There is no doubt that the Edmonton Oilers have struggled defensively this year, and have struggled to generate much offense outside of their top-six forward group. However, the team has had a uniquely poor start with their goaltending, as the duo of Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell have produced a 5-10-1 record in 16 games played, as well as carrying a .873 SV% and a 3.70 GAA collectively.
Even looking deeper into the numbers of the tandem, according to Hockey Reference, they have generated a -14.0 Goals Saved Above Average, a 3.76 Adjusted Goals Against Average, and a 37.5% Quality Start Percentage.
In any trade to improve their goaltending, the Oilers’ dream scenario would be to include Campbell and his $5MM salary, but with most other teams carrying limited cap space through the season, that option becomes much more improbable.
The most recent comparable to Campbell’s situation would be a June 6th trade between the Columbus Blue Jackets, Los Angeles Kings, and the Philadelphia Flyers. The Kings were able to unload the two-year, $10MM remaining on Calvin Petersen’s contract, as well as the contract of defenseman Sean Walker, but did have to send a prospect, as well as a first-round pick in 2023, and a second-round pick in 2024 to Philadelphia just as a facilitator in the deal.
Essentially, the cost of $5.6MM in cap space for Los Angeles, without acquiring anything of value in return, was a prospect, and two high draft picks. If the Oilers are looking to improve their goaltending in a similar trade, the cost would certainly increase beyond that price.
To set the table, Edmonton does have all three of their first-round picks over the next three seasons, as well as two of their second-round picks (the 2025 selection is owned by the Arizona Coyotes) over the same time. Also, if any acquiring team is willing to buy out Campbell this offseason, they would be on the hook for $10.5MM spread out over the next six seasons.
Now, let’s look at a list of options and work a potential deal around them:
Petr Mrazek – Chicago Blackhawks (one-year, $3.8MM)
Not only would Chicago be able to absorb the contract of Campbell even after a buyout, but Mrazek is quietly having a very productive season even with a poor team in front of him. In 10 games played for the Blackhawks this season, Mrazek has a 4-5-0 record, coupled with a .915 SV% and a 2.89 GAA.
With only one year remaining on his contract, a trade for Mrazek would allow the Oilers to improve their goaltending situation down the stretch while giving them the financial flexibility to pursue a different goaltender in the offseason if they choose to do so.
In order to rid themselves of Campbell’s contract, Edmonton would need to attach their first-round pick in 2024, as well as their second-round pick in 2026, and potentially a third-to-fourth-round selection in either of the next three years simply to acquire Mrazek from the Blackhawks in the first place.
Karel Vejmelka – Arizona Coyotes (two-years, $5.45MM)
Even behind a struggling Coyotes defense for the last three seasons, Vejmelka has put up decent numbers and could benefit from a stronger team in front of him. Over the last three seasons in Arizona, he has played in 112 games and carries a 33-62-11 record coupled with a .899 SV% and a 3.51 GAA.
As the Coyotes are looking to exit their rebuild soon, they may not be inclined to take on Campbell’s contract, or even be inclined to buy him out after acquiring him. However, if the Oilers were willing to part ways with defenseman Cody Ceci in this hypothetical deal, Arizona could be more tempted.
With Matt Dumba, Troy Stecher, and Josh Brown all headed for free agency next summer, the Coyotes are going to have quite the hole on the right side of their defense. Ceci will be signed for one more after this season at $3.25MM and has offered quality defensive play over the course of his career.
Elvis Merzlikins – Columbus Blue Jackets (four-years, $21.6MM)
It’s tough to think of a more direct comparable to Campbell than the situation of Merzlikins over in Columbus. Both goalies are signed for the next four years, they are both coming off of poor 2022-23 seasons, and both have had a tough start to this year.
If Edmonton was able to frame this deal in the right way, it could become a change-of-scenery swap, with the Oilers not having to add too much extra in return. Even from the viewpoint of Columbus, playing in a much smaller market, Campbell may even be able to regain some of his lost confidence.
Unfortunately, there is a very real possibility that Merzlikins will fail to improve Edmonton’s goaltending situation, even after a change of scenery. In a disastrous year in the net for him last season, Merzlikins held a 7-18-2 record, carrying a horrid .876% and a 4.23 GAA.
