Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Boston, the state of San Jose’s rebuild, and more. As we’ve done with the last few mailbag submissions, we’ll break it up into three separate columns so if your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in one of the next two.
SkidRowe: How will the Bruins fare this year? The reigning Presidents Trophy winners are returning with virtually the same defense and goaltending as last year but lost almost a third of their offense due to the departures of Bergeron, Krejci, Hall, Bertuzzi, etc.
I’ll qualify this by saying that I’m not convinced the roster they have today in mid-August is the one we’ll see when the puck drops in October. I think they have a move coming to help up front. Not a high-end one with a big-name player but I expect them to upgrade their secondary scoring at some point. If they do more than I think they will, this prediction could change as a result.
But for now, I have them just missing. (Which is where I had them last year and look how accurate that prediction turned out…) Offensively, they’ve taken a couple of steps back which could put them back closer to the middle of the pack. Not that they needed to outscore a lot of problems last season but a more average attack will take some wins off the board.
Without as much puck control, I’m also a bit concerned about their goaltending. It would be unrealistic to expect both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to have career years again in general but without an offense as dominant, that will also put more pressure on the netminders. I expect them to still be above average but nowhere near the extent they were last season. That will take some more wins off the board unless they find a way to play at the same level.
Boston’s roster is still decent, all things considered. But with Toronto, Florida, and Tampa Bay in the picture, decent isn’t good enough to leapfrog those teams. I think this could be the year Buffalo puts it together long enough to squeak in and with the depth in the Metropolitan Division, the Atlantic isn’t getting both Wild Card spots. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bruins found a way to get in but right now, I have them just on the outside looking in.
PyramidHeadcrab: What do you think of the Sharks’ roster after the Karlsson trade, and their future roadmap now that his salary is (mostly) clear?
In terms of what their roster looks like now, my thought is that it’s a roster designed with the intention to try to bottom out. There’s no way a team is going to improve after losing Brent Burns, Timo Meier, and Erik Karlsson in the span of 13 months. The fact they opted to move the two veterans in a marketplace that wasn’t exactly favorable for high-priced contracts only cemented the fact that they weren’t looking for a short-term turnaround.
They’re going to struggle to score even with some of the additions they’ve made up front; I think Mikael Granlund could rebound relatively well there but this is still a group that should be at the bottom of the pack offensively. Defensively, they’re in big trouble as a few of the options on their projected roster are either fringe pieces or overpaid veterans struggling to hang onto a spot. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the speculated trade with Vancouver happen closer to training camp which would add Tyler Myers but that still wouldn’t move the needle much. There are questions with both goaltenders as well (although there is also some possible upside) and the end result is a forecast for a painful season.
In terms of a future roadmap, however, it’s relatively clean. They only have three contracts above $5MM left and around 40% of their roster is on an expiring contract next summer. That will give GM Mike Grier some flexibility to perhaps get involved as a third-party facilitator in the future to try to restock the prospect cupboards more quickly while flipping some of those expiring deals in the meantime. The next few years are going to be rough but it’s pretty clear what the plan is. Getting to this point is the easy part, however. Building it back up will take some patience and skill to get and develop the right pieces.
Jasen: I am curious about the Flames this year… My gut feeling is that both Lindholm and Backlund will re-sign. My other gut feeling is that Hanifin will be traded. I am thinking a one-for-one for Carolina’s Pesce. Thoughts?
I am also not sold on a bounce-back season from Markstrom. Sure, his stats do demonstrate that he did come back from a bad season before, but I’m still not sold. Markstrom, so I’d ship him to WPG for Hellebuyck. Problem is that we are light on 1st rounders. So Markstrom, 2025 2nd & prospect Zary for Hellebuyck. Thoughts?
I’m with you on Elias Lindholm eventually re-signing. Mikael Backlund is more of a maybe but I expect an in-season decision on that front. I also agree that it looks unlikely that Noah Hanifin will be back.
That said, I’m not sure I agree with the proposed trade. Carolina has a bit of a surplus on the back end so they may not want to take a defender back for whichever one they moved (Brett Pesce or Brady Skjei). Meanwhile, the impetus for moving Hanifin now would be the contract situation; GM Craig Conroy has said he doesn’t want to run the risk of letting a player go for nothing. Trading for Pesce doesn’t fix that since he’s on an expiring deal too. Now, if Pesce comes with a new contract, then sure, this makes more sense for Calgary. But otherwise, it feels like they need to get an asset back that’s likely to still be there a year from now.
The same concern comes up for your Connor Hellebuyck proposal. If he isn’t willing to sign an extension, you’ve now moved a quality goalie and a first-round prospect in Connor Zary for a short-term rental. Perhaps more importantly, you’ve moved those pieces for a rental that might not be enough of a difference-maker to get Calgary back into the playoffs. What you’ve proposed might be enough on Winnipeg’s end (especially since they’re hoping to avoid a full-scale rebuild) I don’t think the value is there for the Flames. Sure, there’s an eventual pathway to Dustin Wolf getting a full-time job but there are better ways to accomplish that than this.
