2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Eleventh Overall Pick

Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall:  Victor Hedman, New York Islanders (2)
2nd Overall: John Tavares, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
3rd Overall: Ryan O’Reilly, Colorado Avalanche (33)
4th Overall: Matt Duchene, Atlanta Thrashers (3)
5th Overall: Chris Kreider, Los Angeles Kings (19)
6th Overall: Nazem Kadri, Phoenix Coyotes (7)
7th Overall:  Mattias Ekholm, Toronto Maple Leafs (102)
8th Overall: Evander Kane, Dallas Stars (4)
9th Overall: Brayden Schenn, Ottawa Senators (5)
10th Overall: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Edmonton Oilers (6)

PHR readers have opted to give the Oilers an addition on defense rather than offense with the 10th overall pick this time around, awarding them Ekman-Larsson with 30% of the vote. In doing so, the original top seven selections are now off the board, with Kane and Ekman-Larsson, our biggest fallers so far, dropping four selections each.

Unlike many other defenders, Ekman-Larsson’s development was not a slow burn. His best seasons came before his 25th birthday, consistently earning Norris Trophy consideration while holding down a top-pair role for the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes. He had captured a top-four role before his 21st birthday, playing in all 82 games during his sophomore 2011-12 season and posting 32 points while averaging over 22 minutes per game.

However, after four more seasons of producing like a top-flight defender, Ekman-Larsson began to show signs of decline. His point production waned slightly, and while his combined -53 rating between the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons is much more a reflection of the team around him, his possession numbers were not nearly up to par with the more dominant two-way play he’d displayed in the years prior. The Coyotes named him captain in 2018 after the retirement of Shane Doan, but his play continued to slowly dwindle until the organization cut ties in 2021, dealing him, along with Conor Garland and other ancillary pieces, to the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks bought out the remainder of his eight-year, $66MM extension signed with Arizona in 2018 this summer, resulting in the largest non-compliance buyout in league history.

The 32-year-old defender will now try and turn things around nearly as far away from Vancouver as you can get in the NHL, signing a one-year, $2.25MM deal with the Florida Panthers in free agency. He recorded two goals and 22 points in 54 games for the Canucks last season, alongside a -24 rating and a career-worst -3% relative Corsi For at even strength.

Despite his downfall, Ekman-Larsson’s peak years with the Coyotes were much better than any defender the Oilers had to offer at the time, and drafting him could have easily changed the team’s trajectory throughout the early 2010s. Of course, that would mean losing out on Connor McDavid and the first-overall pick in 2015.

Now, we move to the 11th overall selection in 2009: the Nashville Predators. They’re likely happy with their original choice, Ryan Ellis, as he contributed in a top-four role for the better part of 562 games with the franchise before a psoas muscle injury cut his career short after a deal to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2021. However, do you think there’s a better player not yet taken in our series? Vote in the poll below:

If you can’t access the poll above, you can click here to vote.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.