Jake Allen – Montreal Canadiens (two-years, $7.7MM)
Similar to where the Canadiens are in the rebuild like the Coyotes, it is unreasonable to think Montreal would be inclined to take on the contract of Campbell, even in a buyout situation. With Allen making $3.85MM for this season, and next, Edmonton will once again look to salary match through different positions.
Over the last two seasons, the Canadiens have built up some serious young depth on defense, meaning the Oilers may have to part with some forwards to acquire Allen and his cap hit. Given this, a realistic package would revolve around Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele.
As a pending unrestricted free agent, Foegele will simply be on the Canadiens roster for the rest of the year, and move on next summer. When healthy, McLeod represents a bottom-six center option with the ability to play on both sides of the puck, allowing the Canadiens to comfortably replace Sean Monahan next year, and give them a long-term option on the third-line.
Juuse Saros – Nashville Predators (two-years, $10MM)
At last year’s trade deadline, the Oilers and Predators connected on a massive trade, sending Mattias Ekholm to Edmonton in exchange for a package surrounding Tyson Barrie, a prospect, and two draft picks. In the summer, Nashville showed a few more veterans the door and took a very aggressive approach to free agency.
Sitting at 28th place in the NHL entering Thanksgiving week, and unlikely to contend over the last two years of Saros’ contract, the Predators could be inclined to trade him this season. Saros has gotten off to a slow start this year but has finished top-10 in Vezina Trophy voting in each of the last three years.
Due to his track record, it will take a mammoth offer to pry Saros out of Nashville, and the Oilers would need to give up serious capital in return. If they are also willing to take on the contract of Campbell, a package including a young roster player such as McLeod or Dylan Holloway, one of Edmonton’s better prospects such as Philip Broberg or Xavier Bourgault, Edmonton’s first-round pick in 2024, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 2026 with the ability to turn into a first, that may be enough to get Saros from the Predators.
How many times are the Oilers going to make the same mistake? I’m not an Oilers fan, but even I find this annoying.
Take binnington and we will take campbell and some prospect or pick. Campbell is then either bought out or traded for nothing by the blues. The money is similar. Blues got hofer, and then zherenko is at springfield playing really well. Blues need to lose a goalie.
As much as I agree that Binnington provides an immediate upgrade over Campbell, I’m not sure how inclined the Oilers would be to take on $1MM more each year for a goalie over four years, especially considering McDavid, Drasaitl, and Bouchard contracts are all up within the next three seasons.
Nobody on earth wants Jack Campbell’s contract without multiple 1st round picks and a top prospect. Nobody. 3×5 + this year. Worst goalie contract in hockey..
You say the Blues just trade Campbell for nothing? If this was even a possibility – don’t you think the Oilers would just love to trade Campbell right now for nothing?
5m a yr horrible contracts with 3.5 yrs left don’t get traded for nothing, and with a goalie you can’t just try to hide him on the 4th line!!!! Lol
Mike Smith!
@uvmfiji – No!
-Signed,
Mike Smith
Edmonton’s head coach was fired, but I think their goalie coach is the one who should be ousted. How many otherwise competent goalies have completely fallen apart in Edmonton? Yes, the defence has never been good. But the way goalies fall off a cliff in central Alberta should definitely put some eyes on a goalie coach who’s been there since 2014… Roughly the period in which the disastrous goaltending became the rule and not the exception.
Dustin Schwartz, their goaltending coach, has all the hallmarks of a nepotism hire… Local boy, worked for the Oil Kings WHL franchise, and straight to the NHL after that. Played hockey, but never past the university level.
It’s extremely suspect to me that both your starting goalies can post 0.875 sv% marks are the goalie coach keeps his job. Something stinks in Edmonton.
@PyramidHeadcrab — I said basically the same thing recently. Schwartz has produced results that scream “mediocrity” or worse, unfortunately. The team defensive effort, though, really makes things worse for any of their goalies.
