Summer Synopsis: Edmonton Oilers

In back-to-back seasons, the Edmonton Oilers have been eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions. In 2022, the team fell via an Artturi Lehkonen overtime winner in Game Four of the Western Conference Final against the Colorado Avalanche. Last season, the Oilers were eliminated by Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round. Entering 2023-24, the goal for the Oilers is clear: they want to be the eventual Stanley Cup champion doing the eliminating. To get there, their team needs to provide enough support for twin franchise pillars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to succeed. Whether they’ve done so is still up for debate.

Draft

2-56: D Beau Akey, Barrie (OHL)
6-184: G Nathaniel Day, Flint (OHL)
7-216: F Matt Copponi, Merrimack (NCAA)

The Oilers have gone all-in in recent seasons, and the result of their efforts to add established NHL talent has been the depletion of their reserves of draft choices, especially for the 2023 draft. The team only had three selections in this most recent draft class, so while the level of talent they received from a quantity and quality perspective is hardly overwhelming, it’s hard to argue with their strategy for each of the three choices.

In Akey, the Oilers selected a widely respected right-shot defenseman from the OHL with some puck-moving ability. Most reports are optimistic that he’ll have a long career as an NHL defenseman on a second or third pairing.

In Day, the Oilers effectively bought a lottery ticket on an OHL netminder who took an increased role with the Firebirds in 2022-23. And with their last pick the Oilers selected Copponi, an overage American pivot who plays a professional two-way game and saw his offense jump from just nine points last season to 29 in 2022-23.

Trade Acquisitions

F Jayden Grubbe (from New York Rangers)

While this acquisition technically came in May, it does mark the only Oilers trade since the 2022-23 deadline that saw an incoming player arrive in Edmonton. Grubbe is a rangy six-foot-three center who was picked 65th overall by New York at the 2021 draft.

Despite his offense finally clicking in his final WHL season (he went from 35 points in 2021-22 to 67 in 2022-23) Grubbe likely wasn’t going to end up tendered an entry-level contract by the Rangers, so rather than potentially waiting and attempting to select Grubbe had he re-entered the draft, the Oilers simply sent the pick they may have spent to draft Grubbe to secure his rights a little earlier.

The unexpected retirement of Noah Philp, who scored 19 goals and 37 points for the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors last season, left a void in a middle-six center spot for the Oilers’ AHL affiliate. Adding Grubbe gives the Oilers a player to fill that role and a toolsy prospect for their development team to get to work with.

Key UFA Signings

F Connor Brown (one year, $775k with bonuses)
F Lane Pederson (two years, $1.55MM)
F Drake Caggiula (two years, $1.55MM)*
D Ben Gleason (two years, $1.55MM)*

*denotes a two-way contract

The Oilers have precious little cap space to work with, and that dearth of financial flexibility significantly impacted their ability to add outside talent this summer.

The most significant add is of Brown, who the Oilers were able to afford likely due to the uncertainty injected into his profile by the season-ending injury he suffered early in 2022-23.

Brown, 29, is a quality two-way winger and should he get back up to speed quickly could line himself up to cash in handsomely with a good year in Edmonton. He played with McDavid in the OHL for the Erie Otters and has scored at or above a 40-point pace for the last three seasons.

The additions of Pederson, Caggiula, and Gleason were all about bolstering organizational depth. Pederson is likely to be the team’s spare forward on his affordable $775k cap hit, while Caggiula will play an important top-six role in Bakersfield after scoring 53 points in the AHL last season.

The same can be said for Gleason, a 25-year-old blueliner who scored 33 points for the Texas Stars last season and will likely slot into the Condors’ top four on defense.

Key RFA Re-Signings

D Evan Bouchard (two years, $7.8MM)
F Ryan McLeod (two years, $4.2MM)
F Raphaël Lavoie (one year, $874k)*

*denotes a two-way contract

Bouchard is the biggest name here, and the signing of the most consequence from this summer for GM Ken Holland.

Bouchard, 23, has been a revelation on the Oilers’ powerplay since assuming the top defensive role on that unit, and his points totals are a reflection of that.

He scored 40 points in the regular season but his real breakout came in the playoffs, where he scored a stunning 17 points in just 12 games from the blueline.

While the Oilers undoubtedly would have liked to lock up Bouchard for as long as possible, that simply was not going to be possible given the Oilers’ cap situation.

So instead they land Bouchard on an affordable two-year bridge deal that he should begin providing surplus value on as soon as this fall.

As for McLeod, he’s grown into a competent bottom-six enter in Edmonton and was rewarded for posting 11 goals and 23 points last season with a $2.1MM AAV.

Lavoie, 22, was a 2019 second-round pick who has finally put his game together at the AHL level and is knocking on the door of full-time NHL duty in Edmonton. Lavoie’s one-year extension sets up 2023-24 as a massive year for his future with the Oilers.

Key Departures

F Nick Bjugstad (Arizona, two years $4.2MM)

The only free agent departure of much consequence for the Oilers is the loss of Bjugstad, who Edmonton acquired at the 2023 trade deadline. Bjugstad was asked to do too much in Edmonton and only scored three points in 12 playoff games, though his two-way game did keep him in a regular role in coach Jay Woodcroft’s lineup throughout the postseason.

The Oilers will miss having the rangy six-foot-six veteran center in their lineup but if Lavoie can seize an NHL job this fall his arrival soften that blow.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Oilers are one of the many NHL teams walking a salary cap tightrope. The Jack Campbell contract is a major drag on their books due to his regression, but Stuart Skinner’s surplus value provided from his $2.6MM cap hit more than makes up for that.

The Oilers have their fair share of pricey contracts, but they have quite a few players who are outperforming their cap hits (McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard) which makes things easier. The cap rising will provide the Oilers with some much-needed breathing room next summer, but for this upcoming season things will be tight and the club will likely struggle to field a full 23-man roster.

Key Questions

Will the Oilers be able to make any major in-season additions?: The Oilers aforementioned lack of trade assets and cap space puts the club in a bind for 2023-24. They have to do everything possible to surround McDavid and Draisaitl with as much talent as possible, but without a strong crop of prospects to trade from, and already missing second and third-round picks from upcoming drafts, will the Oilers have the assets or cap space to make any significant moves?

Will the Oilers’ goaltending be good enough?: Skinner was certainly exceptional as a rookie, but his track record is relatively thin at the NHL level. Campbell, on the other hand, has a more extensive resume of NHL success but struggled to an extreme degree in 2022-23. Will either of those netminders be good enough for the Oilers to win a Stanley Cup? Or will it be back to the drawing board once again next summer?

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.