Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $81,856,921 (under the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (two years, $925K)
F Marco Rossi (two years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Rossi: $850K

Rossi was viewed as a long-term option down the middle when they drafted him ninth overall in 2020 but it hasn’t happened just yet.  His post-draft season saw him battle through a life-threatening heart scare while his first two seasons in Minnesota’s system have been spent primarily in the minors.  He averaged close to a point per game in Iowa so the skills are certainly there.  If he can translate that to the NHL (he struggled in that regard last season), he could be a fixture in their lineup for a long time and as we’ve seen, productive centers can get paid quickly.

Faber joined the Wild late in the season and made an early mark, skating as a regular for them in the playoffs.  He should have a leg up on a roster spot for this year.  However, unless he sees a fair bit of power play time, it seems unlikely that Faber will be in a spot to command a long-term extension and bypass a bridge deal altogether.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Pat Maroon ($800K, UFA)*
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

*-Tampa Bay is retaining an additional $200K on Maroon’s contract

Zuccarello is a rare example of a player becoming more productive the older he gets.  After seeing his output dip at the end of his tenure with the Rangers and hover near that level in his first two years with Minnesota, the 36-year-old has had his two best offensive showings over the past two seasons.  Yes, some of that is attributable to the player lining up on his opposite wing but it would be hard to walk away from entirely who produces that much in the hopes that someone cheaper could produce as much as that same winger.  Independently, a player with Zuccarello’s recent production could make a case for a raise but with his age, that could be tough.  At this point, a one-year deal worth around $5MM could work for both sides with the AAV dropping on a two-year agreement.

Foligno looked to have turned the corner in 2021-22, posting a career year offensively but came up well short of that last season.  If he stays around the 25-30-point mark, he could command a deal similar in size to this one but as teams look to make their bottom six cheaper, he could also feel the squeeze a little bit.  Hartman wasn’t quite able to put the same numbers as his breakout 2021-22 campaign either but produced at better than a 50-point pace which is still a fantastic return on his current contract.  That’s second-line production and a second-line middleman can command more than $5MM per season on the open market.

Duhaime is a capable fourth liner who plays with plenty of physicality and chips in a bit offensively but the market for those players is starting to flat-line.  A small raise isn’t impossible – especially if he can crack the double-digit mark in goals but the AAV should still start with a one.  Maroon comes over from the Lightning to help fill the void created by the departure of Ryan Reaves to Toronto.  He fits on the fourth line but his market value shouldn’t be much higher than his current deal.  As for Dewar, the 24-year-old spent plenty of time on the fourth line as well but plays center and kills penalties, giving him a bit more earnings upside.  A small bump on the 18 points he had last season could give him a shot at coming close to doubling this contract, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Goligoski’s homecoming has been up and down, to say the least.  His first season (2021-22) saw him play an important role and when he signed this deal, it looked like a team-friendly one.  However, he struggled to crack the lineup last season and didn’t play well when he was in.  Now, it’s a deal they’d almost certainly like to move if they could but with his struggles and trade protection, that will be easier said than done and another contract is far from a guarantee.

Fleury’s first full season with Minnesota was decent.  He’s no longer a top starter but his numbers were better than the NHL average and getting that performance for the cost of a good backup is fine.  He turns 39 in November so it’s possible he’s entering his final NHL campaign.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

The first time Minnesota acquired Johansson, things didn’t go very well.  He battled injuries and struggled when he was in the lineup.  When GM Bill Guerin brought him back at the trade deadline, it was a different story as he averaged nearly a point per game down the stretch.  That’s unsustainable for him but at this price point, they don’t need that level of production.  If he can hover around the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

Middleton isn’t going to light up the scoresheet but he’s a capable stay-at-home defender who’s best suited for a fourth or fifth role on the depth chart.  That’s basically where he stands with the Wild and if he wants to push himself into a higher salary tier, his production will need to come around.  Otherwise, his market value in 2025 might be around the $3.5MM range.  Merrill is a capable depth piece that gives Minnesota some value when he’s a regular in the lineup but is overpaid when he’s in the reserve role.  If they need to open up some cap space, waiving and assigning him to the minors and calling up a cheaper defender would give them a few hundred thousand to work with.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)

Minnesota wanted a max-term deal for Kaprizov when his entry-level deal was up back in 2021 but the winger wasn’t particularly interested in one so they settled on this one instead, an agreement that bought a little more team control but positioned him to land a significant max-term contract in 2029 if he wants one at that point.  His numbers dipped a bit last season but he still played at a 92-point pace on the heels of a 105-point showing the year before.  A continuation of that level of production coupled with a projected jump in the salary cap between now and then should give Kaprizov a serious chance at pushing for a contract that would break the current record for a winger ($11.643MM).

