Jake Guentzel’s future with the Penguins is one of several questions surrounding the team as they continue to battle to get back into a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The fact he’s a pending unrestricted free agent would seem to expedite the need for extension talks to happen. However, in a recent appearance on the NHL Network (video link), David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period suggests that Guentzel’s camp could opt to wait until the summer before engaging in substantive discussions about a new deal. He adds that there have been no discussions between the two sides so far.
The 29-year-old is in the middle of what could be a career year as he has 18 goals and 25 assists in 37 games so far, a 95-point pace. His previous benchmark was sent in 2021-22 when he collected 84 points in 76 contests. Guentzel has reached the 40-goal mark twice so far in his career and is on pace for 40 this season as well, setting him up quite nicely for a substantial raise on his current $6MM AAV.
One of the elements that could delay Guentzel’s decision is Pittsburgh’s place in the standings. If GM Kyle Dubas decides to embark on any sort of retool or rebuild, it’s possible that could dissuade Guentzel from wanting to extend. Of course, it’s possible that in that scenario, the decision gets taken out of his hands altogether if the Penguins decide to move him altogether by the March 8th trade deadline. What Pittsburgh’s plans are moving forward will obviously go a long way toward determining Guentzel’s level of interest in sticking around.
Assuming the salary cap goes up to the $87.5MM range as anticipated, Pittsburgh should have enough flexibility to make a competitive offer to Guentzel, one that could push past the $9MM mark on a long-term agreement. Considering his value to the team and in a potential trade, it stands to reason that Dubas will at least approach Guentzel’s camp to get a sense of what a new deal might cost. But one way or another, it doesn’t appear as if he’ll be putting pen to paper on an extension anytime soon.
I can’t blame Guentzel, The Penguins roster will become a mess soon. Why would he want to be stuck in a rebuild?
This is one of the most overblown things I see regularly. The Penguins don’t have any huge contracts outside of Karlsson, who is still a top 5 defensemen in the NHL. He should remain a top 10 or so defensemen for the life of the deal and the Pens are only paying him $10 million.
They have a TON of cap space coming up the next two seasons and have been quietly making the roster younger (roster average age is under 30 when healthy). Ruwhedel and Carter’s contracts come off the books after this season as well (ages 33 and 38).
They’ll probably trade Reilly Smith this offseason as well and go out and get younger at Center for the third line possibly as early as this trade deadline (pushing Eller to the fourth line for the last year of his deal).
I keep hearing “the roster will be a mess”, but Malkin, Letang, Rust, Crosby, and Karlsson are all outplaying their cap hits, so they can afford some drop off. Malkin will retire the moment he’s not a legit #2 center anymore and go back to Russia. Crosby and Letang show no signs of slowing down and have games that age well.
If Dubas is as good as he’s supposed to be, the Pens should be able to utilize the cap space and trades to maintain success and avoid much of a rebuild at all. It could all go sideways, but this isn’t a situation where it’s a guaranteed rebuild. The team is still one of the best 5v5 teams in the NHL despite people wanting to write them off before the season.
$8 M x 8. Maybe $8.5.
Guentzel wants to stick around. I bet he gets 8×8.6 to stay below Sid. If they implode completely this season, they may be forced to trade him, but I still think signing is most likely.
I’m a big guentzel fan, this team needs to be torn down and he is the piece to start with.
Huh. Interesting. With Nylander off the market, how many pending UFA forwards have a better resume than Guentzel’s? He’s three years younger than Reinhart, five years younger than Stamkos, ten years younger than Pavelski. You got to think he’s the sort of guy some team will seek to overpay.
So what happens if (justifiably) Guentzel thinks that Pittsburgh isn’t going win anything in the near future, and an up and coming team like (say) Chicago, with $50 MM in projected cap space, dangles TEN million at him?
Guentzel is a year older than Reinhart, not three years younger. I think Guentzel probably re-signs with the Pens before ever hitting free agency, but if the Pens slide in the second half and he might want to move on. I think the Pens would target Reinhart, Stamkos, Teravainen, and Duchene in free-agency. Or trade Smith and try to sign two of them.
Why would Guentzel want to stay in Pittsburgh when the tear down starts?
See my comment to your post above. Why did you repeat yourself?