10:51 a.m.: Toronto has made the eight-year length and $92MM total value of the contract official, per a team release. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports that approximately $69MM of the deal will be paid out in signing bonuses.
9:00 a.m.: The Maple Leafs have officially completed talks on an eight-year, $11.5MM average annual value extension, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports Monday morning. The contract will carry a full no-movement clause in all eight seasons, running from 2024-25 to 2031-32. TSN’s Chris Johnston was the first to report the NMC inclusion earlier Monday.
Nylander, 27, is now the recipient of the largest total value contract in the Maple Leafs’ 100-plus-year history at $92MM. He will be 36 years old when his mega-deal expires in 2032, making him eligible for unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career as his prime years are assumedly winding down.
This is a landmark deal for a player who’s emerged as undoubtedly their second-most important forward this season. While superstar first-line center Auston Matthews has stolen the show with his 30 goals in just 36 games, Nylander has broken the bank in terms of points. His 21 goals and 33 assists give him 54 points on the year in 37 games, putting him on pace for 120 – shattering last season’s career-high mark of 87.
Nylander’s been viewed as a bona fide top-six winger since he finished sixth place in Calder Trophy voting in 2016-17. However, there have always been external questions surrounding the compete and consistency level of the 2014 eighth-overall pick. Most of those have been quieted in the past 12 months, with Nylander continuing to provide excellent postseason play (despite Toronto’s abbreviated playoff runs), adding in excellent possession metrics and now proving himself as a yearly threat for 40-plus goals.
The leading thought among public opinion will likely be that new GM Brad Treliving shoehorned himself by not signing Nylander to a deal last summer when discussions were reportedly in the $9MM-$10MM AAV range. However, Friedman countered that on this morning’s edition of the 32 Thoughts podcast. He believes that Nylander’s camp has been holding steadfast to a higher number since negotiations began last July, and while he couldn’t confirm that an $11.5MM AAV on an eight-year deal was Nylander’s initial ask, it was close enough to get the deal done once the Leafs arrived at that number.
It’s unlikely the Leafs were comfortable with a $1.5MM jump in value per season based on a 30-game hot streak. Advanced metrics show this run of play from Nylander could very well be sustainable over the first few seasons of the deal, however, making the team’s third $11M+ cap hit on the books next season easier to swallow.
For one, he’s shooting the puck more – likely due to an uptick in ice time this season of around a minute and a half. He’s now shown he’s able to weather more than 20 minutes per game on a routine basis, something the Leafs will rely on him to do as their bevy of high-paying contracts restricts their ability to add depth on offense. Thus, despite his career-high 47-goal pace, Nylander is shooting at a percentage right around his career average (12.9% this season compared to his 12.3% average), and at a shooting percentage lower than three out of the last four seasons. His possession numbers remain quite strong, too, including a 53.4% Corsi share and a 4% relative Corsi share at even strength this year. Put simply, his play this season warrants the box-score numbers he’s produced.
That makes it an incredibly difficult decision to consider parting with Nylander, who’s developed into a core player for Toronto in every sense of the word. He’ll have spent a decade already in the organization next summer, and he’s managed to withstand, at times, a great deal of public criticism from local media and respond with an 18-month span that’s solidified him as a top-five right wing in the league. By keeping him around long-term, the Maple Leafs will get to reap the rewards of their patience.
Whether or not the team’s current construction under the salary cap can lead to a Stanley Cup win is the most pressing question, though, a cry that will become louder with now over 50% of next season’s salary cap devoted to Nylander, Matthews, Mitch Marner and captain John Tavares. In hindsight, that may be a more important metric in assessing this deal’s value rather than Nylander’s individual production over the next eight seasons.
For now, Nylander will be one of the six highest-paid players in the league next season in terms of AAV behind Matthews ($13.25MM), Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM), Oilers superstar Connor McDavid ($12.5MM), Rangers winger Artemi Panarin ($11.64MM), and Penguins blueliner Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM). It’s quite lofty company for Nylander at the beginning of the contract, but his cap hit’s place in those standings will continuously drop as more eight-figure deals get inked with the impending sharp rise of the salary cap’s Upper Limit.
In signing this deal, the Maple Leafs also take the top pending unrestricted free agent of the 2024 class off the board. That title now goes to a group of first-line talents in the Eastern Conference – Penguins first-line mainstay Jake Guentzel, Lightning captain Steven Stamkos, and, amidst a breakout season on pace for 59 goals and 105 points, Panthers winger Sam Reinhart.