A year ago, the thought of Gustavsson having this contract would have been shocking.  After all, he failed to establish himself as even a regular backup in Ottawa.  However, he was second in the league in GAA and SV% last season, albeit in just 37 starts.  As a result, this deal is somewhat of a compromise by paying him at the top end for a platoon option which is reflective of the role he might still have this season.  If he becomes a true number one, however, this will be a steal quickly.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Matt Boldy ($7MM through 2029-30)
D Jonas Brodin ($6MM through 2027-280
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25MM through 2028-29)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($2.1MM through 2027-28)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)

There aren’t too many players making as much as Boldy that still are waiver-exempt but that’s where things are as he has played just a season and a half worth of games.  However, Guerin feels that he’s part of the long-term plans and if he can become a consistent 30-goal scorer (he had 31 last season), he’ll be a key part of their core for a long time.  Eriksson Ek has turned the corner offensively in recent seasons, going from a checker to a capable two-way threat.  He’s giving them second-line production with strong defensive play at a rate that’s below what a lot of two-way middlemen get.  Gaudreau opted against testing free agency this summer, instead agreeing to this deal back in April.  He has gone from a fringe NHL player to a key secondary piece with the Wild and if he performs anywhere close to the level he has over the past two years, this could be a bargain agreement quickly.

Spurgeon doesn’t fit the typical profile of a number one defenseman but he’s an all-around threat for Minnesota.  They’ve managed his minutes a bit over the last couple of seasons which should continue as he turns 34 in November.  As that continues and his role lessens, this could become a bit of an above-market deal but with how much of a bargain he was previously, they probably won’t be too upset when it happens.  As for Brodin, he’s a high-quality defensive defender but his offensive production hasn’t been strong too often and took a sharp dip last season.  While he’s a very useful player for his role, paying this much (in dollars and term) for a shutdown blueliner is an overpayment in this market.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise ($7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K in 2025-26 through 2028-29)
D Ryan Suter ($7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K in 2025-26 through 2028-29)

We mention the buyouts often when we talk about the Wild but it is a significant part of their roster planning.  Nearly $14.75MM in dead cap space for an entire season (not just pro-rated moves at the trade deadline) is unprecedented (the cost went up $1MM each for this season) and reduces their spending power by 17.7%.  The good news is that these buyouts are only anchors for two more seasons before it becomes much more manageable.

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Calen Addison

Addison was a regular for most of the regular season but had a limited role when he was in the lineup.  In the playoffs, he was scratched for a handful of games.  On the other hand, he had 29 points which is pretty impressive for a young blueliner.  It was reported earlier this summer that they were hoping he’d sign for his qualifying offer of $787.5K or close to that.  Clearly, he doesn’t want to do that but with what they have left for cap room, a one-year deal is their best option.

Best Value: Hartman
Worst Value: Brodin

Looking Ahead

Assuming Addison gets a one-year deal, Minnesota should be able to start the season in cap compliance without much issue.  However, they’ll have a roster that’s well below the maximum of 23 to get there.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Rossi and Faber shuffled down at times to bank a bit more cap space; waiving and doing the same with Merrill could help.  Last year, they had a bunch of money banked to use at the deadline but this time, that is unlikely to happen.

Looking to 2024-25, they have $18MM in expiring contracts but with Zuccarello needing a new deal, Hartman heading for a big raise, and the Wild needing a partner in goal for Gustavsson, that money is going to be spent quickly; a core upgrade isn’t likely to happen.  But again, the buyout charges drop sharply for 2025-26 and that will be when Guerin will be in a position to try to make a splash.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.