Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $83,817,829 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Thomas Harley (one year, $863K)
F Wyatt Johnston (two years, $894K)
D Nils Lundkvist (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Lundkvist: $850K
Harley: $637.5K
Total: $1.4875MM

Johnston could have gone back to junior last season but it’s safe to say that Dallas made the right call with him as he potted 24 goals in his age-19 campaign.  If he can stick in their top six and take a step or two forward offensively, he’s a strong candidate to bypass a bridge deal, especially with a big-ticket one coming off the books at the same time that he needs his second contract.

Dallas paid a high price to get Lundkvist from the Rangers last season but he wound up only playing a limited role.  They’re banking on him taking a step forward but even so, he’s a strong candidate for a short-term second contract, one that could check in around the $1.5MM range.  At this point, it doesn’t seem too likely that he’ll hit his four ‘A’ bonuses.  The Stars are banking on Harley to make the jump full-time this season after being a regular in the playoffs.  With some good numbers in the minors, he could reach one or two of his three ‘A’ bonuses but from a contract standpoint, like Lundkvist, he’s likely heading for a bridge deal as well.

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

D Gavin Bayreuther ($775K, UFA)
F Ty Dellandrea ($900K, RFA)
F Matt Duchene ($3MM, UFA)
D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($850K, RFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($1MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Pavelski: $2MM

Duchene was a late entrant to the market which likely didn’t help his cause but he landed in a good spot here.  In a more secondary role, he could thrive and in doing so, give the Stars some surplus value while better positioning himself for a longer-term agreement next summer.  Smith struggled last season between Boston and Washington, even clearing waivers at one point in December thanks to his contract.  He’s an interesting fit in the sense that he’s not a prototypical bottom-six forward but will be in that role here.  A bounce-back showing could give him a small bump next summer but not to the level of the $3.25MM he made before.

Pavelski’s fourth season with the Stars was almost as good as his third, one that saw him set career highs in assists and points.  He came up a bit shy of the point total but still finished third in scoring in a year that saw him turn 39.  Pavelski almost certainly left money on the table to sign what should be a team-friendly extension back in January as let’s face it, the market for a center producing close to a point per game is much higher than his guaranteed salary.  The structure of this agreement is notable as the bonuses are very easy to achieve – $1MM at 10 games played and another $1MM at 20.  Doing it that way allows Dallas to squeak him in on the books this year with his base salary but it’s safe to say they’re heading for an overage penalty.

Dallas basically had to push Dellandrea to take a one-year deal to make things work cap-wise.  He’ll have arbitration rights next summer though and if he progresses as expected, his AAV should shoot past the $2MM mark.  Steel has been non-tendered for two straight years now but gives Dallas some extra depth down the middle.  However, it’s clear he’ll need to find another gear offensively if he wants a shot at a seven-figure deal as his market value the last two summers hasn’t been strong.

Hakanpaa is the type of physical depth defender many teams covet and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a right-hand shot.  Dallas actually used him on the second pairing with some regularity last season and if he’s in that role again, doubling his current price tag won’t be out of the question, especially after seeing Radko Gudas get three years at $4MM per season earlier this summer.  Bayruether returns after spending a few years with Columbus and will push for the seventh spot on the depth chart.  This is a spot on their salary hierarchy that will need to stay near the minimum moving forward.

Wedgewood had his best season, albeit in a relatively limited role for a backup by current standards as he made just 21 appearances.  His track record isn’t strong (or long) enough to command the type of money that top backups on the open market get but another showing like last year could push him closer to the $2MM mark if he looks for top dollar.  Staying in Dallas, however, would likely mean needing to leave some money on the table.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Radek Faksa ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($787.5K, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Ryan Suter ($3.65MM, UFA)

After seeing his production drop sharply over the last three years, Benn had a resurgent campaign, finishing second on the team in scoring.  It wouldn’t be fair to expect that to happen again – and the deal is still very much above-market – but it’s not quite the anchor it was long ago.  Faksa’s offense just hasn’t come around.  He’s a strong defensive center that’s above average at the faceoff dot but someone in that type of role should be making about a million less.  Gone are the days of the argument of offensive potential so it’s tough to see him beating this contract in 2025.  Dadonov did well after coming over in a late-season trade but his struggles with Montreal hurt his value, allowing the Stars to sneak in with a deal that’s more than reasonable for a middle-six option.

