Summer Synopsis: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets shocked the hockey world last summer. After years where the prevailing narrative surrounding the Blue Jackets was about the multitude of star players who left the team to commit their long-term playing future elsewhere (Sergei Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin, Seth Jones, et cetera) the team managed to sign the top free agent on the open market. They got superstar Johnny Gaudreau to commit the rest of his prime playing years to Columbus, and on the way seemed to accelerate their path back to contention.

Significant injury issues, regression from some important players (such as Cole Sillinger and Elvis Merzlikins), and a lack of talent down the middle left Columbus as one of the league’s worst teams last season, and according to some has firmly placed GM Jarmo Jarmo Jarmo Kekäläinen on the hot seat. In response to mounting pressure to return to contention, Kekäläinen had an aggressive summer and added a big-name head coach. Will this new-look Blue Jackets team be able to turn the team’s fortunes around as soon as next season?

Draft

1-3: F Adam Fantilli, Michigan (NCAA)
2-34: F Gavin Brindley, Michigan (NCAA)
3-66: F William Whitelaw, Youngstown (USHL)
4-98: D Andrew Strathmann, Youngstown (USHL)
4-114: F Luca Pinelli, Ottawa (OHL)
5-156: G Melvin Strahl, MoDo Jr. (J20)
7-194: F Oiva Keskinen, Tappara Jr. (SM-Sarja)
7-224: F Tyler Peddle, Drummondville (QMJHL)

While the Blue Jackets were undoubtedly disappointed to have lost in the draft lottery and missed out on a once-in-a-generation player in Connor Bedard, their luck definitely turned around on draft night. The Anaheim Ducks selected Leo Carlsson, a fantastic prospect in his own right, second overall, leaving the Blue Jackets the chance to pick Fantilli, the reigning Hobey Baker award winner.

There were many rumors that the Blue Jackets would have selected USNTDP product Will Smith had Fantilli been selected by Anaheim over Carlsson, meaning they would have been left with a player who’ll only hit the NHL ice next spring at the earliest. (Smith is committed to play college hockey next season at Boston College) Since the Ducks took Carlsson, though, the Blue Jackets were able to land a prospect widely considered to be NHL-ready, and a player many believe to be the clear-cut best player in the class behind Bedard.

Fantilli could very well end up the franchise-defining first-line center the Blue Jackets have been searching for since their very first season in the NHL, and getting that caliber of a player after losing a draft lottery is an amazing stroke of luck. Behind Fantilli, the Blue Jackets invested heavily in prospects playing in America, investing their next three selections in NCAA and USHL players. Brindley was Fantilli’s linemate at Michigan and could very well end up playing that role in the NHL. Whitelaw and Strathmann were teammates for the USHL Champion Youngstown Phantoms, with Whitelaw the team’s leading scorer and Strathmann a minutes-eating blueliner. Both USHL products play with an edge and will develop in college hockey before turning pro.

Trade Acquisitions

D Ivan Provorov (from Philadelphia)
D Damon Severson (from New Jersey)

This is where the Blue Jackets really made their mark on the offseason. The team identified its defense as a core area of need entering into the summer. Their lack of established defensive talent was exposed last season after numerous injuries took out the team’s more experienced players, such as Zach Werenski. In order to make the playoffs, Columbus knew that they would have to give top-four minutes to reliable players rather than resort to unproven names such as Tim Berni, Marcus Bjork, and Gavin Bayreuther, three names who saw time on the Blue Jackets’ defense last season.

In Provorov, Columbus acquired a somewhat enigmatic defenseman whose career features some very high highs and some even lower lows. Provorov was once viewed as an up-and-coming future number-one defenseman for the Flyers, and at times he looked like an elite all-situations minutes-eater.

He earned some stray Norris Trophy votes after his 2019-20 season, when at the age of 23 he played nearly 25 minutes per night and scored 36 points in 69 games.

In Columbus, Provorov won’t need to be that kind of number-one blueliner his team relies on. With Werenski entrenched in that role, the hope in Columbus is that Provorov will be able to thrive on a second pairing.

