PHR Mailbag: Pinto, Trades, Connor, Kane, Sullivan, Value Contracts, Brochu, Uniforms

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Shane Pinto situation in Ottawa, how Patrick Kane could return to the Rangers, Mike Sullivan’s future in Pittsburgh, and much more.

Black Ace57: When do the Senators finally solve this Pinto contract issue? How much further into the season is it reasonable to drag this out?

Well, this certainly took an unexpected turn after this question was posted, didn’t it?  With Pinto now out for the first 41 games of the season due to his suspension, he’s not eligible to return until January 21st and it appears as if the usual December 1st signing deadline won’t apply here.  With Ottawa not wanting to carry dead cap money by having a suspended player on its roster, it stands to reason now that they won’t want to register the contract until as close to January 21st as possible.  At that point, it could very well be a minimum-salary deal as they’re no longer required to pay the value of his $874K qualifying offer; that requirement ended when the offer lapsed in July.

Honestly, I’m bewildered by this whole situation.  The suspension was out of nowhere but I’m also quite surprised that things got to this point with him being unsigned.  GM Pierre Dorion knew the cap bind he was putting himself in when he signed Vladimir Tarasenko; how was there not a plan to deal with that?  In the end, he’s going to get bailed out since Pinto’s midseason deal will be low enough that the cap implications should be minimal as it shouldn’t cost more (or much more) than the player whose spot he’d be taking on the roster.  But this was not well handled on their end.

For me, the big takeaway here is that the strategy of ‘deal with the cap later’ when trying to add a player, one that is seemingly popular with the fans, has gotten a whole lot more difficult to execute.  Accordingly, teams will need to keep that in the back of their mind next summer, even with the expected increase to the salary cap.

Bradley B: Based on the first few games, do you see any teams making an early trade?

I’d love to say Edmonton based on how poorly they’ve started but their cap situation makes that next to impossible.  They could swap out a minimum-salaried player for another one but that’s not going to move the needle very much.  But there are a few others that I think could be looking to do something.

Calgary has underwhelmed thus far.  Yes, they were a non-playoff team last season but expectations were that they’d be better after the offseason coaching change.  They’re also capped out but with some higher-salaried expiring deals, especially on the back end, they might have the chips to make a player-for-player swap to shake things up.  Daniel Vladar has been a speculative trade candidate but he hasn’t started the year well which can’t help his value.

Washington is another one to keep an eye on.  They’re in LTIR and Max Pacioretty and Joel Edmundson should be back at some point next month.  At that point, their cap situation will force their hand, barring further injury.  Anthony Mantha, on a big expiring deal himself, seems to be the speculative option to move and frankly, he’s someone that could benefit from a change of scenery.

Seattle is a wild card.  They’ve had some bad luck on the offensive end with a pretty low shooting percentage that is bound to improve but they’re now without Andre Burakovsky for a while.  They have a bit of money to play with (not a ton, mind you) so I could see them trying to add a piece and could use Chris Driedger’s expiring contract as an offset.

There’s a reason I’ve been talking about teams that should be looking to make a move sooner than later which isn’t exactly what you asked.  But because so many teams are capped out, I don’t see there being a whole lot of trade action in the near future.  That’s not a fun answer though so these are the teams I think would like to do something that I’ll be keeping an eye on.

gowings2008: This hasn’t been talked about much, but do you think it’s possible that Kyle Connor gets traded to Detroit? He’s from there (also lives there over the summer) and has multiple friends and former teammates on the team. Plus, there’s definitely a hole next to his buddies Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher on the second line. Seems like this makes too much sense not to happen at some point.

It makes a lot of sense for the Red Wings.  I’m not sold on the why for Winnipeg, however.

This is a team that just paid big bucks on long-term extensions for Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck.  They have an owner who told TSN’s Darren Dreger just this week that a rebuild is something he wants no part of.  With that in mind, why would they then turn around and move their top winger?  They’d have to get a significant long-term core piece in return that can also help them now and frankly, there isn’t a fit that makes a lot of sense.  Futures aren’t the currency the Jets will want to deal in at the moment.