Nylander’s full no-movement clause will protect him from any trades, waiver placements, or future expansion drafts over the life of the deal unless he consents. It does not, however, prohibit Toronto from buying out his contract if the last seasons of the deal age poorly.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
And the Maple Leafs continue to bury themselves deeper and deeper. Lol.
surprise Wilf with an anti-Maple Leafs comment.
This contract could be a problem but could also be a steal in just 2 years. If Nylander can be a 90-110 point player, that contract will age very well on the coming years. Hell even if he is the 87 point guy from last year it won’t be bad when the cap hits $92M+. Now that being said, if he morphs back into the 60-80 point guy, it could be a problem especially in those twilight years.
But everyone saying this is a bad contract needs to understand the cap going up like 8M on the next 2-3 years. Also, Toronto just needs to figure out Marner/JT next year. After that JT isn’t getting more than $5M on his next contract (less if he stays on Toronto) and Marner is either getting 11.5 like Nylander or will be gone.
They still have problems now yes, and need some change in player personnel in the future, but there was never a point to sell low on Nylander because of 2 yrs left for Mariner or JT.
Not necessarily anti Leafs, More like pointing out poor management decisions.
It’s not that it’s an overpay. It’s that it’s market value at a point where the Leafs already can’t field a full roster at market value. There is a cap. They have to operate under it.
Exactly. This is great news for other eastern conference teams. This contract will not age well.
The two happiest franchises today are the Leafs and the Flames (I swear to gawd, if I hear one more thing about Huberdeau’s contract…). That said, every team can use a Nylander in a contract year.
The cap won’t go up more than $3M, if it does they will have to up the already punitive escrow payments substantially. Either that or each arena will have to build casinos within them.
That’s the issue. They have a lot of good players.
If you are expecting Marner to take a similar contract to Nylander he will definitely leave for greener pastures. Within 4 years Matthews will be getting closer to $17mil per on his next extension. The issue with Marner is replacing him with a FA that will cost you similar to Nylander (or more).
Marner is the best 200 foot forward the Leafs have.
Except in the playoffs
Not even close.
So within 4 years the Leafs will be looking at about $40+mil per if they keep Marner, Matthews & Nylander long term.
Yep! I have been saying the same thing. I can’t understand the Neanderthal thinking on the part of management. I have no problem letting Nylander walk and with the money saved you can get three players and fill in all the huge holes in the Toronto lineup. The Nylander extension does NOT get them any closer to the ultimate hardware. Far to many eggs in one basket.
Just to play the “Players Taken Before _____ In The Draft” game, here are the 4 players taken just before Nylander in the 2014 draft:
4. Calgary – Sam Bennett (now in Florida)
5. NY Islanders – Michael Dal Colle (plays in Germany)
6. Vancouver – Jake Virtanen (also now playing in Germany)
7. Carolina – Hayden Fleury (in Tampa for league minimum)
Sam bennett is a solid player & even better in playoffs, but I see your point.
I wonder if Nylander’s contract will be the template for Pettersson in Vancouver?
His “prime years” will wind down a long time before age 36; athletic prime is 27-28. Obviously Nylander is an elite, proven, consistent producer, and if I was a Leafs fan and the deal had been for four years, I’d be jumping up and down. Six years from now, he’ll be an aging, fading forward, a relatively untradeable contract, and a millstone around the team’s neck in terms of cap space.
Since I do NOT root for Toronto, I’m down with that.
Toronto loves handing out full NMCs to all. I was surprised to learn marner has one. So nylander was gonna walk without it? No way.
This is a massive mistake. Matthews at 13.5M, Tavares at 10M, and now Nylander at 11.5. That’s $35M on three players. *Yikes*.
I get wanting to keep an elite player, but this is gonna be one of those cap situations that screws this team over for years and years to come. It’s hard enough getting players to sign in Canada due to differences in tax laws – which the NHL really, really needs to address at some point – but having less cap space to pay for good players on a team with a somewhat barren prospect pool…
If the Leafs can’t win a Cup in the near future, it’s gonna be a painful decade in Hogtown.
You are correct!
