Summer Synopsis: Dallas Stars

Over the last four seasons, the Dallas Stars have had a tumultuous run in the Western Conference. Now four years ago, the team made a run to the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals, only to miss the playoffs entirely in the shortened 2020-21 season. The year after, the Stars would barely reach the playoffs, clinching the second wild-card spot. Rebounding nicely, Dallas would return to the Western Conference Finals in the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs, earning big series wins against the Minnesota Wild and Seattle Kraken, losing to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion, the Vegas Golden Knights.

With limited cap space this summer, the team had little finances to work with to notably improve the club, but many would argue they did the absolute best with what they had available to them. Carrying young stars such as Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz on their roster, mixed with veterans such as Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Joe Pavelski, the Stars are poised to once again reach solid playoff positioning, and may even be an under-the-radar team to fully contend for the Stanley Cup.

Draft

2-61: D Tristan Bertucci, Flint (OHL)
3-79: F Brad Gardiner, Ottawa (OHL)
4-125: D Aram Minnetian, USNTDP (USHL)
5-157: G Arno Tiefensee, Adler Mannheim (DEL)
6-189: F Angus MacDonell, Mississauga (OHL)
7-221: F Sebastian Bradshaw, Elite Hockey Academy (AYHL)

Thanks to the trade that landed Nils Lundkvist in Texas, the Stars were without their first-round pick for the 2023 NHL Draft. Their first selection in Bertucci falls under the umbrella of ’the rich getting richer’. Last season, although having standout goaltender Jake Oettinger between the pipes, Dallas employed one of the best defensive cores in the league. By almost every metric, the team excelled in keeping the puck out of the net, and with Bertucci being the strong shutdown defender he is, he should see his game translate very well to the Stars’ style of play.

The most under-the-radar selection by the team would be their sixth-round pick in MacDonell. At the OHL trade deadline, MacDonell was acquired by the Mississauga Steelheads from the Sarnia Sting, where he would score 17 goals and 7 assists in 31 games after the move. More importantly; however, is that MacDonell proved to be an exceptional player in clutch situations. In six OHL playoff games for the Steelheads, MacDonell would score three goals and two assists, as well as scoring one goal and four assists in seven games for the Canadian U18 National Team during the 2023 World Junior Championships.

Key UFA Signings

D Gavin Bayreuther (one year, $775K)
F Matt Duchene (one year, $3MM)
D Derrick Pouliot (one year, $775K)*
F Craig Smith (one year, $1MM)
F Sam Steel (one year, $850K)

*-denotes two-way contract

Far and away the biggest addition to the Stars roster comes in adding Duchene to a one-year deal this summer. Given that Dallas’ first line is largely set, Duchene should factor in nicely to the team’s second line. Only scoring 56 points as a top forward for the Nashville Predators during the 2022-23 season, Duchene is only one year removed from a 44-goal, 86-point performance. Given the team’s performance in Nashville last season, most of Duchene’s performance stats did drop, but only subtly. Given this, Duchene should rebound nicely, especially with more talent surrounding him in Dallas.

Steel represents one of the more interesting free-agent additions this offseason. He had the best season of his career last year in Minnesota, scoring 10 goals and 18 assists in 65 games played, but it is difficult to see where exactly he fits in Dallas’ lineup. He did carry solid possession numbers last year for the Wild, but aside from that, does not impress much in the way of defensive metrics, meaning he may not be a solid option for a bottom-six role in the Stars’ roster. He could factor into the mix given an injury to the team’s middle-six, but Steel appears destined for an extra forward spot this upcoming season.

Key RFA Signings

F Nicholas Caamano (one-year, $775K)*
F Riley Damiani (one-year, $775K)*
F Ty Dellandrea (one-year, $900K)
F Scott Reedy (one-year, $775K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

After a couple of seasons spent primarily with Dallas’ AHL affiliate, the Texas Stars, Dellandrea burst onto the scene during the 2022-23 NHL season. In 82 games played, the young forward would score nine goals and 19 assists, good for ninth on the team as a 23-year-old. As his time on ice inevitably increases from above 14 minutes a game, Dellandrea will also see his scoring output increase, even though his other talents are the key for the Stars.

His possession numbers have left a lot to be desired, but Dellandrea’s defensive metrics are inspiring in a middle-six role for an NHL player. Last season, his oiSV% reached a total of 90.6%, and he was also able to contribute heavily to the team’s physical outlook, throwing 125 hits over the year. Given their current roster, it is difficult to see Dellandrea earning a top-six role this season, but as he improves, the Stars become a deeper team overall.

Key Departures

F Max Domi (Toronto, one-year, $3MM)
F Rhett Gardner (Philadelphia, two-year, $1.55MM)
D Benjamin Gleason (Edmonton, one-year, $775K)
F Luke Glendening (Tampa Bay, two-year, $1.6MM)
F Joel Kiviranta (Colorado, PTO)
D Ryan Shea (Pittsburgh, one-year, $775K)
F Marian Studenic (Seattle, one-year, $775K)
F Riley Tufte (Colorado, one-year, $775K)
G Dylan Wells (Nashville, PTO)

Unfortunately, the Stars did lose one of their top playoff performers last year in Domi. Although not performing incredibly well after the team acquired him at the trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks, Domi did score three goals and 10 assists in 19 playoff games for Dallas, which would land him at fourth best on the team. Thankfully, and especially with the addition of Duchene to the top of their forward group, Domi should be easily replaceable moving forward.

Glendening will be a bit harder to replace, but not for the same reasons. Not known much for his offensive performance, Glendening excels tremendously in the faceoff circle. During his two-year stint in Dallas, Glendening would finish with an absurd 58.9% faceoff win percentage, one of the best in the league. Both Benn and Radek Faksa do well in the dot, but Dallas did not do much to replace Glendening in the dot this summer.

Salary Cap Outlook

Dallas is one of the highest-paying teams in the league, clocking in at 11th overall in spending heading into the 2023-24 NHL season. The team still has four years and $39.4MM left on Seguin’s contract but does not have much to worry about for next year. Most of the team’s young talent is signed into 2025-26 or beyond, meaning as much as they are spending, they won’t need to spend more in the near future.

There are some fringe players, such as Faksa and Ryan Suter who could be considered ’overpaid’, but they will conclude before the Stars need to dole out any long-term contracts to some of their younger stars. For the best interest of the team, it would likely benefit Dallas to shed a bit of space before the trade deadline, therefore easily fitting in whatever needs they deem needed for a 2024 playoff push.

Key Questions

What To Do With Seguin? : Still averaging around 50 points a season, Seguin no longer is worth the massive contract extension the Stars gave him shortly before the 2018-19 season. He has stayed relatively healthy and is more than capable of scoring 20 goals a season, but Dallas could certainly do better. It will be hard to move Seguin given his $9.85MM AAV, so the team will have to employ him in a way that is most advantageous to their success. Nevertheless, the Stars are moving in a direction, especially given their salary cap situation, where a harder stance on Seguin’s future may need to be taken.

What Is This Team’s Ceiling?: Managing to make an appearance in two Western Conference Finals and one Stanley Cup Final in the last four years, the Stars have earned a spot as one of the top Stanley Cup contenders heading into the upcoming season. However, are they truly a solid bet to win the Stanley Cup given their current roster makeup? The Colorado Avalanche and Golden Knights are surefire favorites to win the Western Conference next year, and the Eastern Conference posits a world of trouble if the team does indeed make it to the Stanley Cup Final next season. Dallas still appears a player or two away from being a legitimate threat to Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images