As for Severson, the Blue Jackets surrendered a mid-round pick to be able to sign Severson to a maximum-term $6.25MM AAV contract. The at-the-time pending UFA committed to Columbus without testing the wider market, and lands as a potential partner for Provorov. Severson has more of an offensive bent to his game and scored 46 points in 2021-22. He took a step back last season as the Devils injected more defensive talent into their lineup, relegating Severson to a smaller role.

In Columbus, he’ll be a go-to offensive creator from the back end, and while many fairly question whether Severson merited such a lengthy commitment (he’ll be under contract with the Blue Jackets through 2030-31, and is already 29 years old) he undoubtedly makes their team better for next season.

Key RFA Signings

F Mathieu Olivier (two-years, $2.2MM)
F Trey Fix-Wolansky (two-years, $1.55MM)
D Jake Christiansen (one year, $775k)

The Blue Jackets didn’t have any major RFA’s to re-sign, just some NHL-relevant players who figure to factor into new head coach Mike Babcock’s roster picture at some point next season. Getting Olivier, 26, locked into a two-year deal gives Columbus a physical presence on its fourth line at a reasonable cost. The Blue Jackets want to be a difficult team to play against, and re-signing Olivier helps them do that.

Fix-Wolansky, 24, torched the AHL last season to the tune of 71 points in 61 games. This two-year deal keeps him on the Blue Jackets at a cheap price for the foreseeable future, although since he’s not waivers-exempt there’s always the chance that he doesn’t finish this contract playing in Ohio. As for Christiansen, this will be his first season subject to waivers and his league-minimum price tag makes him an intriguing option to be claimed should he fail to make Columbus’ opening-night roster. The soon-to-be-24-year-old blueliner scored 34 points in 50 AHL games last season.

Key Departures

D Gavin Bayreuther (Dallas, one year, $775k)

The Blue Jackets were in the relatively uncommon position this summer of not really being at risk of losing any major contributors to their NHL roster without explicitly choosing to do so. Their most experienced player to sign elsewhere was Bayreuther, a journeyman defenseman who stepped in after Columbus was hit by significant injuries and ended up playing 51 NHL games.

The 29-year-old signed in Dallas and will likely remain a depth defenseman there. The Blue Jackets could certainly have used Bayreuther’s experience for another season, but the reality is if he ended up having another extended NHL stay in Columbus it would mean the team’s defensive corps is once again in dire shape.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Blue Jackets have some hefty contracts on their books, starting with Gaudreaus and extending to some expensive mid-range deals cap hits belonging to Severson, Provorov, and Erik Gudbranson. They have a bit of wiggle room to make a mid-season addition, and since they’re set to avoid long-term injured reserve will be able to bank cap space during the season for a potential trade deadline spending spree.

The most important aspect of this season from a financial perspective is the team’s performance in net. Columbus has committed $5.4MM AAV for the next few years into Merzlikins. Can he get back to playing like a quality starting netminder and reward the team’s faith in him?

Key Questions

Can Mike Babcock steer this team to the playoffs?: The Blue Jackets are looking to reach the postseason in an extremely competitive Metro division. They’ve enlisted the services of Babcock, a controversial coach who, at the very least, has quite a bit of winning on his resume. He helped turn a lost Toronto Maple Leafs franchise into the regular season juggernaut we see today, and won a Stanley Cup ring running the bench of the Detroit Red Wings. Will he be able to engineer a similar success in Ohio?

Which of the team’s young players will rise, who will fall?: The Blue Jackets have an enviable crop of young talent and a few players who have a chance to become stars in the NHL. Sillinger, the team’s 2021 first-round pick, looked to be on that track before a brutal sophomore campaign. Similarly, many had questions over whether Kent Johnson’s high-octane offensive game would translate from college to the pro ranks without serious adjustment time. Johnson had a promising 40-point rookie campaign, to a strong degree silencing those questions. The Blue Jackets have even more ascending talents set to battle for roles on Babcock’s roster, so a main question regarding their 2023/24 season will be who among that group will rise to the top.

Can Merzlikins bounce back?: As mentioned, the Blue Jackets have committed much of their future to Merzlikins in net. They don’t really have any great method of getting out from under that contract, so their best bet is to support Merzlikins with an improved defense and hope he can return to the form he flashed earlier in his career. Whether he does so will go a long way in determining if this Blue Jackets competitive push ends up successful.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images