I looked into it and in canada players get 49.5% after tax, California is the worst us city at 50.3% while Florida and texas are the best at 63%. In canada the is a tax free or taxed much less account sports players put money in to make canada more favorable. About 6 months ago there was a story that CRA was going after Bautista, Donaldson and Martin as they believe they put too much or declared too much for this. Any way i always thought players should take 10-15% less to sign in Florida or texas while clearing about the same money in order to win championships. On a 2M contract its about $255k less you make in canada vs Florida and texas and thats per year, over 3 years that a house for your parents, wifes parents and and cabin. So for Nylander he clears about 1.5M less per year then if he signed in Florida or texas, thats also before paying your agent the 10% or whatever it is and the escrow or anything else. So he likely only takes hime 40% or so of that 11.5M ler year or 4.6M. Thats 6.1 thake home in Florida and Texas
And for those wondering you can google how much are you taxed on 1M in “XYZ” and see the numbers
Good stuff. This is informative!
Tavares contract ends after next season and he’s not getting more than 5M per on his next deal so again this is only a one year issue
That’s if you look strictly at the base tax rate. Thing is though, in all jurisdictions, it’s really easy for the rich to write off and evade taxes, and the American South makes it incredibly easy. It’s a critical problem across North America, but if you told me that there are players in Florida or Tennessee paying $0 in taxes, I would believe you.
This is only a problem in Toronto & Vancouver – by far the two most insecure cities in North America. (Well, maybe Montreal – but they complain about everything no matter how many advantages they get). I get it – people in those cities convince themselves that taxes are the sole reason why people don’t want to live there. And you’re only looking at one part of the tax base – have you seen property taxes in Miami?
Mm. I doubt the adage applies to Canadians nearly so much, but the Economist had a pithy line several years ago to the tune of that Americans are the world champions of demanding expensive services for which they then have no intention of paying.
Interesting calculations except that your analysis is flawed. Players have to file taxes in each state they play in. So leaf players only pay the Canadian rate on games played in Canada. Likewise for florida players, they get their free ride on state taxes only for games played in florida. And don’t forget they still have to file federally for those Florida games. So your analysis is greatly flawed and the tax advantage is greatly overstated.
Leafs should offer up John Tavares for Seth Jones ;)
Tavares only has 2 years left, which isn’t toooooo bad. I thought it was longer. What maniac signed Seth Jones to $9.5M, let alone for a long term contract? Yikes.
Leafs get a Dman & shift part of their allotment of money from the forward group to the Defense group.
I’m just grateful that the Leafs signed Domi, Bertuzzi, And Reaves. This is Toronto’s year! LOL.
& klingberg lol. Terrible!
all 2 years apart from Reaves, and he will be playing for the Marlies like Kyle Clifford
Leafs could use Nylander this season, and trade him after their 1st round exit before his NMC on the new deal kicks in! He still has 22 teams he can be traded to before July 1.
Nylander at 6 six year’s and 8 million per is acceptable, Anything after that let him walk!!!!!
you’re an idiot.
And you’re are welcome!
3 mil salary 8.5 signing bonus July 1 i guess. Im a habs fan but for me they need to figure out if they can get out from JTs last year. Nylander Matthews and Marner are the 3 to keep and they have to figure out how to do that. Unless Matthews wont resign then JT is the 1 who needs to get dealt. Also what people need to realize with the cap going up even 2m per year in 3-4 years this will be 2nd line player money with top 3s getting 15
Even after today’s news this not the best move that Shanahan has made as an executive, The best move he has made in Toronto is wearing his glasses on the end of his nose during photo ops, It gives the illusion that he really know’s what he’s doing.
BTW. PyramidHeadcrab is my absolute favorite all time screen name. Don’t have a clue what it means but it is cool!
I’d like to thank Sid, Geno, Letang, Marc, etc. for all winning before they got paid like they’ve won.
Leafs married to a top heavy , bottom empty roster for many more years. It’s failed to produce a winner in how many years? What’s the definition of insanity ?
So the “signing bonus” is guaranteed money whereas the salary (or whatever the rest is) is… paid per game or something like that? That’s not how it works is it? I’m unclear on this. Playoffs=more games, and surely they’d still get paid on IR… so then it’s a cap/managerial thing.. why?
The Leafs have cash therefore they can afford to pay annual large lump sums of money to players. Nylander gets a big chunk of cash upfront each year which is better than waiting out the whole season to receive 100% of his salary. Plenty of NHL teams are not flush with cash like the Leafs therefore they cannot offer a contract to be structured the same.
Has nothing to do with cap management.
Exactly. And the player can then theoretically invest that money to increase his take. In effect the team should be able to sign said player for a little less than market this way.