Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2023-24 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $88,475,000 (over the $83.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to make the opening roster

Signed Through 2023-24, Non-Entry-Level

F Andrew Cogliano ($825K, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($825K, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($2MM, UFA)
D/F Kurtis MacDermid ($987.5K, UFA)
F Ben Meyers ($775K, RFA)
F Fredrik Olofsson ($775K, UFA)
D Devon Toews ($4.1MM, UFA)

With cap space at a premium, the Avs had to shop for some bargains in free agency this summer.  Drouin comes over from Montreal coming off a year that saw him score just twice although he added 27 assists.  If he can lock down a role in the middle six, it won’t take much for them to get surplus value on this deal while he’d be positioned for a better contract a year from now.  Cogliano returns after being one of the few consistently effective bottom-six forwards for Colorado last season.  At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year from now on in all likelihood.

Meyers struggled in half a season with the Avalanche in 2022-23 but should get another look while Olofsson will push for a spot as well after being acquired from Dallas.  Those spots on the depth chart will need to stay at or close to the league minimum moving forward.  MacDermid can play both the wing and on the back end but while the versatility is nice, his playing time is limited in either role.  That makes him more of an end of the roster candidate which will keep his next cap hit around this price point.

The same certainly can’t be said about Toews.  Since being acquired from the Islanders as a salary cap casualty three years ago, he has blossomed into a legitimate top-pairing defender.  In each of the last two seasons, he has recorded at least 50 points and logged more than 25 minutes a night.  Only four other blueliners in the league are in that category: Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Cale Makar.  Not a bad group to be in.  Josi, Hughes, and Makar are already on pricey long-term deals and Dahlin is a year away from doing so.  Meanwhile, Toews is on the books at second-pairing money for another ten months.  He’ll be doubling it and then some soon enough.

Francouz, when healthy, has been quite an effective goalie for Colorado, posting a career save percentage of .919.  However, over four seasons, he has only played in 73 games so it’s still a pretty small sample size.  That is definitely limiting his earnings upside as he needs to show he can stay healthy for a full year and maintain that strong level of play.  If he can do that, his AAV could push up toward the $4MM range if he looks to test the open market.

Signed Through 2024-25

D Bowen Byram ($3.85MM, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.2MM, UFA)
F Ryan Johansen ($4MM, UFA)*
F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)

*-Nashville is retaining an additional $4MM on Johansen’s contract

Rantanen has flown under the radar to an extent but he’s undoubtedly a premier winger in his own right and is coming off a career year that saw him score 55 goals.  If he’s able to stay near that rate over the next two years, he’ll have a strong chance of beating Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM) for the most expensive contract given to a winger in NHL history.  Johansen hasn’t lived up to his contract but with the Preds eating half of it, Johansen should provide some value assuming he locks up the second center position.  If he hovers around the 40-point mark, his next deal should check in around what Colorado will be paying him for the next two years.  O’Connor has worked his way from being a depth piece to a reliable third liner at a below-market rate.  Even if he stays in the mid-20-point range, he could add another million to his next deal.

Byram’s acceptance of a bridge contract this summer came as little surprise.  When healthy, he has become an impactful blueliner but with Colorado’s cap situation and his concussion history, it would have been difficult to find a long-term agreement that worked for both sides.  Notably, the deal is significantly backloaded, pushing the qualifying offer to $4.62MM.  That said, if Byram can stay healthy these next two seasons, there’s a very good chance he’d be getting considerably more than that on a long-term pact at that time.

Georgiev was somewhat of a risky acquisition by then-GM Joe Sakic.  He was coming off a down year and hadn’t yet played 35 games in an NHL season.  Fast forward to one year later and he put up career-best numbers across the board in 62 appearances.  Now, he is a legitimate starter for them making platoon money.  Two more years like this would push his price tag into the range of the goalie he replaced (Darcy Kuemper who received five years at $5.25MM from Washington).

Signed Through 2025-26

D Josh Manson ($4.5MM, UFA)

Manson’s first full season with Colorado didn’t go well as he was limited to just 27 games due to multiple lower-body injuries.  And when he was in the lineup, his deployment was that of a fifth defender most nights.  This price tag for that role is on the high side and it has now been four straight years that Manson has missed significant time due to injury.  At this point, it seems like it will be difficult for the Avs to get a good return on this contract.