I’m more confident than you seem to be about Markstrom bouncing back. The track record is there and this is a team that still has a pretty good back end as things stand. If they decide to move him down the road to make room for Wolf, that’s an easier move to make next summer off an improved showing than it is now.
Black Ace57: With the whole ordeal with Ivan Fedotov I was wondering what powers the IIHF has in this dispute and any future disputes between the NHL and KHL until an agreement between the leagues is made again.
I have to admit, I’m a bit unsure about this one as we’re wading in uncharted waters here. The IIHF is a neutral third party here and since they’re the governing body for most leagues internationally, I suspect there’s some sort of dispute resolution rights within their charter that gives them the authority to do this.
I’m more intrigued to see what happens if the ruling goes in Philadelphia’s favor. Considering that Russia hasn’t been granted the right to return to international competition, some are already calling for the federation to withdraw from the IIHF. An unfavorable ruling here could only cement that mindset. If that happens and the KHL tries to operate independently of everything, let’s just say that could be really interesting to follow.
While we’re on the Fedotov matter, I’m at least a little surprised the Flyers are doing this. Fedotov is going straight to unrestricted free agency when his tolled deal is played out. At this point, it seems reasonable to think his intention is to stay in the KHL which would make him a one-and-done player. Wouldn’t they be better off with his one-and-done cost-controlled year coming when they’re trying to be more competitive?
They already have Carter Hart in place. The extension they gave to Samuel Ersson (which seemed a bit pricey and a bit too early) suggests they have NHL plans for him next season. If Fedotov winds up with Philadelphia, now he’s backing up Hart and Ersson is in the minors, putting him on an above-market bridge deal the next year. There’s sticking up for the principle of the matter but from a team value perspective, they might be better off with a ruling that says he has to play out the KHL deal first and then must fulfill the NHL agreement.
Yzerplan19: Thoughts on what impact Babcock can have on the Blue Jackets? They have a new D group, and some talented players, with a good system could they be in the Wild Card conversation this year? Or next?
I covered Columbus and Babcock a bit in a recent mailbag so I’ll piggyback off those thoughts. They’ll be better but I don’t see them being in the playoff mix next season. The Metropolitan is pretty deep as it is and I have a hard time seeing them get around 35 more points than last season.
I’m even a bit iffy on their fortunes for 2024-25. There is a good young nucleus in place but they’re not near their primes just yet. I think 2025-26 is the year for them to really turn it around. By then, that young core will be more established and will have gone through enough of the early growing pains that many young teams face which will have them well-positioned to make a push.
I actually don’t mind the Mike Babcock hire. Last season was ugly and they need some structure. Yes, his last few seasons behind an NHL bench weren’t great but he was widely considered a top coach in the past. A good system, and perhaps more importantly, good structure, should aid in the development of some of their core youngsters. That should help them improve in the standings and give GM Jarmo Kekalainen a better assessment of what they have and what they still need which is quite important. But even with the pickups they made on the back end, I don’t see that getting them to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Truth hurts. Remember these zingers earlier this week from crab: “I actually quite like San Jose’s roster on Forward as it stands. A good mix of talent and role players.” And “I think the sharks will finish 10th in their conference”.
I agree with Brian completely. The casual savagery of “designed to bottom out” really captures how bad they are. Greir trying his best to put something together and it still looks like a tank job. Still really salty he didn’t just eat 50% and trade Karlsson at the deadline… we could have Bedard AND better additional assets now.
The best solution would have been Fedotov having taken a 1 year deal. No spot for him in Philly ATM.
Thank you for the IIHF answer! As to what would happen if Fedotov joined the Flyers I assume they put him in the AHL to both adjust to the North American rink size and his lack of hockey last year. What’s more interesting is what you said about this being a minor fight with much larger implications.
I’m more sure on the question. To wit, the IIHF has zero authority here. The NHL does not recognize the IIHF’s authority (obviously), and all those transfer arrangements with other European leagues are bilateral deals … not deals between the NHL and the IIHF. Perhaps the NHL could accept the IIHF as arbitrator here, but I don’t see that happening — slippery slope and all.
I think you are right on that. My next question, and one I might ask next mailbag, is if things continue how they are how likely do we go back to the Russian Five or Evgeni Malkin defection days?
Huh. Good question. Putin’s 70 now and Russian men are notorious for dying early, but he’s been an athlete, his partner’s a gymnast, and a lot of blather over the years about his health has proven to be damp squibs. No one knows what a post-Putin Russia will look like.