should be given the opportunity to re-establish their careers in the league. Will any be given a chance to resume their careers in your opinion, or are they all likely KHL-bound at best?
Since this question came out, there certainly has been some news on this front. The London Police Service announced they anticipate that they will hold a press conference on February 5th and will share further details at that time. Previous reporting has indicated that five players have been told to surrender to the police in London by an unspecified time. In terms of what is 100% certain, that’s about all that can be said. More will be known and can safely be discussed after the anticipated announcement.
As for the possible repercussions, it’s still a bit early to speculate. Will it actually get to court? Will there be a settlement beforehand where they plead to a lesser charge to avoid going to court? Will some players do one option and some do the other? That will go a long way toward determining if the player will have another NHL opportunity or when it may come, not to mention the potential suspension coming from the league that would take the decision out of the teams’ hands in the short term. I want to see what the end result is before making any sort of prediction on whether there will be another NHL opportunity (and when it might come) or if the league attempts to set a new precedent from a disciplinary standpoint.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Errson for Calder took a real hit the last week plus.