Signed Through 2026-27 Or Longer

F Ross Colton ($4MM through 2026-27)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM through 2026-27)
F Gabriel Landeskog ($7MM through 2028-29)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM through 2026-27)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM through 2030-31)
D Cale Makar ($9MM through 2026-27)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125MM through 2029-30)
F Miles Wood ($2.5MM through 2028-29)

MacKinnon signed this contract just under a year ago, one that was the richest in NHL history in terms of AAV, doubling his previous cap charge in the process.  That has already since been surpassed with Auston Matthews signing his extension recently.  Nevertheless, MacKinnon certainly earned this contract as he has been one of the most productive players in the league.  Over the last six years, only two players have produced more points than him (they both play for Edmonton).  In the playoffs, his point-per-game average increases from 1.07 to 1.30 and he plays a premium position.  Will this contract ever be a bargain?  Probably not but they should still get a reasonable return on this deal as long as he stays healthy.

Landeskog, meanwhile, has plenty of questions about his future.  He missed all of last season with a lingering knee injury and ultimately underwent a cartilage transplant back in May that will keep him out for 2023-24.  He’ll be on LTIR as a result which is how Colorado will be cap-compliant to start the season.  Will he be on there for longer?  That’s the bigger question they’ll be wondering about over the coming months.  Nichushkin’s breakout showing in 2021-22 earned him this contract and when he was healthy during the regular season, he was quite productive once again, producing at basically a front-line level.  As long as he keeps doing that, they’ll get good value on his deal.

Lehkonen had a career year in his first full season while seeing his playing time jump to over 20 minutes a night; he had never averaged more than 16:29 per night in his first six seasons.  In a better offensive environment than he had with Montreal, he should be able to produce enough to justify the price tag while his defensive game certainly plays a big role in his value as well.  Colton comes over from Tampa Bay in an effort to rebuild the bottom six.  With 38 goals combined over his two full NHL campaigns, Colorado will need him to continue to hover around the 20-goal average to justify this deal.  Wood’s cap hit is reasonable for someone that’s likely to slot in on the third line and put up double-digit goals although the six-year term was a bit surprising.  That was the trade-off over a shorter term but a higher AAV, presumably, which helps him fit better in their salary structure.

Colorado took a slightly different approach with Makar than they did with their forwards, opting to sign him for six years instead of eight, allowing them to get a more affordable AAV.  Even at $9MM, he has already provided surplus value on this agreement.  Four years from now, he’s likely to take aim at a record-setting deal for a defenseman; Erik Karlsson at $11.5MM is the benchmark there.  Girard is a capable top-four blueliner who happens to be coming off a career year offensively.  Even so, his future appears to be in some question as if they want to re-sign Toews, they’re going to need to cut money somewhere.  Girard is someone who should have enough value to still yield a strong return compared to attaching assets to move Manson.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Toews
Worst Value: Manson

Looking Ahead

While Colorado has just shy of $5MM in LTIR space at the moment, they will need to at least budget some of that money for in-season recalls when injuries strike.  Unlike regular cap space, LTIR space doesn’t accrue during the season so what they have now is what they have all season to work with.  Accordingly, they can look to add a piece now or wait and see how things go over the first couple of months and see what their needs are at that time.  Speculatively, they’re better positioned than most to try to sign Patrick Kane when he’s ready to play midseason.

Beyond 2023-24, a lot depends on Landeskog.  If he’s able to return, they’ll be facing quite a crunch with $76.775MM in commitments to just 13 players for 2024-25.  A new deal for Toews alone would bring them pretty close to the cap for that season let alone trying to fill out the rest of the roster.  A healthy Landeskog means the Avalanche will likely need to sell a key player or two.  If he can’t come back, however, then they have a bit more flexibility, albeit with a need to use offseason LTIR for another half-decade.  With big-ticket extensions on the horizon, Colorado is one of the teams that could benefit the most from a sizable jump in the Upper Limit over the next couple of years.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.