Connor has two years left on his contract after this one.  If, in the final season of the deal (2025-26), Winnipeg finds themselves out of the mix near the trade deadline, then things might be a bit different.  If Connor was to express a willingness to sign an early extension if he was traded to Detroit, then that’s a scenario where this idea could be plausible and at that time, perhaps a futures-based return is more viable.  But even with that, Connor to Detroit is nowhere near the point of making too much sense not to happen eventually.  Very few players (if any) are in that type of situation where a move to a specific team is a lock at some point.

jchancel: “If” the New York Rangers were interested in re-signing Patrick Kane, who would they move out in order for that to happen?

There are two different scenarios for any hypothetical return for Kane with the Rangers (and I think the interest is legitimate).  The first is that he decides to ring-chase and decides to sign a team-friendly one-year deal around the $1MM range pro-rated.  That gives him the most options as most contending teams can fit that contract in.  In that scenario, they can basically just waive one of Jimmy Vesey or Tyler Pitlick and call it a day.  Kane, meanwhile, has a bounce-back year and turns that into a multi-year agreement next summer.  That’s the best-case scenario.

The other, obviously, is that Kane has enough of a market to command a multi-year deal at market rate.  I’m skeptical that the Rangers could free up enough money in that situation.  Barclay Goodrow and his $3.671MM cap hit is the obvious pick but with four years left, is there a viable market for him?  Even the teams that are open to taking on a contract might balk at the term.  Anything below that doesn’t move the needle in terms of making the money work and anyone making more almost certainly isn’t getting moved.

If the Rangers have any chance of bringing Kane back, they need him to be more focused on maximizing his 2024 offseason earning potential than his 2023 season possible money.  If that’s the case, I think they’ll have a real chance at re-signing him.

One More JAGR: When is Sullivan finally going to get the axe? Different season, same issues plague this Penguins team. Window is closing every year, now it’s cracked almost closed IMO. Most of the players who have played under his watch and since been released have done better on other teams. That tells me it’s a coaching issue. I realize there’s not many coaches available right now, but two years ago when they should’ve pulled the trigger there were. He’s lost the locker room, his system is ineffective. Midseason or end of season, does he get axed?

You don’t need me to tell you how highly Mike Sullivan is viewed at the ownership level.  There is certainly some symmetry between how he sees things and how ownership does.  That buys him a long leash to work with.

That said, if you’re looking for something to hang your hat on, Kyle Dubas just got handed the keys to the castle, so to speak.  A seven-year commitment for a GM is practically unheard of; that’s how much confidence and trust they have in him.  If Dubas goes to FSG and says that he wants to make a change, would they really say no to the executive who has six-plus seasons left on his contract?  That’d make for a tough situation for all parties involved.

I’m always leery of openly discussing the possibility of someone losing their job.  It’s part of the business but it’s not the most fun to speculate about.  But there is no long-term connection between Dubas and Sullivan.  If Dubas decides that Sullivan isn’t the right fit for this team, midseason or offseason, I think he will have the green light to pull the trigger.  It’s too early to predict if Pittsburgh’s season will be a struggle to the point where this move could be considered so I can’t sit here and state with any sort of confidence if I think it’ll actually happen.

Grocery Stick: I really like PHR’s Salary Cap Deep Dive series. Thanks for that! You included a “best value contract” category there for every team, and it could be fun to have a top 5 list of best value (non-entry-level) contracts NHL-wide.

Glad you enjoy the series.  I’ll get to covering the remaining teams over the next month or two.  I haven’t broken down each team yet so it’s possible that there’s an obvious one I’m missing but here’s a quick list plus a couple of ‘just missed the cuts’ picks.  I’m looking at this season only, not factoring in long-term surplus value as some of the best value lists elsewhere do.

1) Brandon Hagel (TB, $1.5MM) – He had 25 goals in the first year of the contract and 30 last year in the second season.  He’s on pace for over 40 in the early going this season and is making that long-term extension look pretty good already.  Any time you can get top-line production for the cost of what some teams pay their fourth liners, it’s a big bargain.

