The Buffalo Sabres kicked off the week by announcing a highly anticipated eight-year extension with star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The long-term deal will begin in the 2024-25 season and will carry run until 2032. The Sabres have now locked up a core piece of their back end through the bulk of his prime as Dahlin will be 32 years old when this extension expires. Early indications are that the deal will carry an $11MM AAV.
The $88MM extension will be tied for the second-highest cap hit among defensemen with Los Angeles Kings defender Drew Doughty. Their salary cap hits trail only Erik Karlsson and his $11.5MM price tag. It’s a big price to pay for the Sabres as it puts Dahlin into another salary stratosphere alongside two defensemen who have arguably failed to live up to their large salaries. The key difference between Doughty/Karlsson and Dahlin is that the Sabres are locking up the 23-year-old through his entire prime. While Doughty and Karlsson are still terrific players, they were paid largely for past performances.
Dahlin had a career year last season posting 15 goals and 58 assists in 78 games all while logging 25:48 of ice time a night. He finished fifth among NHL defensemen with 73 points, one of the highest scoring rankings ever by a Sabres defenseman. On the defensive side of things, the 2018 first-overall pick finished second on the Sabres in hits and led the team in blocked shots, a testament to his improved defensive capabilities that finally seem to be catching up to his elite offensive ability.
Many skeptics will point to the $11MM AAV and call the deal an overpay for the Sabres, and at first glance, it does seem steep. The closest comparable to Dahlin’s deal would be Charlie McAvoy’s eight-year deal with a $9.5MM cap hit that was signed in October 2021, or the eight-year deal that Mikhail Sergachev signed in July 2022 that carries an $8.5MM cap number. Those deals, while both massive bargains today, were signed at a time when the offensive upside of both players was more of an unknown. Prior to signing his eight-year deal, Sergachev had topped 40 points only once in his career, while McAvoy had never topped 32 points when he signed his long-term extension. Dahlin is in a different category as he has averaged well over 40 points a season and is now rounding into form defensively.
Critics might also point to Jake Sanderson’s recent extension for $8MM per year with the Ottawa Senators, but again the context is important to understand Dahlin’s deal. Sanderson has one season of NHL experience, while Dahlin has five. Sanderson posted 32 points last season, while Dahlin has routinely posted over 40 points a season. Dahlin’s contract is also buying out more unrestricted free-agent seasons, which typically cost more than restricted free-agent seasons.
With Dahlin’s long-rumored extension finally complete, Dahlin now joins Dylan Cozens, Tage Thompson, and fellow defenseman Mattias Samuelsson – all of whom signed long-term extensions since the start of last season. The Sabres are expected to compete for a playoff spot this season as they finally emerge from a long rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
I hope Buffalo are getting the Dahlin from the last couple years and not the couple before that. Funny to think at one point people were like, “This dude is a bust, time to move on.”
Then they changed the coach. All the difference in the world.
He played as a 18yo rookie. The Dahlin that you started to see last season is the one that you will be getting + improvements going forward.
Buffalo joining the TOR movement. You don’t win cups paying 8 digit salaries…
Eichel and Vegas broke thru the $10M player barrier to winning the Cup.
No longer a factor unless you have 3 or more players signed to 8 digit contract!
Fair enough logic. For now I’m holding that as an anomaly. A few more cases will convince me. There are dozens of cases with teams carrying 8 digit salaries not getting close. One contrary doesn’t sway the whole system for me.
Buffalo doing the Toronto movement?
Skinner was signed under JBott & his cap hit has 4 more years left ($9mil per) but under Granato he has become a point per game forward. Now let’s look at GMKA & his long term extensions-
Tage- 7yrs at $7.1mil per
Cozens- 7yrs at $7.1mil per
Samuelson- 7yrs at $4.3mil per
Dahlin- 8yrs at $11mil per
Once Skinner’s deal expires Buffalo can use his cap hit to extend 1 or 2 players.
Victor, Okposo, Jost, Comrie & Grigs deals expire after this season freeing up $13.5 million of cap space.
Buffalo does not have 3 players currently making over $11 million per like Toronto currently has.
Buffalo just signed a player to an 8 figure salary. They will still need to sign Power and others in the coming years. TOR only paid one player 8 digits at one point. That set the market for their peers and look where it got them. But sure, take the today view and not the 5 year view if it helps you sleep at night.
Think of it this way-
Buffalo has their top 4 players signed long term for under $30 million per.
Or… you could not include 3 developing player salaries to help dilute the Dahlin contract…
Homer gunna Homer, I guess. Honestly I hope it works for Buffalo. You guys have had enough misery. After all the positive steps lately, I think this is the first misstep.
Other GM kn the league will be trill with this contract, all the players agent are going crazy with anticipation for their D man next contracts ( Carolina especially).
Its steep today but at this time in 2 years when the cap goes up 4-6 million its going to look alot better, those other big deal were signed 3-5 years back so its mor in line with what sergachev percent wise. Still a risky move but could pay off huge as 10-12 mil per deal start becoming what 5-7 was 6-8 years ago
Rangers and Avs ownership both the winners from this…Dahlin 23 making 11mil vs Makar and Fox both 24 making 9mil (Dahlin 8 more years. Makar 4 more years. Fox 6 more years)
Fox & Makar will be getting more money than Dahlin when they are up for extensions by then. Sabres could move on from Dahlin when his deal expires & he is 32yo.
That’s crazy money, Power will need to get paid too.