Lindell is another player whose scoring didn’t come around quite as much as Dallas would have hoped for.  He’s still capable of logging big minutes and anchoring the penalty kill so they’re still getting a reasonable return but they’re probably expecting a bit more from him and he’ll need to produce more if he wants to land a big pay increase two years from now.  They also were probably expecting a bit more from Suter, a player who shouldn’t be logging 20 minutes a night at this stage of his career but was pressed into that spot frequently.  It’s hard to see him signing another contract at this point – he’ll be 40 when this deal is up – but if he does, it should be for considerably less.  Hanley has been a depth defender for the last few years and will continue to hover around the NHL minimum moving forward unless he can establish himself as a full-time third-pairing player.

Oettinger’s bridge contract already looks like a bargain as he was one of the top goalies in the league last season.  The backloaded structure guarantees an increase to $4.8MM for his qualifying offer (which also carries arbitration eligibility) but if he has two more years like this, he’ll be well-positioned to become one of the top-paid netminders in the league.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)

Robertson is on the non-traditional bridge contract, a four-year agreement that bought out only RFA years while still having team control when it expires.  At that point, it’s going to take a substantial offer to get him on a long-term agreement.  Robertson will be owed a $9.3MM qualifying offer (plus arbitration eligibility) but it will take a million or two more if he continues on his current trajectory.  Marchment, a late-bloomer, took a step back last season while dealing with injuries once again.  There’s a power forward premium in his deal but they’d still like to see him closer to the 40-point mark to get a good return on this deal and set him up for a similar-sized agreement in 2026.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

D Miro Heiskanen ($8.45MM through 2028-29)
F Roope Hintz ($8.45MM through 2030-31)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM through 2026-27)

Seguin is no longer the top center he was early in his tenure with the Stars.  That’s unfortunate for them since they’re paying him like one for four more years.  He’s still a quality secondary producer but he’s certainly overpaid by a few million a season.  Hintz’s bargain bridge deal is up but this one could still provide some value for Dallas.  He surpassed the point-per-game mark last season and if he can maintain that, this will be a below-market deal relatively quickly.

Heiskanen’s offense took off last season as he more than doubled his previous career-best point total, going from 36 to 73.  He wasn’t quite able to maintain that level of production in the playoffs but still managed to pick up a dozen points in three rounds.  At the lower point total, the contract was still more than reasonable with the heavy minutes he was logging.  But if he can stay even near 73 points moving forward?  Then it would be a significant bargain based on comparables around the NHL.  If he stays on that trajectory, he’s someone who could be positioned to best the AAV of the current top-paid blueliner league-wide, Pittsburgh’s Erik Karlsson, when he hits the open market in 2029 when he’ll only be 30.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Pavelski
Worst Value: Seguin

Looking Ahead

Dallas will need to trim their projected roster to get cap-compliant, a move that can be made by clearing out a defenseman.  Harley is waiver-exempt but should be a regular for them which means it’s likely one of Bayreuther or Hanley that gets waived off the roster.  That buys them a few hundred thousand in cap space which isn’t enough for a recall for a few months, nor does it allow them to bank much cap room.  With Pavelski’s bonuses and possibly some entry-level ones on the horizon, they’ll be hard-pressed to offset much of the overage penalty that’s coming their way.

The good news is that the Stars have a relatively clean cap situation moving forward.  A bump to the cap should allow them to deal with their pending free agents and when Benn comes off the books in 2025, they can use his money to re-sign Johnston, Lindell, and Oettinger.  They won’t be in a spot to make another core addition but they should be able to keep this core in place for a little while.  That’s a pretty good spot to be in.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.