It’s been screamed from the roofs in Edmonton to fire Schwartz. Rumor has it he is married into the Katz family. So many goalies have gotten better outside the Oilers organization and Smith in fact hired his own goalie coach instead of using Schwartz. Should say something.
@wreckage — I was in the middle of a search to find the evidence you suggest about the possibility of an “under the table” type of arrangement between Katz & Schwartz. Conveniently, nothing has surfaced yet, but I’m more inclined to believe your theory about Schwartz being married into the Katz family. One recurring theme, though, was so many sites’ posters screaming about Schwartz keeping his job, with the trail of dismal results. I guess I had forgotten about Mike Smith’s personal goalie coach arrangement, which explains why he wouldn’t have taken any direction from Schwartz. It appears Koskinen just didn’t buy what Dustin was selling. Unless they go on an epic heater, this EDM season has all the makings of a generationally-bad tire fire, which would be a shame.
Interesting point, Pyramid. The Oilers have long been dogged by that inner circle vibe – the old boys club. Time for some new approaches – evolve.
Barry Trotz said earlier this week that he wants to extend Saros. Why would he trade him to Edmonton & take on Campbell in return? Campbell isn’t playing well in the AHL. Why would he help a conference rival? Same goes for the Coyotes. They are playing well & have 7 more points than the Oilers. Why help them? The Oilers put themselves in this situation by the contracts they’ve doled out. Nobody is going to feel sorry for them.
If Nashville trades Saros, they can probably do better than getting Jack Campbell’s contract in return. How many 1st round picks would Edmonton need to include?
Three 1sts at least. Getting a good goalie and giving up a boat anchor contracts
Holland blew it when he wouldn’t give Markstrom what he wanted. We wouldn’t be having this issue right now. He had a chance to get him and Kuzmenko. Kenny got his money and headed for retirement. Bye
Edmonton offered Markstrom more than Calgary did. Markstrom simply just didn’t want to sign in Wdmonton. And Kuzmenko was limited to an entry level contract so the money was the same and he too chose Vancouver over Edmonton. So no, they couldn’t have had those guys. They tried and the guys chose elsewhere.
Edmonton offered the exact same money to Markstrom but 1 year less. Anyone would have taken the extra year
Oilers offered more years. 1M less per. According to majority of the journalists back then. You can still find the articles online. I was wrong in saying Edmonton offered him “more”. They offered him longer term.
That was it. I knew it wasn’t the same offer though :)
Look: the recent history of goalies have indicated that there’s a lot of crap shoot involved. The blazing hot hand that led the Knights to a Cup last year had a cap hit of $2 MM. If I’m going for some “meh” goalie who just hasn’t been doing much and praying he magically develops a hot hand in Edmonton, I’m not going for someone making $4-5 MM.
Why the merry hell would I want to be dealing for Jake Allen, when Sam Montembeault is seven years younger, has a cap hit of $1 MM, and is playing better anyway? Why go for an overpriced Merzlikins, three years removed from his last good season, instead of (say) Eric Comrie? I don’t go to St Louis and try to make a deal for Binnington: I go for Joel Hofer, who’s making league minimum.
Merzlikins is BAD, man… He’s an okay backup, but absolutely not a starter. And he’s incredibly frustrating to watch, because he’ll make an impossible save one minute and then let in a softie the next.
Vejmelka has shown some promise, and he’s relatively cheap for 2 years. That would be the only one on this list I would consider if I were them. Saros is a pipe dream, unless you’re sending RNH back at least
RNH has a NMC after signing a team friendly hometown discount contract to stay in Edmonton.
I think the only team that could or would do a deal is Montreal, but the cost would be at least 2 or even 3 firsts for Jake Allen? That’s assuming Montreal is eating the whole contract. Might be less if Edmonton can retain some salary. Team Connor has some tough choices to make, I LOVE IT. LOL
Hah, I’d rather have Merzlikins than Allen — Allen’s had only one starring season in the last *seven* years. The only sensible reaction to Hughes asking for two (!!) firsts for him would be to point and laugh.
Nah it wouldnt cost edmonton 2 or 3 1sts u guys are delusional at best. Theres not a single goalie in the nhl that has a value of 3 1st round picks. You have to remember throughout history goalie have a very low trade value to begin with.
