Dissecting The Sabres’ Disappointing Start

At the beginning of the 2023-24 season, most expected at least one of three rebuilding Atlantic Division squads – the Red Wings, Sabres and Senators – to end their years-long playoff droughts. Popular opinion stated the Sabres were the most likely team to do so after finishing just one point out of a playoff spot in 2022-23.

Fast-forward to the holiday roster freeze, and those three teams have the worst point percentages in the division. The Canadiens were widely expected to finish last in the division but are now fifth in the Atlantic with a .530 points percentage, posting a 5-2-3 record in their past ten games. While Detroit is ahead of Montreal by one point heading into the holiday break, the Canadiens have played one less game.

The Sabres and Senators have the most ground to make up if they want to get back in the race. Both teams are multiple games below the .500 mark, and the Sabres are the league’s 27th-ranked team with a .457 points percentage. Inconsistent play has led some to question if head coach Don Granato and GM Kevyn Adams should remain in their posts as Buffalo aims to end their 12-season playoff drought, the longest in the NHL.

Forget taking a step forward – what’s changed between seasons to guide this year’s iteration of the Sabres to a significantly worse record than last year? The Sabres may have put up some of their best work near the end of last season, but they were in a much better spot at the holiday break with a 16-14-2 record. That would have them within a few wins of occupying a Wild Card spot this year.

Their already subpar defense and goaltending haven’t changed much. Unfortunately, their offense, which finished third in the league last season, has dried up. While they haven’t been as effective at even-strength as last season, the most significant drop-off has been on the power play. They clicked at a 23.4 success rate last season, ninth in the league. This year, they’re producing at a dismal 14.1% rate, 26th in the league.

All eyes point to first-line center Tage Thompson to help get their special teams back to last year’s form. His 20 power-play goals in 2022-23 were tied with the Lightning’s Brayden Point and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad for third in the NHL. Thompson has struggled with injuries this season, but he’s been much less effective even when in the lineup. He has only nine goals through 26 games, only two of them coming on the power play. After producing 1.21 points per game last year, he’s producing at a much more conservative per-game clip of 0.73 in 2023-24.

Some of Thompson’s struggles are luck-based, as he’s shooting 2.4% below his career average. He isn’t shooting the puck as much as last season, though, and his even-strength Corsi share has also stepped back about two percent from last season’s figure. He may still be playing like a first-line center, but not at the elite form he displayed last season. His subtle steps back have rendered the continued development of players like John-Jason Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt, as well as an unexpectedly strong rookie season from 2023 13th-overall pick Zach Benson, ineffective in helping the Sabres return to postseason play.

On the other side of the puck, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power have remained above average in terms of possession control. They’re far from shutdown stalwarts, but they’re also not enough of a liability to be truly to blame for their 29th-ranked defense. In a poor look for Adams, that brunt falls on the team’s two big free-agent additions – Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson. Among full-time Sabres defenders this season, their 47% and 47.4% Corsi shares at even strength are the two worst figures on the team. While Johnson’s $3.25MM cap hit is an easy out, having only signed for one year, the three-year term on Clifton’s $3MM cap hit suddenly looks quite concerning after putting up some great advanced metrics with the Bruins as part of last season’s record-breaking team.

Neither Devon Levi nor Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have been spectacular in the crease, but Levi’s had some strong showings recently and has been slightly above average on the season, stopping 0.3 goals above expected per MoneyPuck. Luukkonen has conceded 5 goals more than expected over the course of his 17 appearances this year, but neither netminder has been poor enough to truly affect the course of the team.

How much a newly healthy Jack Quinn can aid their goal-scoring woes and mediocre power play remains to be seen. Since returning from offseason Achilles surgery, the 22-year-old winger has two goals in three games and looks right at home in a top-six role.

There is still plenty of time for the season to turn around, especially given the mediocre performances of some other Eastern Conference teams like the Lightning, Hurricanes and Devils. Buffalo’s playoff odds remain slim at 14.4% per MoneyPuck at the time of writing, and that figure is the highest out of Montreal, Detroit and Ottawa, surely influenced by their 9-3 drubbing of the Maple Leafs last week.

The focus will remain on Thompson’s production as the team returns from its holiday break. If he can rattle off a point-per-game run for the next while, that should help the Sabres squeak out some more wins and get back on pace for at least a winning record. They’ll need to count on continued development from their youngsters and better defending from their second- and third-pair players to take them the rest of the way.

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