2) Thomas Novak (NSH, $800K) – He came up partway through last season and produced like a low-end number one center to the surprise of probably everyone.  This year, he has picked up where he left off.  He makes $25K above the league minimum.  If this keeps up, he’ll be making four times this much a year from now, if not more.

3) Devon Toews (COL, $4MM) – Coming off back-to-back 50-point seasons while logging over 25 minutes a game.  I thought he’d get more than $7.25MM on an extension as the players who produce and play that much typically get more than that.

4) Blake Wheeler (NYR, $800K) – I’m largely working off last season with these rankings so I’m not factoring in his tough start here.  He’s on the decline but when healthy, he has produced at a 72-point per 82-game clip over the last four seasons combined.  Even with a dip in output, this should be a very team-friendly deal.  I expect he will rebound in the weeks to come.

5) Taylor Raddysh (CHI, $758.3K) – A 20-goal scorer last season with the lowest cap hit in the entire league, one that’s below the league minimum.  Feels like someone in that situation has to be on this list somewhere, doesn’t it?

Honorable Mentions: Joe Pavelski (DAL, $3.5MM) – The veteran has flirted with the point-per-game mark in each of the last three seasons while being an all-situations player who also wins faceoffs at an above-average rate.  At 39, the age is a risk factor but I’m not betting against him.  Even with a small step back output-wise, this is well below market value.

Stefan Noesen (CAR, $762.5K) – He was one of the best value players last season in terms of a cost-per-point standpoint.  This season, he’s off to an even better start.  Not bad for a deal that’s under the league minimum.  The fact he’s a journeyman with a weaker track record puts him here instead of higher but the value is still quite good.

Pyramid Headcrab: Any word on NHL interest in Brett Brochu? I’ve seen him play a few times here in London, and I’m kinda surprised he’s gone undrafted. I know goalies are hard to project, but worse goalies than Brochu get drafted all the time. I’d appreciate some insight into how goalies are scouted and what scouts are looking for, if the crew has any.

I think there are two things that work against Brochu.  The first is his size; at 6’0, he’s a few inches smaller than the typical frame that teams want to see now.  It’s not that smaller goalies can’t play in the NHL – there are a few every year – but it’s the taller ones that tend to have the late-round dart throws used on them.

The second is that he played for London.  Were the Knights successful because of how well he played or was Brochu so successful because of the quality of the team in front of him?  London typically is one of the stronger, bigger-market programs in major junior with a proven ability to attract some top talent.  For scouting for skaters, playing for London helps.  I think for goalies, it might actually hurt them.

As for what scouts look for, technique matters a lot.  Pretty much everyone plays the butterfly style so they have to dig deeper.  Can they track the puck well; are they making the right quick adjustments to see through the screen?  Puck control (including puck handling and rebounds, plus off blocker and glove saves) is high on the list.  Even though goalies are largely stationary within their crease, skating still matters (quickness and strength).  But generally speaking, size and athleticism are going to draw the eyes of the scouts and those are areas that Brochu isn’t as strong in.  That’s why he’ll be working his way up from the ECHL level.

Ripper Magoo: With the possibility of two new expansion teams within the next few years, what are some interesting/unique color schemes you think could be used?

I think Seattle nailed it. When I look at their blue jerseys, I can almost smell the ocean air.

This feels like an unofficial question of ‘Can you remember all the various color schemes around the league between their regular and third jerseys’?  (That’s a harder question than you might think, by the way, given how frequently some teams change those around.)

We don’t have a lot of orange in the NHL now.  Perhaps a purple base with orange, similar to the NBA’s Phoenix Suns, could be an option?  (I think an orange base isn’t happening).  Similarly, maroon and orange like Virginia Tech also works.

There isn’t a lot of gray in the NHL anymore so there could be something there.  That with black trim and a neon-type of lettering would be a combination of something that stands out with something traditional.  Maybe maroon with black trim and a duller gold lettering?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.