Having said that taking on campbells contract would cost edmonton dearly yes but at most a 1st rounder, a decent prospect or 2. And a few later picks. And a semi bad c9ntract in return.
If im montreal and i know very well montembeault is my goalie of the “future” id move allen and a kid prospect dman for campbell 1st and top guy like xavier bourgault or lesser dylan holloway. Or
Allen, armia for campbell and bourgault and the oilers get to keep their first.
Oilers get a vet goalie and unload campbell habs get a highly touted top forward prospect from montreal area and unload the dead weight contract of armia
Offer up Bourgault and a third to Minny for Wallstedt.
Oilers seem to think it’s a fair value…
Haven’t seen that anywhere. Oilers at this point want proven ability at the NHL level, not another chance. Otherwise Olivier Rodrigue would be up.
Also, if Wallstedt is so good, why don’t the Wild bring him up to stop their even worse GAA from bleeding so badly?
Probably because Guerin understands windows of contention and knows not to start his clock when the Wild are retooling.
As opposed to say, having the two best players in the world in their prime spinning their wheels into oblivion during your peak window of contention because you’ve never once had a real plan for your netminding.
Kochetov, Teravainen and Pesce for Skinner and Nugent-Hopkins.
Carolina is not doing that. And RNH has a full NMC.
With the Penguins Hellburg playing well as a backup, why not try to swing a trade for Ned. When he gets hot he is good. He hasn’t found consistency, but I’d bet the Pens and Oilers could swing a deal.
Yes I know Hellburg was sent down and Ned’s history.
Hell, there’s another possibility. Jaro Halak’s up for grabs for NOTHING, and I doubt he’d ask for more than $1 MM. What does Edmonton have to lose?
Well the Hawks need more draft picks like I need a hernia. But still if Mrazek continues his nice play he’ll bring back a decent return at the deadline. I suppose Davidson would take draft picks but maybe he has players in mind. One thing he doesn’t want is a long time bad Goalie contract like Campbell. The Hawks can eat half of Mrazeks salary easy and a contender who needs a short term Goalie will trade a high pick for a cheap contract. A lot still has to happen still like he has to stay healthy and keep playing well. But he’s been pretty darn good so far. And the Hawks young D-Men leave their Goalies hanging a lot. Johnson too.
What contenders at the deadline will require a goalie? Reason the Oilers are looking for one now is because they’re supposed to be contenders, but they aren’t because their goaltending is non-existant. You would get more from Edmonton now, than another team at the deadline. This is Edmontons deadline.
That depends on injuries, Just like it does every year. A Goalie gets hurt, Goes on LTIR and Voila, They need a Goalie.
Oilers are what happens when hire five bad GM”s in a row . Kevin lowe ? Craig McTavish LOL. Even Glen sather lived off first few years. Once he had to Replace gretzky etc. downhill. He won nothing in New York with money. His excuse why stopped winning in edmonton..
Hope McDavid/Draisaitl love Edmonton and money more then winning. Or time to move on.
All of these goalies with the exception of Saros, have the same Jack Campbell Feel. I agree with Nha if I’m taking a swing I’m sure not taking another 4-5million dollar swing. Saros would be amazing but that’s simply foolish talk. What team gives up a vezina calibre goalie? You’d have to, dare I say it, include McDavid Or Draisaitl in my opinion. Is it possible, sure, but so is it possible Campbell turns back to his first Toronto season (HA!) Take a low price swing and get rid of that Goalie Coach. Heck throw Erne in net im sure he’s as good as Campbell or that Soccer Goalie who played in the English League!
MAF won the 2021 Vezina in Vegas and was traded to Chicago months later
I’d stick with Campbell. Even if he keeps playing in the minors. It’s just too much to give up to get his contract moved. You always can replace him year-by-year by some journeyman you claim off waivers.
Goalies are voodoo. There are only a handful goalies in the world who you can expect to be at least above-average every season. Acquiring one of those just won’t happen, they’re not available.
Last season’s Golden Knights, Avalanche and Kings did very well with goalies who were described as “sub-par” pre season.